Catherine Cashmore

For this week's report I decided to write a few thoughts regarding an unexpected phone call I had from a new, very enthusiastic subscriber who had only recently discovered the 18-year cycle after watching an interview I conducted with Atelier Wealth. You can listen to the interview here: open.spotify.com/episode/5BY… While he understood the economic drivers, his question was... **WHY DO YOU THINK IT'S 18 YEARS?** I've written about this before, but the conversation got me thinking, and today I want to push the research a little further and really emphasise just how important this recurring period of time has been throughout history. If you've been following this publication for any length of time, you'll already know that researchers have identified countless economic cycles throughout history. The decade cycle, the 30-year cycle, the 54-to-60-year Kondratieff wave, the 72-year cycle, the 82-to-84-year war cycle, Gann's 90-year major time cycle, the Kuznets cycle, and numerous others, many of which happen to be harmonics of the land cycle's recessionary periods. But as I've argued in previous reports, a thorough understanding of the 18-year cycle and the economic forces driving it is enough to keep you well ahead of the prevailing economic forecasts and narratives that litter the internet, without needing to know anything about any other cycle at all! And I don't say that lightly. Few economic cycles have attracted such an extensive body of historical research as the 18-year cycle, much of which remains surprisingly unfamiliar to modern investors. Despite the centuries of historical research about it, the cycle remains almost entirely absent from mainstream economic analysis. It's almost as if it was deliberately designed that way. In fact, that was one of the questions the subscriber raised when he called. If the cycle is so well documented, how come the big players don't seem to know about it? It's a stigma I've been trying to break down for years through the many conversations and interviews I've had with economists, commentators and anyone else with a bit of influence who's willing to listen and engage with the research! **IN THIS WEEK'S MAIN REPORT YOU'LL DISCOVER...** • The 18-year cycle was understood thousands of years ago. So why do modern economists still struggle to explain its remarkably consistent timing? • What did the ancient Babylonians know? Extraordinary research into astronomical tablets reveals how they used the heavens to forecast events on Earth, including movements in commodity prices. • A recessionary timetable hiding in plain sight. From Samuel Benner to W.D. Gann, we examine the historical research and the recurring windows of economic crisis. • Wars, financial panics and economic collapses. Why have so many major historical upheavals coincided with these recurring periods? • From ancient Babylon to Australia's housing market in 2026. The latest figures from Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth reveal just how quickly the property boom is unravelling, and what the cycle suggests lies ahead. **THEN IN THIS WEEK'S INTERVIEW WITH DR CAMERON MURRAY...** Cameron @DrCameronMurray is one of Australia's most interesting independent economic thinkers, particularly when it comes to housing, land economics and the policies that drive property speculation. He's not afraid to challenge conventional economic thinking, and whether or not we agree on every point, I always find his research and analysis worth reading. In this interview, we discuss the deteriorating Australian housing market, the extraordinary boom in Brisbane and Perth, the outlook for construction, and the economic forces behind the 18-year land cycle. We also debate what the next few years might bring, including whether Australia's housing downturn will end in a sharp collapse or a more prolonged correction. I strongly encourage you to subscribe to Cameron's excellent Substack, Fresh Economic Thinking! fresheconomicthinking.com/ It's a terrific discussion, and a fitting way to finish this week's report. We discuss: • Australia's housing downturn: The latest deterioration in prices, sales and buyer demand. • Brisbane's property market: The extraordinary post-COVID boom, swelling listings and the risk of a substantial correction. • Perth and Adelaide: Whether the markets that experienced the strongest recent growth are now particularly vulnerable. • The 18-year land cycle: The economic forces behind recurring property booms and busts, and how reliably we can forecast their timing. • The construction sector: Why development activity can continue even after buyer demand has weakened, and the risks created by long construction lead times. • Sydney versus Melbourne: Their different property cycles and what that could mean for the next recovery. • New Zealand and Canada: What their prolonged housing corrections might tell us about Australia's outlook. • 2027–2028: Whether Australia faces a sharp property crash or a slower, more drawn-out downturn. **CLICK BELOW TO READ THE REPORT AND LISTEN TO THE INTERVIEW NOW!