Long time value investor learned from some of the best in the business. No tweet should be considered investment advice.
Joined September 2011
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Andrew retweeted
Last 5 year performance:
S&P 500: +62%
Gold: +110%
NVDA: +2,045%
Bitcoin has returned 0% since 2021
Andrew retweeted
“.. Banks are dumping AI loans, tech bond buyers are saying no more and hedge funds are puking. The wheels are coming off the AI funding rush, implying much higher costs to clear the trillions of dollars in additional debt coming down the pike.”
@business @jessefelder
Andrew retweeted
The past 24 months (actually 7 years) has been the most epic and bizarre bubble.
The next 18 months are likely to be very painful.
Bubbles are confirmed when everyone is “in”, on leverage AND everyone is a believer.
We have all 3.
Andrew retweeted
THIS IS ENRON 2.0
Nvidia is the bank of the entire AI trade, and the bank just closed.
Every part of this boom depends on a never ending flow of capital into AI companies, and Nvidia sat at the center of it by financing the demand for its own chips.
When the source of that capital dries up, the whole system stops getting blood.
I lived through Enron and this has the SAME VIBE to it.
The cracks are already everywhere:
- $200B of GPUs are sitting dark in warehouses, bought but never plugged in
- CoreWeave's net loss is up 544%, and Wall Street still celebrates an adjusted EBITDA that strips out interest, depreciation and $2.5B of stock compensation on a company that rents GPUs
- Firmus, nScale and SB Energy have all flopped or delayed their IPOs since early October, and SoftBank just took a $3.7B loss on gas turbine orders
Then comes the Anthropic IPO, which was built for exit liquidity.
It brings peak margins, a peak valuation and no lockup, and the fast entry rule means anyone holding a Nasdaq index fund will be forced to buy it within days. The academic research has always shown that IPOs are bad deals on average, and this one has every warning sign at once.
The bulls keep saying Nvidia is cheap, but those forward earnings come from the same numbers that are about to get restated. Price is the what and the fundamentals are the why, and the fundamentals are deteriorating faster than the price.
When a sector that makes up 40% of the equity market loses its funding, it takes everything else down with it, because an index fund doesn't protect you when the index is loaded with the problem.
Protect your capital first and keep dry powder for what comes after.
Don't be the exit liquidity.
Andrew retweeted
"You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don't realize it at the time."
Shelby Cullom Davis
Andrew retweeted
BREAKING: For the first time since 9/11, the FAA ordered ALL flights in the USA to be grounded.
nytimes.com/2026/11/13/world…
Andrew retweeted
It's sickening to me that there are allegedly serious people who thought that "the board" should not have forced Jensen to resign, as if the board and not Wachtell was running the place. How naive. You are talking about a situation where the Justice Department, even this Justice Department, could destroy Nvidia if he stays
Andrew retweeted
DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach says the 30 year Treasury could easily head toward 6% as interest costs near $2 trillion
"I would think that rates could easily head toward 6% on the 30-year treasury, which would probably mean somewhere in the high fives on the 10-year treasury"
"The interest expense going to be heading towards $2 trillion very quickly"
"They don't understand that 5% yields are not high"
The 10 year is back above 5.1%, up about 25 bps in 3 days, after a weak $25 billion 30 year auction at 5.441% ($TLT $SPY $QQQ)
To Gundlach, 5% is starting to look like a floor for long rates, not a ceiling
via @YahooFinance, featuring @TruthGundlach
Andrew retweeted
NVIDIA's weight in the S&P 500 has gone from an all-time high of 8.5% in May to 6.1% as of yesterday's close
Andrew retweeted
According to people who’ve spoken with him in recent days, Huang has already taken a penitent turn, castigating himself as a “piece of shit.” He claims not to care what happens to himself at this point. His main concern, he says, is his wife, and not “ruining the lives” of the multiple women now romantically linked to him in the public imagination.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Andrew retweeted
From the highs:
Nvidia down 32%
Google down 26%
Meta down 20%
And yet the S&P 500 is less than 3% from all-time highs
This market is incredible
Andrew retweeted
"Well, Here We Are": BTIG's Krinsky Says The Nvidia Bounce Is A Gift To Sell As The Dollar Breaks Out zerohedge.com/markets/well-h…
Andrew retweeted
All this is bear market behavior.I may be wrong, but everything that's happening for the last 5 months are things that occur in bear markets:
-funds blowing up
-CEO scandals like this
-reverse seller financing
- Positioning: hitting the 99th percentile on both sides
-down 6% days
-up 5% days
Andrew retweeted
The US 2-year Treasury yield has also broken out, rising 14 basis points today to 4.89%. It appears to have broken free of either a bull flag or a falling megaphone pattern, suggesting that a move above 5% would not surprise me at all.
