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Play A Day #4: Sam LaPorta over 43.5 receiving yards at Miami, Sunday 1:00 PM ET. We're 3-0 after Lawrence, Luka and Tennessee (34-6, covered -5.5 by 22.5).
THE SQUEAKY WHEEL. LaPorta is in the final year of his rookie deal and wants to be paid. On Oct. 7 he said extension talks with Detroit are at a stalemate, and on Oct. 21 he said he'd "go get paid somewhere else" without a deal. He has put his body on the line for this team: he had back surgery last November for a herniated disc and missed the last eight games of 2025. He is back with 367 yards in seven games, 8th among tight ends. I expect Detroit to get him the ball.
THE FIT. Drew Petzing is Detroit's new offensive coordinator. His Cardinals offense gave Trey McBride 126 catches for 1,239 yards last year. Detroit now passes more than any team in the NFL, on 55% of its plays, and scores 29.0 points a game.
THE SPOT. Miami has allowed 69.1 receiving yards a game to tight ends, 5th most in the NFL, with 47 catches on 53 targets and 6 touchdowns. To all receivers it allows 8.8 yards a target, the most in the league. Miami is better against the run per carry (3.81, 8th best), so Detroit should keep throwing.
THE NUMBER. LaPorta is over 43.5 in 5 of 7 games: 48, 52, 44, 84, 88, 18, 33. The last two were his quietest, 12% of Detroit's targets against 18% for the season. RotoBot projects 49.9 yards on 6.0 targets, 6.4 over the line.
Not a lock. Data: RotoBot, ESPN.
We believe in the Broncos on Sunday.
Carolina's top four corners are out, plus an edge rusher, a linebacker and a guard. ESPN has the Panthers 30th in run blocking, 25th in stopping the run. Denver: 11th and 10th.
The public doesn't look at the trenches. We do. #Broncos
Tennessee has beaten Kentucky by 6+ in 8 of the last 10 at Neyland.
Play A Day #3: Tennessee -5.5 (-120). Posted plays: 2-0.
Full breakdown below 👇 Follow to track the record.
Play A Day #2: Luka Dončić OVER 34.5 points (-122). It's an NBA Cup game, and as a Laker he's scored 35+ in 5 of 6 of them: 36.3 points in 39.3 minutes. 1-0 after Lawrence under 29.5 attempts.
NBA Cup by the numbers: 211 games, 2023-24 to now.
Favorites of 7.5+ win 91% when they lead at the half and 65% when they trail.
Tonight: SA -15.5, BOS -8.5, DAL -7.5, ATL -7.5.
Deeper Matchups, Week 9: the next healthy players below Best Matchups at QB, RB, WR and TE, sorted by schedule (Weeks 9-14), easiest first.
Fantasy playoff rankings for Weeks 15-17: the same players, re-ranked for their playoff schedules at QB, RB, WR and TE.
Fantasy football rest-of-season rankings at every position, with strength of schedule. Best matchups for Weeks 9-14 at QB, RB, WR and TE.
