Tech | Finance | & The LAW. | Stock picker |The money has already been printed , I intend to be at the table when it is shared
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Joined February 2024
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Markets sold off yesterday after two major evenings.
$GOOG & MSFT are both down 12% & 1.5%
Next week when markets open after midterms & democrats take the house ( maybe senate too ) we get a bigger sell off on semis
Democrats up & down ballot are anti data centers
We are paying foreign clubs 600M KES to come play here for 90 mins
Kenya has 19 external-beam radiotherapy machines .Each costs between 400-600M KES
11 of those are in private hospitals .Out of reach for you and me
We could buy one with what we are paying foreign clubs
$GEV. Impressive earnings.
“We now expect our backlog to exceed $200 billion in the fourth quarter, with improved margins, and to exit 2026 with at least 130 GW of gas equipment under contract.”
GE VERNOVA $GEV Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $12.6B (Est. $11.99B) 🟢; +27% YoY
🔹 Organic Revenue Growth: +18% YoY
🔹 EPS: $4.81
🔹 Orders: $29.3B; +96% organically
🔹 Backlog: $197B
Raises FY26 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $46.5B-$47.5B (Est. $46.24B) 🟢; from $45.5B-$46.5B
🔹 Adj. EBITDA Margin: 13.5%-14.5%; from 12%-14%
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $16B-$17B; from $11.5B-$12.5B
Segment Revenue:
🔹 Power: $6.1B; +25% YoY
🔹 Electrification: $3.9B; +51% YoY
🔹 Wind: $2.7B; +4% YoY
Announcements:
🔹 Trench Group Acquisition: $9.0B; close expected late 2027
🔹 Buyback Authorization: $20B; from $10B
Other Q3 Metrics:
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $1.9B; 15.4% margin
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $5.4B
🔹 Gas Backlog & Reservations: 122 GW; at least 130 GW expected by year-end 2026
Capital Return:
🔹 Buybacks: 1.7M shares for $1.6B
🔹 Dividend: $0.50/share
Comments:
🔸 “We now expect our backlog to exceed $200 billion in the fourth quarter, with improved margins, and to exit 2026 with at least 130 GW of gas equipment under contract.”
🔸 “Based on our strong financial performance, we are raising our guidance for 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA margin, and free cash flow.”
A country NOT at war is spending 252Billion Kenya shillings defense.
You ask why ? Because that the easiest to steal. Opaque spending. Tenders/contracts hidden behind “national security” veil
Meanwhile. University lecturers are on strike for weeks now .
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If you had any doubts that the AI trade is still early look at this memory stock.
Quarterly revenue is
2.26X $AMD annual revenue
4.28X $SPCX annual revenue
0.82X $TSLA annual revenue
If it turns out memory is no
Longer cyclical the re rating will be crazy
SK HYNIX $SKHY Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $78.9B (Est. $74.8B) 🟢; +328% YoY
🔹 Oper Profit: $62.8B (Est. $58.5B) 🟢; +632% YoY
🔹 Oper Margin: 80%; +3,300 bps YoY; record high
🔹 QoQ: Revenue +32% / Oper Profit +38%
Q4 Guide:
🔹 DRAM Bit Growth: Mid-20% QoQ
🔹 NAND Bit Growth: Mid-single% QoQ incl. Solidigm
Q3 Pricing & Volume:
🔹 DRAM ASP: High-20% QoQ; bits ~+10% QoQ
🔹 NAND ASP: Mid-20% QoQ; bits slightly lower QoQ
Profitability:
🔹 Gross Margin: 85.7% (Est. 85.2%) 🟢
🔹 EBITDA: $66.1B; 84% margin; +486% YoY
🔹 EPS: $41.07; +205% YoY
Financials:
🔹 Cash: $86.3B; +311% YoY
🔹 Interest-Bearing Debt: $11.9B; -34% YoY
🔹 Net Debt-to-Equity: -32%; -2,800 bps YoY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $41.3B; +281% YoY
🔹 Total Assets: $295.5B
2027 Market Outlook:
🔹 DRAM Demand Bit Growth: +mid-20% YoY
🔹 NAND Demand Bit Growth: +high-teens% YoY
