Value Analyst Providing Outside Idea Generation & Research Services. Access Free Research: https://nitter.cf/t.co/f5vYmGVLp2 Not Investment Advice
Joined February 2023
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100xcompounding.substack.com…
We are relaunching our Substack with a new content cadence and podcast platform - check it out.
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Join me for a Saturday morning coffee talk to chat capital allocation, the issues with conventional wisdom and debt.
French Debt is called irrelevant to world markets by some analysts - we disagree.
A capital control environment or a direct or defacto default on French debt would threaten global liquidity and spread quickly.
We detail how France got here, How it is likely going to be forced to proceed, and the investment implications for such a world.
Enjoy and have a great weekend.
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TheDailyCompounder retweeted
Cheaper than at the beginning of the year.
However, the market materially improved.
Utilisation is approaching 100%. Dayrates are increasing.
$RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $ODL.OL $BORR
BREAKING: Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa calls for a “halt” on AI data center development until new laws are enacted, per CNN.
“We need to stop what we are doing with data centers until we have those protections,” she said.
Hinojosa will be Texas’ first Democratic governor since 1995.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Hinojosa clarified her proposed moratorium targets new data center permits/approvals and would not stop projects already permitted or under construction.
bigcountryhomepage.com/big-country-po…
ginafortexas.com/priority/data-…
datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/texas-…
$TDW $VAL $NE $RIG
How does contract cover today compare vs past cyclical booms?
Util first then date rate. Companies are squarely focused on 2029-2030-2031 contracts on the drillship side and TDW is specifically waiting to contract vessels into 2027 as they see a highly constructive day rate environment unfolding.
If you are going to spend millions to contract a drillship, are you going to want your drill mud and materials delayed over what is a rounding error in contract economics? No.
$TDW
Tidewater is now officially too cheap not based on an up cycle in 2027-2028 but simply based on its cycle average multiples.
Proforma $596M is inclusive of just 4mo of Wilsons vs $670M proforma at full run rate.
8-10x is the cycle average. Market is missing this one but if you don't do the work you miss the opportunity.
BREAKING: The Trump Administration and the US Military are finishing preparations for a possible resumption of "major" combat operations in Iran, per Axios.
Details include:
1. Preparations including sending more assets to the Middle East, US officials say
2. Vice President JD Vance has privately accused Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu of "being wrong on everything" regarding Iran
3. A former Trump Adivsor says, "it's one thing to lose the midterms. But Trump doesn't want to look like a loser twice"
Markets now await Trump's next move.
Lolz
BREAKING: Trump's deal with Putin to import Russian diesel to the US is unraveling, with 3 oil tankers initially destined for the US now abruptly veering off course, per FT.
One tanker switched its destination to Brazil, while another has turned into the Mediterranean and is signaling "for orders," meaning the cargo has no confirmed buyer or destination port.
A third tanker is also signaling "for orders."
These are the same 3 oil tankers that were expected in the US around November 7-11, the first wave of cargoes.
nitter.cf/i/spaces/1onbdZegoRPmB…
Come join me to chat about earnings thus far in the offshore space, a preview of $TDW Tidewater earnings for Monday and some nuances regarding the current cycle we think most investors are missing see you there!!