Founder Merk Investments. USD ~2.5bn in precious metals. Weekend rancher. tweets ≠ advice
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Joined June 2012
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If you are a glass half full guy or gal, there are more advancers than decliners in the S&P today.
src: BBG
Axel Merk retweeted
Summaries of the key takeaways from the interviews @AdamTaggart conducts each week (for premium subscribers) ▶️ adamtaggart.substack.com
Full episode of this interview with @AxelMerk 🔽
nitter.cf/adamtaggart/status/211…
FOMC Live Reaction: Is The Fed Making A Policy Error? | Axel Merk nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1DGleVADk…
Macro discussion with @WeTheBrandon nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1qGvverWw…
we are delayed a few minutes, expect to start at 2pm ET now. it should livestream on my feed here.
A little different today: @MarioNawfal invited me to chat at 1:45pm ET. @WeTheBrandon will host. He focuses on geopolitics—I'm looking forward to a broad, open discussion. And you can bet I'll link it to the dollar, gold, the Fed, even the ECB—Lagarde's resignation fits right in.
A little different today: @MarioNawfal invited me to chat at 1:45pm ET. @WeTheBrandon will host. He focuses on geopolitics—I'm looking forward to a broad, open discussion. And you can bet I'll link it to the dollar, gold, the Fed, even the ECB—Lagarde's resignation fits right in.
Lagarde's resignation is appropriate. She's conflicted. She "cannot stay silent" yet may be faced with the choice to intervene in the French bond markets. It's for the benefit of the institution that she retires - credit to Lagarde for recognizing this.
almost. Lagarde says the ECB it itching to intervene - that's a big deal.
And more importantly, this would not be an intervention in a peripheral country, but a core country - when you need to intervene in French bonds, are German bonds next?
Now Lagarde says she cannot stay silent on the politics. That is, she says she is conflicted. She's right to resign for the benefit of the institution.
Lagarde: I'm resigning because I want to speak my mind.
paraphrased, but suggests she wants to speak up on "principles dear to my heart" -- "I don't think I can remain neutral"
Lagarde: "I'm interested in the truth" -- that's code, as if I needed that to explain -- for a political mindset.
FWIW, of course we are all interested in truth, but science is advanced by questioning established "truth" -- which can lead to "truth" being in the eye of the beholder. That may sound odd to many, and I'm certainly not endorsing oddball views, but those in the "truth" camp might want to look inward to see whether they aren't just as narrow minded as those on the other side of the arguments.
I keep coming back to F.A. Hayek's essay "why I'm not a conservative" that points out that it is the classical liberal that keeps an open mind - published in 1960, it is very timely and applicable, notably also to the "truth" debate.
cato.org/sites/cato.org/file…
Lagarde: should the transmission mechanism be jeopardized, the ECB has tools.
Ahead of that, she said she would read a statement. I don't have it verbatim, but this was telling the market the ECB would intervene if French spreads blow out.
Lagarde: the more we are into the shock, the more informative the inflation indicators are... in six weeks, we will have much more information.
Doesn't say more than Warsh, says it with a smile.
ECB's Lagarde is speaking at the post ECB meeting presser.
Q: 2nd round effects? Is market right on Dec hike?
Lagarde: you're right, we've paid special attention...we are a very attentive..not seeing material risk of 2nd round effects in addition to what is already in projection
My lesson from the Fed presser today: a lot of people don't see what is hiding in plain sight.
nitter.cf/AxelMerk/status/211557…
Warsh did answer the question in great detail, if you are willing to listen. He said:
* price stability is not a date or datapoint, but a strategy driven by an objective, built around a framework
* results are visible in signposts of inflation compensation as priced into the market, inflation expectations (outside the video clip, he emphasized financial conditions).
So the Fed didn't raise rates because removing a dose of accommodation set the right stage, progress is being made, we have a tightening bias - a rate hike may well follow because conditions aren't tight yet, but it will be data dependent.
How much more do you want it spelled out?
Post FOMC analysis with @adamtaggart nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1Oxwbndzp…
Bloomberg's @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 @tomkeene lament no specifics are given which data will decide policy. But there are specifics: inflation is down, inflation expectations are down and financial conditions tighter, but not tight; economy strong.
Read: December rate hike (subject to data dependency). What is not clear about that?
And then he announces to dive into his views on productivity in a speech on November 16. That's super clear and signals we'll get more speeches on this task forces - notably also getting signaling on an update on the balance sheet in Q1.
JPM's Priya Misra adds that she would like a reaction function. No kidding, we all would love that. But it's unrealistic when the FOMC is not on board with one. Add a task force for that! We don't have one, in part because we don't even have an FOMC that embraces a rules based approach. Indeed, Warsh is likely a more rules based person than most on the FOMC.