🔹 2027 CapEx: To rise significantly vs 2026
🔸 Memory demand expected to outpace supply through 2030
Product & Technology:
🔹 HBM4: Expected to surpass HBM3E in HBM shipment and revenue share in Q4
🔹 2027 HBM: Negotiations finalized; profitability gap with conventional DRAM expected to narrow meaningfully
🔹 M15X: Ramp-up accelerating to full capacity by end-2026
🔹 321L NAND: Over 50% of domestic capacity in Q4
Business Highlights:
🔹 LTAs: Signed with 14 key customers incl. major global CSPs; standard 5-year term; over 50% of 2027-2028 capacity secured
🔹 Q3 Dividend: ~₩20,000/share (~$15.08), incl. a ₩10,000 special dividend from realized Kioxia gains
🔹 Share Acquisition: ₩20T (~$15.1B) for the quarter, incl. ~₩10T for executive & employee compensation
🔸 Quarterly revenue topped ₩100T for the first time
Note:
🔹 Net Profit: $30.0B; +216% YoY
🔸 Includes a $24.6B non-operating loss: a $17.3B investment-asset loss and an $8.8B FX loss as the won strengthened
FX used for USD conversion: $1 = ₩1,326 (mid-market; Oct 27, 2026)
I will buy $10k of $ANT at IPO or in the months after
Given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time.
I can’t think of a similar bet in the last 10 yrs
Could go to zero. That’s okay.
Could go to $1M over decades.
Your kids will thank you.
Hypothetical poll on Blind assuming $MSFT offers healthcare for an year+ 5 months pay to buy out
More younger people likely to accept -they can re build career elsewhere. For older folks it’s career suicide
Ageism in recruitment is still very much alive
$MSFT is offering to buy out 70,000 employees.
AI is reshaping the world in ways we could never have imagined
In our lifetime we will see the apartheid experiment in Israel end
We will see Palestine attain statehood
Because more and more young people in Western “democracies” who have propped this ethno state for years are now seeing it for what it is .
My career has rotated from being an IC , to a manager to being an IC again
Here is an interesting experiment by Google on whether managers matter
hbr.org/2013/12/how-google-s…
I hope Sufuna’s team is watching and following.
We need to create the largest mobilizing force , both on the ground and online
An army of volunteers to knock doors because our future is at stake
$MSFT is offering to buy out 70,000 employees.
AI is reshaping the world in ways we could never have imagined
Down ⬇️ $108,000 in unrealized gains
Maybe I should have sold and bought a Porsche 🧐
That’s the nature of stocks though . Worried. No. Buying more ? you bet
If you are employed , building wealth seems so unreachable. But if you can manage to put side 20% and invest that , you can build a small portfolio
I work 9-5. I actively manage a small personal portfolio.
Even after multiple trimmings to deploy capital in other priority projects , this portfolio is holding more than my annual net salary in unrealized gains
Afrovestor retweeted
I don’t know if those who are categorical that there can be no miracles in elections are following the happenings in Serbia and Brazil. Im super encouraged for 2027 because we in Kenya pray to the same God. Inshallah we get ours too.
Afrovestor retweeted
Serbian students overthrowing Vučić is an extraordinary achievement.
In 2024, they began protesting. In 2025, they transformed a protest movement into civil dissidence. In 2026, they became a political party — and 2 months later, crushed a corrupt state-entrenched authoritarian.
Read that again. He still believes 2024 finance bill was good
This is what it proposed
16% tax on bread. Remember the diabetes comments?
25% tax-vegetable oil
2.5% motor vehicle tax
Eco levy-diapers ,pads etc
Tell me Kenyan voter , why would you vote for this?
