Global political strategist | Pollster at @Cygnal | Past life: @IRIGlobal & @KevinOMcCarthy | Dad to Nell | That’s my American Bulldog Roosevelt ⬆️
Washington, DC
Joined July 2011
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But among white women, 18-44, who identify as liberal? The number shoots up to 61% who agree and half that number (30%) who disagree.
Alexander Tarascio retweeted
I remember making 40k with a wife and two babies and having nothing left at the end of the month after rent and groceries, and I think about it still every day. If you’re struggling to make ends meet and keep your family fed with a roof over their heads, that struggle is simply the most pressing and urgent matter in your life and nothing else really comes close. This is something that many Republican politicians and conservative “thought leaders” still do not understand and maybe never will.
Alexander Tarascio retweeted
The thing about Matt Walsh is he's young enough to remember what being a regular person was like. I'm sure he makes high six-, seven-figure money now, but 10 years ago he was making vlogs in a car. He's able to step back and say "it must suck to be a regular person right now."
We saw this in our September polling of young men for @TheLafayetteCo. Young men registered voters at D+17.
Alexander Tarascio retweeted
Without doubt, the single most important election for me.
Fuck the Wealth Tax and Fuck Zucman.
Saving and Investment in the Golden State is safe.
And no, slopulist tax policy IS NOT popular.
Alexander Tarascio retweeted
LIVE Election Coverage on @AJEnglish with @alextarascio happening now.
"This is a bad day to be a Republican in a lot of places."
youtube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0vo…
Alexander Tarascio retweeted
Keep an eye on:
1) Georgia Governor's race. Rick Jackson has kept this close, despite headwinds up top, thanks to the Brian Kemp brand of common-sense competency.
2) Under-performance in MI US Senate race. Abdul was falling short of the generic, well before the Stevens' endorsement of Mike Rogers.
3) Republicans holding on to state legislatures even in states where Dems pick off a Senate seat. Voters less likely to hire Dems for a job, to run their state.
4) Media narratives that don't account for key voter groups (young men) sitting the election out vs. crossing over to vote for Democrats. A pox on both parties isn't an embrace of the left.
Alexander Tarascio retweeted
I’m never gonna be that pompous, condescending, know-it-all who’s gonna lecture you on who to vote for today. I don’t even like voting for people. I vote for policy. I vote for principles.
Politicians are rental cars: use em to get where you wanna go, then broom em and never think about em again. Don’t get attached to the person. They are flawed, fallen human beings like anyone else, and they will most certainly let you down, eventually.
I’m not a fan of Machiavellian strategizing with elections…I think that kind of scheming is hubristic, and it can often backfire. I prefer to just vote my conscience, and trust that God will guide the right outcome. That doesn’t mean immediate “victory” in any given race…God’s timeline is much deeper and it exceeds our limited vision. Sometimes things need to get worse before they can get better. Sometimes things are better than you even realize.
I respect my supporters far too much to instruct any of you how I think you should vote…I won’t even demand that you DO vote. All I will ask is that you reflect on the fact that you can vote. We forget, so easily, just how blessed we are to be Americans. It’s not luck. We don’t have magical soil. We have a legacy of brave and brilliant and principled men who fought and died to forge our destiny here, setting us apart from every other human civilization.
Every day I think about how I can honor their sacrifices that I’m not worthy of. I felt a call to run for office. I feel an undying duty to advocate for my community…I don’t know if I’m earning my American birthright, but it is always on my mind. I feel the weight of America’s grace just as heavily as I feel the glory of God’s grace. Heidi and I are so, so blessed.
If I can be forgiven just one moralizing lecture point today: have gratitude.
Gratitude is the ultimate virtue that precedes all other virtues, and it is the skeleton key that unlocks joy in even the darkest times in your life. Many people will be devastated and disappointed by the outcomes today…the rest will cheer today, but will be disappointed 6 months from now when your victory celebrations wane and your lauded candidate inevitably lets you down.
Gratitude. Thank God you can vote today without getting beheaded. You can vote however you want today…and while some of my fellow former Mayoral candidates may not realize this…you don’t even have to tell anyone who you voted for. You can just…do you.
I will continue to remind you all…Jesus has the wheel. You will adapt and overcome whatever happens today. Or in the case of Gavin Newsom’s CA, 48 days after the polls close.
