Ben Forstate (@4st8) header
Ben Forstate (@4st8) profile picture

Ben Forstate

@4st8

PA politics n’at

 PGH
benforstate.com
Joined September 2012
  • Tweets16.1K
  • Following1.9K
  • Followers13.6K
1.9KMedia
Photo by Ben Forstate (@4st8)Photo by Ben Forstate (@4st8)Photo by Ben Forstate (@4st8)Photo by Ben Forstate (@4st8)Photo by Ben Forstate (@4st8)Photo by Ben Forstate (@4st8)Photo by Ben Forstate (@4st8)Photo by Ben Forstate (@4st8)Photo by Ben Forstate (@4st8)Photo by Ben Forstate (@4st8)
Ben Forstate retweeted
Alain Xiong-Calmes (@Alain_Mower) profile picture
Alain Xiong-Calmes
@Alain_Mower18h
Five days out and I made my first ever election model for the PA State Legislature. In the Senate, Republicans keeping control is the most likely outcome at 43%, with a 29% chance of Democratic control and a 29% chance of a tie. Would love feedback: alainxc.github.io/Pennsylvan…
Image from Alain Xiong-Calmes (@Alain_Mower)
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Ben Forstate retweeted
Nick Field (@nick_field90) profile picture
Nick Field@nick_field90Oct 29
On top of everything else, if PA Dems win a State Senate majority they can finally change state law to allow for preparing mail-in votes to be counted before Election Day. This policy memorably made it take days to call Pennsylvania in 2020
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Presumably, the NYT had thousands of simulated maps to choose from and somehow published one of the few that could plausibly result in Congressman Tony Moreno.
Image from Ben Forstate (@4st8)
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Honestly, the fact that Fulton County added a Democrat is crazy
Nick Field (@nick_field90) profile pictureNick Field@nick_field90Oct 28
My latest Pennsylvania Voter Registration Update: Since I started doing this in 2015, I've never seen a map this blue. These numbers suggest a Blue Wave is coming in the Keystone State penncapital-star.com/electio…
Image from Nick Field (@nick_field90)
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If there isn’t a wave I’m going to be so mad
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Does anyone have any details about this proposed redevelopment of the north shore? I think it’s from the 1990s.
Image from Ben Forstate (@4st8)
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According to Google’s image search, it’s Kenzo Tange’s 1965 redevelopment plan for Skopje. So that’s not helpful.
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Ben Forstate retweeted
State Navigate (@StateNavigate) profile picture
State Navigate
@StateNavigateOct 15
🚨NEW PENNSYLVANIA POLLS🚨 SD-6 (Trump +6) | 🔵DEM +3 (FLIP) SD-16 (Trump +9) | 🔵DEM +3 (FLIP) SD-36 (Trump +15) | 🔴GOP +2 (FLIP) HD-18 (Trump +3) | 🔵DEM +10 (FLIP) HD-41 (Trump +5) | 🔵DEM +3 (FLIP) HD-131 (Trump +10) | 🔵DEM +5 (FLIP) HD-142 (Trump +3) | 🔵DEM +4 (FLIP) HD-143 (Trump +6) | 🔵DEM +3 (FLIP) HD-145 (Trump +16) | 🔴GOP +3 HD-187 (Trump +9) | 🔵DEM +5 (FLIP) articles.statenavigate.com/p…
Democrats Gain in Pennsylvania Legislative Polling

Democrats Gain in Pennsylvania Legislative Polling

Democrats are gaining in most of our polls across the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

articles.statenavigate.com
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So many things happening here. 1. George Santos is a voter in PA8? 2. PA Dems called him to canvass??? 3. He’s considering supporting Shapiro????
George Santos (@Georgesantos) profile pictureGeorge Santos
@GeorgesantosOct 14
Democrats are legitimately calling the opposition! What are we doing @GOP @PAGOP ??? 🤯
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Thoroughly enjoyed this
Chaz Nuttycombe (@ChazNuttycombe) profile pictureChaz Nuttycombe
@ChazNuttycombeOct 12
🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 I wrote about the top 20 strangest state legislative races in 2026: 10 crazy, 10 interesting. Arrested incumbents, write-ins, party-switchers, slurs, pedophiles, Nazis, and more. Our best article of 2026. Enjoy! projects.statenavigate.com/f…
The 20 strangest state legislative races of 2026

