NEW: Bloomberg Saturday read Andy Burnham’s honeymoon ended this week as the realities of governing came into view — Labour officials are increasingly concerned the budget will be gloomier than expected. They think winter and early 2027 will see rises in energy bills, inflation and interest rates, threatening the PM’s defining mission to bring down the cost-of-living. — It’s led Burnham to shift his messaging, away from “hope” to preparing the public for “challenging” times and “difficult decisions.” The fear among Burnham supporters is how he can avoid a narrative of “meet the new boss, same as the old boss.” An ally of Rachel Reeves jokes that Burnham and John Healey now sound like her. — On Tuesday Burnham meets the man his allies blame for his problems: Donald Trump. Privately, aides are seething that Trump’s chaos is wrecking what might otherwise be an improving UK picture. But they can’t say so publicly. Burnham has to get him to give Patriot air defence missiles to Ukraine and, somehow, end the nightmare in the Middle East. — For the PM’s critics within Labour, this was all so predictable. Starmerites have long argued Burnham was heavy on vibes but light on substance. For them, he focused on being a better communicator but never had a plan to overcome the geopolitical headwinds threatening Britain. Inside government there is frustration that No10 was slow to see what was coming. It surprised some that Burnham chose to define success on quickly improving the cost-of-living, something that’s not in his control. — Some executives who attended a private speech by Healey in Downing Street this week left underwhelmed at the lack of new ideas. One business representative says the speech was indistinguishable from one Reeves could have given. Another says it was a step down from Reeves, who they argued was more confident and able to show she was across the detail. — The current concern in No10/No11 is energy bills. Officials have been buoyed by evidence that previous policies to reduce bills went some way to paying for themselves by mechanically lowering inflation and gilt yields. They are looking at other ways they can do similar at the budget. But the looming 25% rise in the Ofgem price cap means any new scrapping of levies may be swallowed up. — It’s also hard to just blame Trump. Labour MPs on the left say the big danger is Burnham ends up like Starmer: tinkering around the edges and not living up to the generational transformation he promised. Inside the confines of the manifesto on tax, the triple lock and Europe, it’s unclear how different the Burnham project is from what Starmer would have done, as shown by the great @samcoatessky scoop this week. — Labour MPs also think Burnham was lucky his takeover coincided with Nigel Farage’s implosion. The poll boost Burnham has enjoyed might be a mirage, one says. The darkening mood has all-but ended talk in Labour of a snap election. Some aides had argued a spring poll would take advantage of Farage’s weakness. But an election amid tax rises, energy bill increases and interest rate hikes would be extremely ill-advised, a person close to Burnham says. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…