“There’s always 💵 in the 🍌 stand.” -GOB Sr. || “Do you have any idea how lucky you are to have thousands of people who can tell you you’re wrong?” - Kahneman
CT
Joined March 2012
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Oh Come On! retweeted
Utah is claiming that Kalshi is operating an illegal gambling business disguised as a regulated financial exchange. And Utah is right.
But you're not going to hear an objective argument on this subject.
BREAKING: The State of Utah is criminally charging Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour. He could receive up to 75 years in prison. I sat down with him for a deep dive chat 48 hours ago. Here it is.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Kalshi is a paid advertising sponsor of The Daily Wire. Ben Shapiro has referred to it as “one of our sponsors,” and The Daily Wire has disclosed that it “has a financial relationship with Kalshi, which has been an ad partner on some of our shows.”
Sources:
x.com/benshapiro/sta…
dailywire.com/episode/titans…
Oh Come On! retweeted
When welfare for retirees is the largest part of government spending, by far, it is indeed our prerogative to tell them what they need.
If we want to help people it should be because they are poor, not because they are old.
Oh Come On! retweeted
No, retirees should **not** have average incomes! They don't need it!!
Their home should be paid off, they aren't raising children, and they no longer have to save for retirement!
Let alone the impossible mathematics of giving non-workers an average income.
Oh Come On! retweeted
Everyone who keeps sharing these short interest charts is missing the flows behind them. Most shops are not taking outright short bets. This is another effort to ease margin requirements across the street: banks providing balance sheet for more speculative bets are asking clients to post more short exposure.
The sequence on the street looks like this:
HF manager: “I want more margin.”
Bank: “Things look risky in public AI bets, and we’re already lending a lot against private AI bets. For some clients, we’ll extend more financing, but only if they add more short exposure to improve their collateral scores.”
HF manager: “Okay, I’ll short more stock against my main bet.”
That is how you end up with short exposures that look astronomically high while many end users remain heavily long tech. The additional shorts are supporting the financing of their main bets.
Which also tells the bigger story on why raw equity financing rates haven’t blown out the way they did ahead of the big SpaceX IPO in June, despite the fact that lending is slowing.
Oh Come On! retweeted
This fault line is going to determine American politics for the next 20 years.
Why? Boomers vote for young people before those young people existed to cover a $40T deficit for boomers.
If you're a boomer, you see that as "I am owed what I was promised". If you're a young person, you see that as "you guys promised yourselves you'd rip me off and I never agreed to this".
Mark my words, the parties will be forced to re-align around this question and take sides.
Keep your promises vs. no taxation without representation.
You're going to have to pick one, as a politician. And it's going to get really ugly.
Oh Come On! retweeted
“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous.” — George Orwell, 1984
Defense contractors & their powerful lobby will never be satisfied with simply aiding the U.S. in building a strong military that is prepared for war.
The nature of the industry’s existence is not patriotism, but endless conflict. War is their business model—a perpetual state of war ensures a perpetual demand for their products.
Until we address this issue, we will continue to be subjected to forever wars that only serve the defense contractors—and the warmongering interests wealthy enough to rent the defense contractors.
Stop spilling American blood for profit.
Oh Come On! retweeted
This is actually a great analogy because one actually exists the other is a spectacle for shareholders.
Oh Come On! retweeted
This structure sounds familiar….but….Substitute “Nvidia” in place of Lennar…and swap out Milrose for “CoreWeave”….
Lennar caught selling homes to themselves, juicing numbers and inflating comps.
h/t @hntrbrkmedia @m3_melody $LEN
Oh Come On! retweeted
This VAR AI fund is essentially just 9 bros/girls running a YOLO moonshot strategy just like Leo / your average retail junkie. Major holdings include BE NBIS CRWV INTC MU WDC AMD CBRS CRDO lol
VARA AI Fund had 9 employees and about $26.4B under management at the end of June, 16 months after launching its hedge fund.
Rumor going around today that it blew up.
Their 3/31 13F book at today’s prices is $13.1B across 60 names.
$NBIS $1.28B
$BE $1.27B
$LITE $1.03B
$CRWV $889M
$STX $728M
$VRT $720M
$WDC $624M
$CLS $537M
$COHR $492M
$FIX $426M
Oh Come On! retweeted
This is crazy. Tether was literally paying the guy in charge of making their company legal while he was in the White House and the WSJ has the actual signal messages and contracts to prove it because these criminal geniuses tried to stiff one of their partners out of the proceeds
SCOOP: While Bo Hines was leading the White House’s push to pass the Genius Act, Tether—the company with the most at stake in the bill—was steering millions of dollars to a company he co-owned.
Right after the bill passed, Tether hired him as its U.S. chief.
[Gift link] wsj.com/politics/policy/cryp…
Oh Come On! retweeted
my takeaway from the anthropic investor day discourse in SF:
1) the actual numbers matter a lot less for the trade than people want to admit; it’s mostly narrative, positioning, and vibes.
2) the sharps are in a bubble arguing over revenue estimates using alt data while the marginal buyer / seller is trading blind af
3) NYC investors generally take SF AI CEO guides / implied guides as if it were from normal publics (very different calibration required lol)
4) retail degen culture has fully entered institutional investing
SF VC-backed hedge funds, trading neolabs, and a decent number of HF PMs i know treating their seat (correctly) like a call option
the incentive is to maximize volatility and get paid if it works
5) more tourists, more narrative churn, more reason to like long vol
the typical investor truly don’t know how to think about these companies
the short anthropic / long openai call was partly based on whispers of deceleration a week ago
plus flow data suggesting @leopoldasch had already closed more than half their long options around then
(yea people memeing on Leopold seem missed the fact that he sold a lot near the local top)
SA’s timing certainly suggests that had a much better read on the numbers than the timeline (expected)
the long leg was unfortunate with the FT fuckup though
Oh Come On! retweeted
Anthropic is offering a 145k salary for a personal assistant in London.
Responsibilities include:
"Scheduling and managing calendars for leader(s) and their organization"
"Building and maintaining organizational systems for tracking and managing inbound requests"
"Managing the leader's inbox and communications with precise attention to detail"
"Handling travel logistics"
Somebody should really build some sort of tech tool that can handle this stuff autonomously.
Oh Come On! retweeted
Why isn't oil at $200? Because "someone" keeps dumping oil futures all night long, and the CFTC refuses to look into it. Heck, even when it's clear-cut insider trading, the CFTC has been told to "back off," and they did. bloomberg.com/news/features/…