The 20 strangest state legislative races of 2026

Party switches. Arrested incumbents. And of course, write-ins.

projects.statenavigate.com
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As I said when I took the gavel, voter registration would be a top priority!
Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) profile picturePolitical Polls
@PpollingNumbersOct 5
New - Voter registration - Pennsylvania 🔵 Democrats +25,439 🔴 Republicans +7,114
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I didn’t really visit the area in the red circle until I was 30
ava⸆⸉⏳ (@longliveogstan) profile pictureava⸆⸉⏳@longliveogstanOct 2
I forget there’s more to Pennsylvania than the red circle
Image from ava⸆⸉⏳ (@longliveogstan)
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Independents traditionally haven’t performed well in Pennsylvania so this is uh … wow
Chaz Nuttycombe (@ChazNuttycombe) profile pictureChaz Nuttycombe
@ChazNuttycombeOct 3
Replying to @ChazNuttycombe
Up to 331 now in SD-46. Borello has a 2-point lead currently. We'll contact more folks tomorrow at 2 PM Eastern to get a larger sample size.
Image from Chaz Nuttycombe (@ChazNuttycombe)
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Ben Forstate retweeted
Tom Bonier (@tbonier) profile picture
Tom Bonier
@tbonierOct 3
Almost 80% of the votes cast in PA so far come from registered Dems, exceeding the Dem share from this point in 2024 and 2022. Dems could pick up 3-4 congressional seats in the state.
Image from Tom Bonier (@tbonier)
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Ben Forstate retweeted
Allan Smith (@akarl_smith) profile picture
Allan Smith@akarl_smithOct 1
This is what assimilating to Pittsburgh culture looks like
Mike Beauvais (@MikeBeauvais) profile pictureMike Beauvais@MikeBeauvaisOct 1
Mike Tomlin was a Super Bowl-winning coach and yet his heart truly belonged to urban planning in a midsized, sustainable city.
Image from Mike Beauvais (@MikeBeauvais)
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Ben Forstate retweeted
matt mohn (@mattmxhn) profile picture
matt mohn@mattmxhnOct 1
Replying to @4st8
your thesis is basically right, they voted the ~same in 1992 and 2020 after OH caught up but 2012 (when nate map starts) was the year with the widest gap
Image from matt mohn (@mattmxhn)
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I’ve thought about this a lot. My guess is some combination of different demographics and Western PA having gone through the worst of deindustrialization earlier than much of Ohio.
Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) profile pictureNate Silver
@NateSilver538Oct 1
This map was more interesting than I was expecting. Note that deep red streak in Appalachian/southeastern Ohio. But it's not really present in similar counties in Pennsylvania.
Image from Nate Silver (@NateSilver538)
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Ben Forstate retweeted
State Navigate (@StateNavigate) profile picture
State Navigate
@StateNavigateSep 24
🚨NEW PENNSYLVANIA LEGE POLLS🚨 SD-16 (Trump +9) | 🔵DEM +1 (FLIP) SD-24 (Trump +2) | 🔵DEM +2 (FLIP) HD-131 (Trump +10) | 🟡Tie HD-143 (Trump +6) | 🔵DEM +5 (FLIP) HD-147 (Trump +10) | 🔴GOP +1 HD-187 (Trump +9) | 🔵DEM +3 (FLIP) articles.statenavigate.com/p…
State Navigate Polls Show Tight Races in Southeastern Pennsylvania

State Navigate Polls Show Tight Races in Southeastern Pennsylvania

Democrats are doing incredibly well in the Pennsylvania House this year. That’s not where they need to be overperforming, though.

articles.statenavigate.com
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Torn between the urge to remain skeptical and analytical and the urge to completely lib out
InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) profile pictureInteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022Sep 23
TEXAS POLL By NPR/Marist (A) SENATE 🟦 James Talarico: 50% 🟥 Ken Paxton: 44% —— GOVERNOR 🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 49% 🟥 Greg Abbott (i): 46% —— R39/D23/I26 | 9/17-20 | RV maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-con…
Image from InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022)
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Lmaooo
Image from Ben Forstate (@4st8)
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) profile picturePolitics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024Sep 22
Marist poll | 9/17-9/20 RV US Senate Iowa 2026 🟦Josh Turek 50% 🟥Ashley Hinson 42% Link to poll: maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/…
Image from Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024)
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