231elections

Polk county is very interesting at the moment. Early in person turnout of registered voters by race (through day 10): Black voters: 17% White voters: 12.3% Hispanic voters: 9.8% Black voters are turning out at a higher rate than Whites and Hispanics and currently make up a larger share of the IPEV electorate than they did by the end of in person voting in 2024. Democrats are also doing a better job of turning out low propensity voters here than Rs. IPEV turnout by participation in 3 last general elections (2020/22/24): 3 of 3 voters: 🔵22.8% | 🔴17.3% 2 of 3 voters: 🔵13.8% | 🔴7.3% 1 of 3 voters: 🔵12.5% | 🔴7.1% 0 of 3 voters: 🔵9.4% | 🔴6.3%

Zaufanie do prezydenta Karola Nawrockiego:
🟢Zaufanie: 46,0% (-1,1)
🔴Nieufność: 44,2% (+0,3)
🟡Obojętność: 8,4% (+0,3) Zaufanie netto: 🟢+1,8 (-1,4) IBRiS dla „Onetu”
23-24.10 | n=1100 | CATI

Zaufanie do Donalda Trumpa: 🔴Nieufność: 75,4% (+10,4) 🟢Zaufanie: 13,7% (-3,7)
🟡Obojętność: 10,9% (-6,7) Zaufanie netto: 🔴-61,7 (-14,1) IBRiS dla „Onetu”
23-24.10 | n=1100 | CATI

Total turnout is 31.1% Democrats are at 🔵39.7% Republicans are at 🔴30.3% Democrats expand their turnout advantage to 9.4 points, while Republicans maintain a lead in ballots cast

Most of today’s vote is in and Republicans expand their lead in ballots cast to just 🔴R+1.8 In person early vote was better for Republicans than yesterday at 🔴R+10.5, but this is still a big over performance by Democrats compared to previous cycles

5 days out from election day and Democrats still somehow lead the in person early vote in FL-18, which Trump won by 17 points in 2024

Seven counties are already at 90%+ of 2022 TOTAL early vote turnout compared to 83% statewide: •St Lucia: 96% •Osceola: 93% •Alachua: 93% •Polk: 93% •Hendry: 92% •Flagler: 90% •Lake: 90%

Byron Donalds’ wife is trying to claim that Republicans are having a good turnout year because they have a 1.5 point lead in ballots cast The reality is that in early voting (mail+in person) Democrats are doing 5 points better than at this point in 2022 and 10 points better than this point in 2024

Mail ballots are 🔵D+7.8 In person early is 🔴R+8.5 Cumulative early vote is 🔴R+1.5 2022 at this point was R+6.6 2024 at this point was R+11.6

Over 4 million Floridians have now voted in the 2026 midterm elections! Total turnout is currently 29.2% Democrats are at 🔵37.5% Republicans at 🔴28.4% Democratic turnout edge has grown to 9.1 points

Total Florida early vote (mail+in person), still shows a big Dem over performance. Party lead in early voting 6 days before election day: 2026: 🔴R+1.5 2024: 🔴R+11.7 2022: 🔴R+6 2020: 🔵D+2.8

Day 10 of IPEV in Florida was R+9.7, bringing Republicans’ cumulative lead to R+8.3 The in person vote continues to be disappointing for Republicans. Shift in turnout toward Dems by day compared to 2024: Day 1: 🔵D+24 Day 2: 🔵D+23 Day 3: 🔵D+20 Day 4: 🔵D+15 Day 5: 🔵D+14 Day 6: 🔵D+16 Day 7: 🔵D+16 Day 8: 🔵D+13 Day 9: 🔵D+9 Day 10: 🔵D+8 Shift through days 1-10: 🔵D+15.3

Hamilton +4 in latest CNN/SSRS Opinion of Hamilton: 🟢+3 Opinion of Marshall: 🟠-17 Hamilton’s average net favorability is 16 points higher than Marshall’s. Candidate quality is driving Dems competitiveness in key Senate races!

🇺🇸 | Średnia sondaży w wyborach do Kongresu: 🔵Demokraci: 50,9% 🔴Republikanie: 42,5% Przewaga Demokratów: 🔵+8,4

The Republican advantage in IPEV yesterday was just 🔴9.7%, less than the 🔴11.6 point margin they got on Tuesday. If the pattern this year follows that of previous cycles, the next days will only be more democratic leaning. Looks like Republicans will end up relying on big election day turnout

Democratic turnout is at 🔵36.3%. Republicans are at 🔴27.4% Republicans have a 1.4% lead in ballots cast, but Democrats have expanded their turnout advantage to nearly 9 points!

Day 9 of early voting saw a continued Republican turnout advantage but still represents a big shift towards Dems vs 2022 and 2024. Shift in turnout toward Dems by day compared to 2024: Day 1: 🔵D+24 Day 2: 🔵D+23 Day 3: 🔵D+20 Day 4: 🔵D+15 Day 5: 🔵D+14 Day 6: 🔵D+16 Day 7: 🔵D+16 Day 8: 🔵D+13 Day 9: 🔵D+9 Shift through days 1-9: 🔵D+16.3

From the NYT/Siena Florida poll Trump approval: 🔴Disapprove: 53% 🟢Approve: 43% Opinion of Angie Nixon: 🟢Favorable: 34% 🟠Unfavorable: 25% Opinion of Ashley Moody: 🟢Favorable: 42% 🟠Unfavorable: 25% Opinion of David Jolly: 🟢Favorable: 36% 🟠Unfavorable: 30% Opinion of Byron Donalds: 🟢Favorable: 44% 🟠Unfavorable: 34%

Only 44% of South Carolina likely voters believe Graham (R) has the right experience to be an effective senator. 54% believe Andrews (D) has that experience! Candidate quality is driving Democrats’ over performance here

Following a week of better than expected early vote turnout by Democrats, NYT/Siena is out with their final FL poll! Senate: 🔴Ashley Moody: 50% 🔵Angie Nixon: 44% Governor: 🔴Byron Donalds: 48% 🔵David Jolly: 44% FL-GOV looking increasingly competitive with election day in less than a week!