AnotherBioInvestor

$AEMD North Immunology vs Talawar $JATT, both developing a IL-13/18 bispecific for atopic derm. Comparing some metrics of the two. ChatGPT tells me North pre-clinical data looks a touch better, but these assays vary wildly. For half-life, North is stronger (especially the 42 days subq imo), but I might be missing nuances here. Valuation of North assumes $AEMD brings 0$ net cash and CVR is worthless (implies PIPE at 4.88$). Hard to tell how much you´re actually paying via $AEMD, small receipts on CVR can swing this a lot. Also waiting for prospectus, there is quite a large issue: In the shares outstanding, ~1.17 mln warrants with strike 3.55$ are INCLUDED in, but they are EXCLUDED in the net cash calculation. I think that is unfair to commons, but no idea if it will change. Interestingly, the borrow in the stock is sky high so maybe we actually see/saw some exercises? $AEMD might bring somewhere between -2 and +7 mln in net cash to the merger I think and any positive net cash would be paid to AEMD shareholders via CVR (minus some decent deductions in six-figure-range I suppose). Bottom line is, I have no idea whether $AEMD is trading at a 25% premium to the PIPE or a 25% discount.

What´s funny to me is hoe many people are claiming passive investing is distorting markets. I find the whole factor/theme fetish way more destructive. Picking companies in theme/factor-storms that are being sold/bought without any rationale other than belonging to its theme has been a very large source of alpha for me

I´m at 60-80% it´ll pay 5 mln (gross) next year. RXRX just had a re-prio of their pipeline and REC-102 explicitly survived. I guess first patient dosed in P1 (trigger for 5 mln for CVR) realistically happening mid 2027, maybe a tad earlier? If I use the implied sharecount from the dividend, that´s ~0.83$/CVR gross. Other than that I have zero expectations. Just to avoid confusion, it trades ex CVR already.

$RLYB crawling towards merger closing. Took another look at valuation. At PIPE price with Tier1 investors, company was valued at ~535mln Equity Value with ~297 mln in cash is my guess (PIPE + Avenzo bringing decent cash, >100 mln in June) -> 240 mln EV. At current RLYB price of 15.6$ , NewCo is valued at 365mln market cap for an EV of only ~70 mln. 32% discount to market cap, 70% discount to EV compared to merger valuation. (All numbers ex div) EGFR/Her3 bispecific (AVZO-1418) with updated Ph1 data on Nov 18. Just in October $BMY had pretty strong data for this MoA (see picture - maybe even too strong?). Let´s see, will be interesting as the stock will be quite a low floater after dividend of 13.9$ is out of the stock. Think very decent risk/reward with large discount to PIPE. What´s the worst case here, losing 1 buck? With 1.3$ upside to just the price investors paid in PIPE to invest 215mln $

$AVR Add $EW reaching 5B$ runrate and increasing guidance to the pile of bullish developments over last year

1) $TIL Read this. For real. Almost impossible to lose money imo! Starting with what I think is a total banger. $TIL owns the Tarzana facility, leased to AstraZeneca in a Triple-Net-Lease. Mortgage is set to renew in January. Book value is 112 mln$. Net rent 2027 is ~7.9 mln$ (goes up through the years), slapping a 6-8% cap rate on that gives you 99-131 mln$ property value. There is 85.6 mln$ in debt against the sub owning the property (with recourse to $TIL tbh). $AZN bond till 2037 yields 5.6%, think that supports my cap rate range. They also have 70 mln in cash as of June30. Some very important history: In May, TIL decided to NOT sell the facility. Was quite a shock and the stock subsequently got hammered. Now what is more or less unknown to the market is, that $TIL put the facility back on the market on Oct13! Credit to my good friend @Lord_of_Biotech platform.reverecre.com/proje… My theory: Company was unhappy with bids, stopped the transaction. Then saw the great RMs happening + strong shell premiums, decided to just sell it. Before january debt maturity is a great time in point anyway. Go and stress test the valuation: If they sell this at a 10% cap rate (lol) for 79 mln$, the proceeds + net cash as of end of March 2027(!) will be 7$/share! 15/20 mln in shell value in a RM is another 2.2-2.95$/share against a stock price of 6.2$ Transaction at 8% cap rate = 100 mln$ with same net cash 03/31/2027 + shell value = 12.2$-12.9$ How can you lose here? Probably if just nothing happens for two more years for whatever reason. But why? Liquidity is shitty in general as insiders own a lot, but there are some sellers in there right now (or have been, what do I know). So if they stop the sale again, timeline of this goes out a lot and maybe it drops down to 5, but a NNN-lease to AZN for a brand new prime facility isn´t going anywhere? Substract some transactional costs maybe, but it´s so cheap doesn´t matter down here imo.

3) $LSTA Merging with Marea (acromegaly thingy). There is one interesting and big clue: Marea also tried to merge with FULC (this is very clear from prospectus, ask a LLM) where Marea itself wanted to return ALL Fulc cash. Meaning the investors in Marea want as much as possible for themselves. I´ve found over the years that divying out the cash of the shell is a very positive indicator for performance (makes total sense if you think through that). Since LSTA doesn´t bring any net cash, folks don´t see that strong signal for the stock on paper - but it is there! Compared to the FULC proposal, Marea increased the PIPE from 200 to 225 with a lower valuation (350 mln$ vs 375) but it´s hard to say where they would´ve landed at a final valuation. The 225mln$ PIPE happens at ~1.49$ / share (calculated for LSTA) -> large discount at 1-1.10$

Lots of stocks out there where recent positive events / date have been almost or fully priced out ($INSM guidance / $PCVX bull case date / $PHVS bull case data / $DFTX data / $KYTX data) But $CELC? Wow. Sat this one out through my general bearishness, bought back in now.

@CarswellWilliam @Lord_of_Biotech

Clinical biotech ($BBC) entering bear market territory. In only ~6 weeks 11% u/p vs $XBI and a staggering 33% u/p vs $ARKG Neverending fun for everybody even slightly L/S. Even with low exposure (but hedging with $XBI sadface), this is starting to hurt a bit. Still not straight bullish biotech but more & more workable setups popping up left&right

$SCYX gets 18mln in BARDA money (~1.5$/share) for a program in no model with the option to extend to 214mln and covering some SGA for free. Logically, it trades up 24 cents or 2.8 mln $ at 4.63$? Financing for new asset in March was at 7.36$ and new investors were largely strong to okay. Should trade higher short-term I guess. No idea what their main asset does, catalyst for main asset is in H2 2027.

$XBI $ARKG

lol

$RNA another one where natural history control did not translate. Dozens of high profile examples, yet people get sucked in again and again. Won´t be the last

Not involved here, but great example of life as a biotech "special shit"-investor: 1) Your companys get 29.5 mln +5.5% royalty (roughly 1 mln/year currently). 2) The debtor of that stream buys that for 30 mln (or drowns you in appeals and legal costs) 3) shareholders get 63% of that after every vampire has sucked its millions out of it.

ChatGPT illustrated bedtime stories 1y ago vs today

$MRNA wanted to know what market implies here. Some Assumptions: - MRNA ex Intismeran is worth 27.5$/share (Goldman assumption I stole, whatever) - I value the drug with a sales multiple of 5 as it doesn´t go generic. Kinda? - I assume 5B Peak Sales in melanoma because why not - MRNA owns 50% So 160$ per share implies 18B in peak sales for the drug on top(!) of melanoma without giving effect to PoS. If you think pipeline PoS is 60%, implied peak sales are 30B.

Bought $MRNA at 75... ... to cover my short 🥲🥲