Whatever you think of Kalshi, these are clever.
Clean up your community and share your election predictions at the same time.
Look out for these @Kalshi “cig ballot boxes” across Washington, D.C., Austin, TX, and NYC for who folks thinks might win in big races!
What’s going on with California? Democratic politicians in CA should be comfortable to say what they think. Instead, the next governor doesn’t say anything at all.
We asked Xavier Becerra if he identifies as a NIMBY or a YIMBY and I am still dying over his answer. Great interview by @SophiaBollag, who tried to get him to say literally anything substantive.
Very entertaining segment with my colleague @johnrogersal.
MUST WATCH: @cygnal pollster @johnrogersal sets off a heated debate between Rick Santorum and Corbin Trent about El-Sayed's support for biological men in women's locker rooms.
"A lot of Michiganders view him as a radical, and rightfully so."
Via @NEWSMAX
Alexander Tarascio retweeted
People inside the parties hate each other more than they hate the people in the other party
Alexander Tarascio retweeted
Abdul is one of those angry dudes from high school who couldn't stand the fact that other people weren't as impressed with his *intelligence* as he was, that other people weren't angry at the world like he was.
Most of those guys mature by the time they hit 35. But some don't.
El-Sayed went on this bizarre rant against Pete Hegseth -- claiming that Hegseth "rode the pine" in "whatever sport he played" in high school.
He invoked Hegseth's mother (moms are fair game now, huh?), and claimed she was "the type" who would have worn her son's jersey to games.
*Hegseth was an all-state point guard in high school in Minnesota, set various school records. He played college ball and got some floor time in the 2001 NCAA tournament. El-Sayed played club lacrosse at Michigan.*
Here's El-Sayed's animosity-filled diatribe against Hegseth:
"You know he would have rode the pine. He probably got to start 2 games his entire career, playing whatever sport it was."
"His parents came and cheered so hard for him."
"Bro, I feel bad for you. Somebody told you you're a lot better than you really are."
"There's something about being a brown kid whose parents...no matter what you do you're never enough."
"For him, the very fact that he made the team: his mom was making cake, she was wearing his jersey, she had a cap made for him. You know the type."
Alexander Tarascio retweeted
How to spot a shaky poll in about 30 seconds: skip the headline and scroll to the bottom. Check the party split, how respondents say they voted last time, and the age breaks. If the sample doesn’t look like the electorate, the topline won’t either.
@brentbuc to @realDailyWire: “Go to the bottom of the survey first.” dailywire.com/news/in-polls-…
Alexander Tarascio retweeted
MUST-READ op-ed @realDailyWire by @cygnal's @alextarascio on Democrats’ views on Israel’s existence:
Rejecting a country’s existence goes much further than questioning its right to self-defense, yet Dems find it the easier step.
Barely half (53%) support it, and a quarter oppose it outright. Yet 78% of them believe Israel has the right to defend itself. They make up 35% of voters and 55% of those who oppose Israel’s existence.
dailywire.com/news/voters-ba…
Oregon is far away from the cultural center of the country, but Oregonian leftists desperately want to feel relevant so compensate with extra enthusiasm.
Alex Stein arrives at the University of Oregon stop of the Turning Point USA "Pick Up The Mic" tour and is warmly greeted by protesters, right before the first arrest of the day.
One screams: "F*** YOU! WE ALL F***ING HATE YOU! THE HITLER YOUTH ARE NOT ALLOWED HERE!"
@TaylerUSA | @TPUSA
Alexander Tarascio retweeted
A dark day for democracy to attack journalists for reporting. Textbook fascism. Real dark stuff. Troubling. Freedom died a little today.
Alexander Tarascio retweeted
To state the obvious: If the @nytimes *only* wrote stories to help Democrats, they wouldn’t have written this one. My guess is they just guaranteed @DanSullivan_AK re-election. And they devoted a lot of investigative resources to do it.
Fantastic reporting by @nytimes @Kellen_Browning on Alaska Senate race.
Extraordinarily great writing too.
Will impact the race, I believe.
A lot of people seem to have reacted to being exposed by lying.
The reckoning will be ugly for @MaryPeltola
nytimes.com/2026/10/28/us/po…
