Actionable, high-quality, and contemporary investment research for private investors We Cover: Multi Asset, Value, Quality, Momentum, and Digital Assets.
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The BOLD strategy provides optimal risk-adjusted exposure to #Bitcoin and #Gold as a hedge against monetary inflation.
Learn more about BOLD on our website: bold.report/
A window into the power of @ByteTrend
The bytetrend.io platform offers an MCP that allows you to interrogate 20 years of trend data on 4,000 stocks, plus ETFs, commodities, and crypto.
This allows you to plug it into an LLM of your choice, and interrogate the data with natural language.
Given the incredible moves today (Nasdaq $QQQ most notably), I asked it to investigate similar episodes from the past and share the strongest conclusions.
What history says:
These days are rare and come in clusters. There have been 50 days of -4% or worse since 2005, about 1 in 110 sessions, and 34 of them fell in 2008, 2020 and 2022. After any -4% day, another followed within a month 64% of the time; on an ordinary day that chance is 10%.
There’s no reliable bounce. The next day was up 29 times out of 50, with a median of +0.3%, much like a normal day (55% up). On the first -4% day of a selloff, the next day was up only 5 times in 11.
The headline 12-month return is flattered by 2008 and 2020. Across all 50 days the median 12-month return is +33.5%, against +19.4% for all days. Drops that started within 10% of the high, as today’s did, give +20.8%. That’s an ordinary year, not a buy-the-crash payoff.
Only two near-high drops failed. Of 14 with a full year of data, 12 were higher a year later. The exceptions were 4 January 2008 (−36%) and 3 February 2022 (−14%), both the start of bear markets. In 2022 Weekly Local was already 3 going in.
Weekly Local separated the good cases from the bad. On all 9 days the Nasdaq fell 4% with Weekly Local at 5 the day before, it was higher 12 months later (median +44%). Those 9 days make up six separate episodes, so it’s a small sample. The low usually wasn’t in yet: four of the six episodes closed lower within three months, by up to 16% (October 2018) and 18% (February 2020). In the recoveries Weekly Local bottomed at 2. In 2022 it fell to 1, and in 2008 to 0.
What’s new this time is weaker leadership against the world. In all nine of those cases Weekly CAPR was also 5. Today it’s 3, and the Nasdaq’s CAPR is 5.4% below its 3 June peak, two days before the June drop. No -4% day in the dataset has had Weekly Local 5 with Weekly CAPR at 3 or less. The nearest cases are Brexit day 2016 (+36% a year later), February 2022 (−14%) and April 2025 (+31%).
High beta works both ways. After 48 of 49 -4% days, the Nasdaq beat MSCI World over the next 12 months; the exception was February 2022. On an ordinary day that happens 84% of the time.
Breadth was already soft. Across the 4,093 ByteTrend stocks, the share of Weekly Local 5s yesterday was 27.5%. That’s in the bottom fifth of readings since 2010, where the median is 39%. Before the harmless shocks of 2016 and February 2018 it was 41–44%. Today’s level is closer to August 2011, February 2022 and April 2025, which had mixed outcomes.
Hedges have worked less well since 2021. On these days $GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) rose half the time overall but only 3 times in 12 since 2021, and it fell 3.7% on 5 June. $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond) rose 71% of the time overall and half the time since 2021. $XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR) rose 6 times in 45, and bitcoin 10 times in 30.
@ByteTree @AtlasPulse @WinderKit
October was a good month for the ByteTree Quality portfolio.
"This chart shows the change in each sector’s trend over the past month, with a higher score being better. We own insurance stocks but no banks, and no tech, materials, or industrial stocks, which fell back in October. Consumer Defensives have been the biggest winners in this rotation, and they are our largest position."
Prediction markets went from US$12bn in monthly volume in December 2025 to over US$72bn by September 2026, a 500% jump in nine months.
📈 October isn’t even finished, and volume has already broken US$100bn for the first time. (Source: @TheBlockCo)
#Kalshi dominates, with 76% of the last 30 days’ volume, and Robinhood ($HOOD) and Coinbase ($COIN) have both piled in.
For crypto, though, the bigger story is #Polymarket. Its odds now appear on Google Finance, and many of its users never realise there’s a blockchain underneath.
That might be the closest crypto has come to a genuine mass-market product.
Gnosis and Augur built on-chain prediction markets years earlier, but they never took off. So what did Polymarket get right?
Our latest update examines the state of prediction markets, the role blockchain plays, and what they reveal about the road to crypto mass adoption.
Link in reply 👇
ByteTree retweeted
A research note on how AI is impacting healthcare for @ByteTree.
"The end of WWII, which led to a baby boom, also gave rise to many of today’s pension and healthcare systems. These were predicated on the technology and demographics of the time.
One of the most influential books on this is The Great Demographic Reversal, by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan. They argued that the impact of this today will be inflationary, as the blessing of long life expectancy is accompanied by the challenge of serving the same quality of life and healthcare to more people, while there are proportionally fewer workers to pay for it.
The driving force of human progress has been the ability to do more with less, like what the Industrial Revolution did for manual labour. While much political debate today is centred around how to fund and deliver a high-quality retirement, AI has opened up the possibility of tackling the problem not through taxation and distribution, but through innovation."
