Campaign for Accountability (CfA) uses research, litigation and aggressive communications to expose misconduct & malfeasance in public life.
Washington, DC
Joined March 2015
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NEW: Underdogs in "competitive" 2026 primary races won 30% more often than Kalshi markets predicted.
Much of this overconfidence built up in the final week, leading to election-eve odds that were less accurate than the week before. campaignforaccountability.or…
Campaign for Accountability retweeted
.@CNN has partnered with @Kalshi to show election odds on screen.
But look how far off those odds can be.
📊 via @Accountable_Org
Campaign for Accountability retweeted
With midterm elections just days away, a new analysis is raising questions about the accuracy of online election prediction markets, finding that bettors were too confident about the chances of favored candidates in this year’s competitive primaries. nbcnews.com/tech/internet/el…
Campaign for Accountability retweeted
Election prediction markets claim they become more accurate over time as more information is processed.
However, new data from the @Accountable_Org reveals that Kalshi’s election prediction markets actually became less accurate and overconfident in the final week before the 2026 primaries.
Front-runner odds were found to be overconfident by 7.3 percentage points, a very significant margin in politics, while underdogs pulled off 30% more upsets than the market predicted.
Despite their claims that real-time betting improves upon traditional polling, this report shows that election prediction markets are anything but accurate.
The report also examined frontrunners one week before their election to see how their odds shifted in the closing days. Confidence in the frontrunners steadily rose, ending about six points higher than the share that actually won.
CfA's analysis weighs the potential utility of election market data against known social costs, including contributing to rising rates of gambling addiction and public distrust in our election systems. campaignforaccountability.or…
Campaign for Accountability retweeted
BREAKING: A complaint has been filed with the California Bar against White House Press Secretary @KatieZacharia, citing Popular Information’s reporting, for “the Unauthorized Practice of Law and for Holding Herself Out as Entitled to Practice Law.”
NEW: CfA and @weareoversight sued the Trump administration over a scheme that gives paying subscribers early access to official government announcements posted on Truth Social — for a fee of up to $100,000 a month. campaignforaccountability.or…
The complaint argues this scheme violates the 1st Amendment’s protection of the public’s right to receive government information and to access designated public fora, the 5th Amendment’s guarantees of equal protection and due process, and more. campaignforaccountability.or…
Campaign for Accountability retweeted
NEW: With @Accountable_Org, we sued the Trump admin over its plan to give subscribers early access to government announcements posted on Truth Social—if they pay $100,000/ month to a company where Trump has a $1 billion stake.
This is textbook corruption.
americanoversight.org/press-…
Campaign for Accountability retweeted
NEW: The powerful L.A. healthcare nonprofit whose CEO has his wife and their five kids on payroll lamaterial.com/p/altamed-ceo…
This week, CfA filed a complaint asking the IRS to investigate whether @AltaMedHealthS, a California nonprofit public benefit corporation and Section 501(c)(3) public charity, violated rules prohibiting private inurement and excess benefit transactions. campaignforaccountability.or…
If the IRS determines that de la Rocha is using AltaMed for his private inurement, or AltaMed has engaged in excess benefit transactions with de la Rocha or his family, the agency has discretion to impose financial penalties and even revoke AltaMed’s tax-exempt status.
“Evidence suggests AltaMed is spending a fortune to serve the interest of its CEO and his family, rather than focusing its spending on the low-income clients it was created to serve,” said CfA’s Michelle Kuppersmith campaignforaccountability.or…