AnotherBioInvestor

$FULC gets 7 mln$ inflow. Fun fact: If you bought it at 3.69, you actually paid only 133mln market cap for Slate or a whopping negative(!) 236mln $ EV. Looks like this (if today´s inflow is 6.3 mln net and 270mln distribution holds, 10Q looks fine) now: - 3.6$/share dividend - 0.4$/share stake in NewCo (if valued at PIPE) One more fun fact: ~3.845 is roughly 0$ Enterprise Value for NewCo. But I don´t think you need to chase this, apparently lots of willing sellers with little price sensitivity

$AEMD North Immunology vs Talawar $JATT, both developing a IL-13/18 bispecific for atopic derm. Comparing some metrics of the two. ChatGPT tells me North pre-clinical data looks a touch better, but these assays vary wildly. For half-life, North is stronger (especially the 42 days subq imo), but I might be missing nuances here. Valuation of North assumes $AEMD brings 0$ net cash and CVR is worthless (implies PIPE at 4.88$). Hard to tell how much you´re actually paying via $AEMD, small receipts on CVR can swing this a lot. Also waiting for prospectus, there is quite a large issue: In the shares outstanding, ~1.17 mln warrants with strike 3.55$ are INCLUDED in, but they are EXCLUDED in the net cash calculation. I think that is unfair to commons, but no idea if it will change. Interestingly, the borrow in the stock is sky high so maybe we actually see/saw some exercises? $AEMD might bring somewhere between -2 and +7 mln in net cash to the merger I think and any positive net cash would be paid to AEMD shareholders via CVR (minus some decent deductions in six-figure-range I suppose). Bottom line is, I have no idea whether $AEMD is trading at a 25% premium to the PIPE or a 25% discount.

Yeah this is weird. I wrote a put on Jensens marriage apparently

Yes, especially the last part. Sometimes it´s just better to dump the fu**er and do something else or come back later, after the momo-gang has had its fun. Hard thing about that is that sometimes when your stuff tanks, something IS wrong and you´re simultanously tasked with profiting off the dislocation and not getting too large.

Agree, blaming "the market" is weird. It is supposed to be inefficient so you can make a lot of money, but it also should go exactly your way immediately after you buy/sell something? If you think sth is inefficient, make money off it. And yeah, neither the path to profit nor the timeline might be of your liking...

What´s funny to me is hoe many people are claiming passive investing is distorting markets. I find the whole factor/theme fetish way more destructive. Picking companies in theme/factor-storms that are being sold/bought without any rationale other than belonging to its theme has been a very large source of alpha for me

I´m at 60-80% it´ll pay 5 mln (gross) next year. RXRX just had a re-prio of their pipeline and REC-102 explicitly survived. I guess first patient dosed in P1 (trigger for 5 mln for CVR) realistically happening mid 2027, maybe a tad earlier? If I use the implied sharecount from the dividend, that´s ~0.83$/CVR gross. Other than that I have zero expectations. Just to avoid confusion, it trades ex CVR already.

$RLYB crawling towards merger closing. Took another look at valuation. At PIPE price with Tier1 investors, company was valued at ~535mln Equity Value with ~297 mln in cash is my guess (PIPE + Avenzo bringing decent cash, >100 mln in June) -> 240 mln EV. At current RLYB price of 15.6$ , NewCo is valued at 365mln market cap for an EV of only ~70 mln. 32% discount to market cap, 70% discount to EV compared to merger valuation. (All numbers ex div) EGFR/Her3 bispecific (AVZO-1418) with updated Ph1 data on Nov 18. Just in October $BMY had pretty strong data for this MoA (see picture - maybe even too strong?). Let´s see, will be interesting as the stock will be quite a low floater after dividend of 13.9$ is out of the stock. Think very decent risk/reward with large discount to PIPE. What´s the worst case here, losing 1 buck? With 1.3$ upside to just the price investors paid in PIPE to invest 215mln $

$XBI always amazing how biotech gets pulled into any high beta drawdown no matter how unrelated. Even down more than $QQQ as I´m typing and that´s with all the pharma stocks in there. Pretty remarkable. Anyway, buying a bit here or there, but lots of stocks didn´t move too much on a two-day-basis tbh. Apart from the stuff I wrote about, like $NRIX here, $KYTX appears cheap to me, $BEAM now flat after great regulatory news. Also gambling a bit in more spec stuff ($LXEO $QURE & more stuff wating to gap down 50% into your face). Reducing my $XBI hedges a bit but feel bad about that. Which might be a good sign?

$AVR Add $EW reaching 5B$ runrate and increasing guidance to the pile of bullish developments over last year

Nah. We´re still probably 5-8 months from full enrollment and then a further 12-14 from readout, still early. What I will say is that my enthusiasm for sure has not waned. I mean we had a huge M&A comp with MiRus, insider buying a nice chunk above 9$ and a pretty insane comp package with 21.5$ / 41 $ / 61.5$ stock VWAP as a necessity to trigger the PSUs. nitter.cf/AnotherBio/status/2057… nitter.cf/AnotherBio/status/2062… nitter.cf/AnotherBio/status/2102…

Was MdG last year. Guess he has a beer and jumps on the plane to Florida to be a few days early, so he can chill a bit in the sun and watch the bids come in 🙃

special div was upped to 3.535$/share estimate as of now

Was at Equity Forum Frankfurt last year. Pretty funny, like about 15 people in the room (space for ~150-200) for one of the most hyped biotechs. Really no idea what they´re doing there

Was up 50%+ already for a couple of weeks? Pretty happy so far. Materially reduced cost basis & little to no headache. But sure, no outperformer till date. Pretty confident the stock will work again, timing will depend largely on enrollment progress is my guess.

The company expects it to be not subject to withhlding tax / regular dividend treatment if the dividend is paid after the merger which is what is happening? If however it were not treated as a return of capital (which triggers no us taxes), only a part of the dividend would be subject to taxation afaik. But yeah, company says it should be treated as a return of capital if paid after closing and they´re paying after closing.

Hahahaha I think there are 2 possibilities: 1) Adar1 and Perceptive gave the blessing for this deal and we will see a decent financing and recovery 2) They did not and we ded I´m mostly waiting for now. In theory you must be braindead to do such a deal against your two largest, very respectable shareholders as such a ShitCo, but it IS biotech lol. FWIW I like that the deal is a late stage asset with somewhat fast path to market. There are some quirks in the data, but then again they bought it for just a couple million $? Looks like an interesting long shot to me and the stock is cheap. But if they did the deal without backing from Adar1+Perceptive, they will probably have a hard time raising at decent terms. So we´re back to 1) or 2)

For sure and that´s why I usually pitch baskets. I will and never have put any of your inevitable misses against you. It´s biotech, part of the game (of probabilities) and one should size accordingly. Anyway, best of luck with North. Hope you succeed, regardless of my position. Man, immediately getting a slap on the head if I get pumpy once. Didn´t want to put you in an awkward position

Don´t row back on me lol nitter.cf/Biohazard3737/status/2…