An extended human lifespan is a great achievement of the last two centuries, but it also creates a demographic challenge: more retirees, fewer workers, and an ageing healthcare system.
Can AI tackle that problem through innovation?
📈 With the introduction of AI, the #biotech and #healthcare sector is regaining momentum after losing ground to the broader stock market since the pandemic.
In our latest update, ByteTree analyst @WinderKit looks at AI advances in this sector and why some companies benefit directly, while others don't.
The full article is free to read - link in reply👇
$CRL $MEDP $TWST $TXG $NVS
For signs of rotation, watch Tech vs Real Estate on @ByteTrend...
$XLK vs $XLRE, both relative to $SPY:
An extended human lifespan is a great achievement of the last two centuries, but it also creates a demographic challenge: more retirees, fewer workers, and an ageing healthcare system.
Can AI tackle that problem through innovation?
📈 With the introduction of AI, the #biotech and #healthcare sector is regaining momentum after losing ground to the broader stock market since the pandemic.
In our latest update, ByteTree analyst @WinderKit looks at AI advances in this sector and why some companies benefit directly, while others don't.
The full article is free to read - link in reply👇
$CRL $MEDP $TWST $TXG $NVS
Excellent thread breaking down what changed in markets over the past week, as the powerful rotation continued under the surface of a placid world index $ACWI.
Breadth, sectors, countries, themes, stocks, and more, data from @ByteTrend.
Taken a week off from markets?
Here's what you missed, in a thread 🧵
Summary: the world index barely moved, but leadership rotated a lot underneath.
MSCI World $ACWI fell 0.7%. On Friday, its Weekly Local score dropped from 5 to 4, the first time it has been off 5 since mid-April.
Money moved out of megacap tech, semis, precious metals and materials. It moved into healthcare, staples, energy and rate-sensitive stocks.
Leadership across the market kept thinning, as it has since the summer.
There are four types of market events.
First, we have those that are insignificant and widely expected. These are common and have little impact on markets. Next are significant but expected events, like Federal Reserve rate decisions, which are generally well understood and forecastable. Third are small surprises, which are insignificant events that the market didn’t see coming, like a drought or a profit warning.
Finally, there are significant, unexpected events. This is what occurred in Brazil overnight when Lula beat Bolsonaro in the second round of Brazil’s presidential elections.
After five years in a bear market, US bonds suddenly surged against world equities in October.
Low-volatility stocks have also overtaken high-vol names as the strongest trend group. It’s a classic flight to quality.
📉 Stocks with a bearish 0-star daily ByteTrend score: 48% → 29%
📈 Stocks with a bullish 5-star score: 9% → 17%
Semis ($SOXX 👇) held an almost unbroken 5-star relative trend from June 2025. They have now slipped to a neutral 3 and are making new relative lows.
Is this a blip or a real shift?
This week’s Global Trends update by @WinderKit is free to read on our website - link in reply👇
$TLT #Bonds #Semiconductors #Momentum
Gold’s short-term trend is under pressure, and a break below $4,000 seems increasingly likely. In the latest @AtlasPulse Gold Report, Charlie Morris explores the reasons behind gold's lacklustre performance.
📈A serious sovereign bond crisis is underway, and France is at the centre of it. French bond yields are rising faster than Germany's because credit risk is rising. France last balanced its budget in 1974, and unlike the similarly indebted UK, it borrows in a currency it can’t print.
European bond spreads last blew out during the 2010/12 Eurozone Crisis, and gold peaked shortly before French spreads did. Could history repeat?
But France is only part of the story. Charlie also looks at oil, real yields, record ETF holdings, and Bitcoin’s recent run against gold, and what they mean for gold’s medium- and long-term outlook.
The full report is free to read - link in reply👇
$XAU #Gold #debtcrisis #eurozonecrisis
Crypto breadth has turned fast. Two weeks ago, nearly 60% of the top 100 tokens were in uptrends. Today it’s under 10%.
However, zoom out to five years of weekly data, and the crypto bear market looks done. These look like pullbacks in a young bull market.
📈Crypto Breadth – Weekly, Past Five Years. Source: @ByteTrend
Right now, the biggest risk to financial markets is an oil shock, as it impacts everything. #CrudeOil is heading back towards all-time highs, and US WTI is closing the gap with Brent. The world’s oil problem is becoming a US problem too.
Meanwhile, another concern is market concentration.
📈 The world’s 100 largest companies now account for 43% of the global market cap. That level of concentration is rare and usually appears only at major market peaks.
Eventually, that concentration will reverse. We saw major rotations in 1975, 2003, and 2009, and the latest market rotation may already be underway. This is when the real opportunities kick in.
This and more in our latest update of The Multi-Asset Investor by @AtlasPulse - link in reply 👇
#OilPlay #OilShock #BRENTCRUDE
Since 2015, oil refiners have outperformed oil producers, but that is set to change.
📈 Oil refiners’ margins (the crack spread) are at record highs, but the stocks are no longer the bargain they were in 2014.
Meanwhile, the forward oil price is picking up, and the market is signalling that disruption is here to stay.
Today’s Venture targets an oil producer with improving price performance, high returns, and low valuation. With forward oil prices poised to rise, this company is well positioned to benefit - link in reply 👇
