BigRabbit (@BigRabbit_poly) profile picture
Joined April 2022
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Vance is right that the Iran war hurt the GOP. But he's missing the bigger picture. The GOP was cooked long before it (remember 2025 VA/NJ anyone?). Latinos didn't swing 30 points solely because of Iran. Black turnout in the South didn't surge because of it, either.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
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The 2026 midterms did not disappoint. 🗳️🔥 50+ races traded across the Senate, House, and Governorships. Months of research and preparation paid off big time. My best bets: SC-Sen, MS-Sen, IN-05, MO-02 +$142,626 in profits. 📈
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I turned $1000 into $57,570 by correctly predicting LeBron would join the 76ers. The bet was placed just after he announced he wouldn't stay with the Lakers. All the hints were hiding in plain sights. Trust the process 👑👑👑 @PolymarketTrade
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BigRabbit retweeted
I tuned into Joe Rogan yesterday and heard Bernie Sanders' economics, Barack Obama's foreign policy, and Ro Khanna's conspiracy theories. And then I realized JD Vance was talking. I want a candidate in 2028 who doesn't mirror the Democrats -- and who can win. Mr. VP, this is not the way. youtube.com/watch?v=8QcbPCwT…
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Said this about Ahmadinedjad in early April. What the fuck was I cooking?
Replying to @karenmotherof2
He’s alive in Israel. He became a Mossad agent a few years ago and Israel struck his residence on Feb 28th to free him from regime surveillance.
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If "international law" means a dictator can torture and kill people by the thousands but no one can do anything about it, then fuck international law.
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The equivalent of giving your little brother an unplugged controller so that he thinks he's playing with you.
Replying to @WhiteHouse
Vice President JD Vance and Cabinet Secretaries in the Situation Room, February 28, 2026
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All you lefty morons whose brain cannot process anything other than "Trump bad", take a look at this.
This Post is from an account that no longer exists. Learn more
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Marco Rubio is a future US President. JD Vance is a future Podcaster.
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Very dangerous to fade Nick when it comes to the Federal Reserve, but I still feel like this crowning of Hassett is a bit premature. Trump loves to surprise, and Hassett would genuinely be a terrible pick.
Why Kevin Hassett may have won the Fed chair race before it ended A handful of finalists are scheduled to sit down for interviews beginning this week at the White House. But Trump has repeatedly signaled that this formal process may be beside the point wsj.com/politics/policy/trum…
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Statement on ISW Mapping Methodology: It has come to ISW’s attention that an unauthorized and unapproved edit to the interactive map of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was made on the night of November 15-16 EST. The unauthorized edit was removed before the day’s normal workflow began on November 16 and did not affect ISW mapping on that or any subsequent day. The edit did not form any part of the assessment of authorized map changes on that or any other day. We apologize to our readers and the users of our maps for this incident. The ISW team adjusts our interactive map periodically throughout the day based on information received and ongoing assessments of that information. The map does not represent battlefield changes in real-time, and all adjustments made during our workday are subject to review and change over the course of the day. ISW has begun adding a note on the interactive map when the team begins making edits, flagging that map adjustments are underway and that the map should not be regarded as representing our canonical assessment for that day while the note is present on the map. ISW will replace that note on the interactive map with a note stating that changes are finalized, at which point the interactive map should be regarded as our canonical assessment for that day. understandingwar.org/newsroo…
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No matter your politics, and beyond the NYC mayoral election, Andrew Cuomo truly is a disgusting human being. He represents everything that is wrong with politicians and politics in general. He stands for nothing beyond himself.
Cuomo is truly despicable, disgusting and desperate. This footage was from the @Voices4Seniors memorial, not a campaign event, where ALL candidates were invited to honor the 15,000 elderly that died because of Cuomo’s nursing home order. You have blood on your hands Andrew, you never apologized and now you’re mocking their memorial to say it was a campaign event? New Yorkers are smarter than this. Will you apologize to the families who lost their loved ones because of you? @Voices4Seniors
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Recall that the exact same thing happened with Iran on June 19, when Trump denied reports that strikes were imminient.
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And as we all know, the U.S. struck Iran's nuclear facilities just a few days later.
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Rumours of a retreat are already surfacing. The city holding until Dec 31 is extremely unlikely.
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With Pokrovsk out of the way, Myrnohrad will be next...
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In blue: the intersection for the market to resolve to YES. In purple: the two remaining supply routes leading to Myrnohrad, both under Russian fire. Over the coming weeks, the AFU will have no choice but to gradually retreat.
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However, resolution of such markets depends on a consensus of credible reporting. Credible news organizations such as Al Jazeera have so far only quoted Palestinian sources, while the words "drone strike" are nowhere to be seen in Isareli media.
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