Alt Ape

Gold Star Ray vs Glosst Ivy Pika pop reports side by side. >50% of GS rays are PSA 6 and above. 21.4% of corocoro Ivy pikas are PSA 6 and above. Glossy Ivy Pika has one of the craziest pop reports where its genuinely scarcer in high grades. PSA 6 Ivy Pika sub 10k vs ray 40k. The former is the first TCG cards ever of an enduring 30+ year game. We are just beginning.

I'll be posting a series of updates to this little thought experiment, but let us look at where things are now. Corocoro Glosy Ivy Pikachu market cap has gone up to about 16m right now, 2x from the last post. Last sale prices fluctuate, so they may have sold for a bit higher before for some grades. PSA 9 is estimated as we have no sales data beyond the OC piece. I have 2 thoughts. 1. I think there is a lot of value in grades 5-10. You can see that people place maybe a 1k+ premium for each grade jump right now. I think it should be a log higher as we go up in grade and based on pure visuals. Unlike a lot of vintage, grading pop for glossy ivy pika has the mode on the lower grade, between 3 and 4 (vs say 1st ed charizards where you have high populations from 5-9, and even its PSA 10 alone is more than ivy pika's 8+9). The middle grades lag a bit as the market first goes for the highest grades, and lowest grades as more people can enter. 2. All grades are undervalued. If you think PSA 10 will grade and be worth at least 16m (like logan paul's illustrator pika), this puts it at a huge multiple over PSA 9s, of which there are currently only 23. Even if everythign but the 10 went up 4x, we still woudln't be at 100m mcap. This of course is based on current population numbers, and so I think it could be plus or minus that depending ont the grade. 100m is also just a base case imo. There is the question, what if we go into mania, as was seen in stuff like NFTs? So I will be making some revisions to my earlier projections. But that will be for another post(s).

Liqudity is the hidden boss. Thought its good time to revisit this post I wrote on liquidity and selling. Ofc everyone is happy with ports at or near ATHs and its fun to sweep floors but... you always need to test liqudity if you actually want to sell at some point. The basic premise is the same as the full post below except - I noticed pokemon liqudity is going down. OP actually is still pretty shit, ports up but listing stuff at floor doesnt sell quickly. Dragon ball liqudity is crazy good. Yes, yes, I know some of you are true collectors never ever selling. This post isnt for you! For the rest - dont be ill prepared like Meowth!

Corocoro Ivy Pika current graded Market Cap is at ~USD 8mm, 1st Ed Shadowless Charizard at ~USD 160mm... 100m is very possible... Don't forget, Ivy Pika is much rarer, and a true first ed Pikachu, a playable TCG released even before the base set, representing a signifcant mark in Poke history. You can still get a PSA 1 Glossy Ivy Pika for 20-25% the price of a PSA 1 1st Ed Charizard. (PSA 9 Ivy Pika price is estimated, on the low end)

Corocoro Lily/ lilypad mew just sold for >2k in PSA 5. While everyone talks about Ivy Pika there is still a lot of opportunity for Corocoro. Imo the best entry on a lot (asides from mew, pika, pudding) of them was on April, because the price increase from December wasnt too absurd. I know eg @AltApe_sol was smartly sweeping all the betas up after getting some pika and pudding, very recently. People entering before actually didnt get the most capital efficient entries. Always look for other beta plays asides from the leaders. So dont think man I missed the boat, I wish I was here last year. There is always another opportunity somewhere, youre seldom too late, but sometimes you may need to dig harder and go for less obvious plays.