** landcycleinvestor.com/post/t… **THE BEST BOOK ON AUSSIE HOUSING I'VE READ IN YEARS - CALLUM NEWMAN** Callum @CalNewmanMT has been to the library again. It's his favourite place to hang out! And this week, he's been inspired by a book that tackles a question few politicians seem capable of answering. Why is Australia's housing crisis getting worse, despite all the promises to fix it? So impressed was he by the research that he's devoted this week's report to reviewing a publication that challenges almost everything we're told about Australia's housing problems. From the growing divide between rich and poor to the dangerous consequences of turning housing into a speculative investment, it's a fascinating look at where Australia is heading if we continue down the same path. And importantly, the book doesn't just identify the problems. It offers some rather interesting solutions! Callum reckons it's the best book on Australian housing he's read in years. Find out why! **CLICK HERE TO READ CALLUM'S REPORT NOW!** landcycleinvestor.com/post/t… P.S. Consider subscribing to Callum's Substack, Stockfindr! stockfindr.substack.com/ Here's what one subscriber recently said about it! (Unasked!) "Your posts really are valuable to me. I read a lot of stuff but you just cut through the noise and call it as you see it. I credit you for gains I've made on WTC, RMS, Gold and some mining stocks you flagged through a Fin Review link you included. Thank you. I should be paying you more! Quite apart from the financials, I also enjoy your musings on life in general." **FINALLY!** **GLOBAL FORECASTER DAVID MURRIN IS JOINING US FOR A LIVE Q&A EVENT OCTOBER 22ND, 8PM MELBOURNE TIME (AEDT)** **SEND IN YOUR QUESTIONS NOW!** [email protected] I've managed to get Global Forecaster David Murrin to join us for a LIVE ZOOM EVENT this coming THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22ND, at 8pm Melbourne time (AEDT). David is one of the world's most recognised long-range forecasters. Over several decades he has built a reputation for identifying major turning points in markets, commodities, debt cycles and geopolitical power shifts well before they enter mainstream discussion. David's work on the Kondratieff Wave, war cycles, sovereign debt and the rise and fall of empires has attracted a massive global following of investors, business leaders and independent researchers seeking to understand the bigger forces driving events. This is a very rare opportunity to hear David LIVE, to interact and ask your questions. In recent years David has been warning of a period of increasing geopolitical tension, rising commodity prices, inflationary pressures and a struggle for global dominance unlike anything seen since the last great hegemonic transition. With markets once again pushing into record highs, AI speculation running wild and conflict escalating across multiple regions, there has rarely been a more important time to revisit his forecasts. We can also venture into some of David's more controversial areas of research, including his work on unidentified aerial phenomena, ancient civilisations and the possibility that humanity's history may be far more complex than we currently understand! **We'll be taking questions live. However, those who submit questions in advance will get priority so I can prepare some slides.** **I'll send out another reminder tomorrow.** landcycleinvestor.com/post/t…

I have two reports for you this week! FIRSTLY! 18 YEARS AFTER LEHMAN BROTHERS COLLAPSED — COULD THE LAND CYCLE’S RECESSION WARNING BE ANY MORE PRECISE? (INCLUDES INTERVIEW WITH ECONOMIST STEVE KEEN..) Australia will not escape a technical recession at the end of this land cycle – as it did in 2008. That remains my forecast. The RBA has just jacked up the cash rate to 4.60% — its highest level since the Global Financial Crisis. Michelle Bullock is oblivious to the fact that it’s going to advance Australia into a recession. Yet here we go again, the illusion that making debt dearer will cure the shortages driving prices higher. Speaking at the RBA press conference this week, Bullock — who clearly had no idea what she was talking about or the carnage her decisions will cause — implied we’d be thanking her over the next couple of years… “There’s nothing I can say necessarily to make households feel better in this. I understand that. This is tough. And can I say that the Board did not take this decision lightly without thinking that we knew that this was going to hit some people pretty hard. We know this, but we have to do it if we are to bring inflation back down. “We need to do it if we are to bring inflation back down. “That’s our mandate, and ultimately, in the long run, hopefully in the next couple of years when we get inflation back down, this will all have been worth it.” Worth it?! Unsurprisingly, there’s been a plethora of outrage about the 0.25% rise online and in news reports. Everyone is busy calculating what it will put onto the average mortgage each month… questioning whether there are more rises ahead…. No one is talking about the cycle, however – or the recession that’s about to hit. For readers following the land cycle, another rate rise or two into the peak of the cycle should come as no surprise whatsoever. Throughout the second half of this cycle — since 2020 — I’ve repeatedly reiterated that we couldn’t have a sustained rate-cutting cycle into the peak – that the dial would have to turn to break the market. 2026 has been evidence of that. In this week’s report, I show you WHY the timing for a recession is now inevitable. I'll also demonstrate exactly why Australia won’t escape a technical recession this time and how government policy will influence the depth and duration of the downturn... Then in my interview with Steve Keen... STEVE KEEN: WHY RECESSION IS COMING — AND HOW GOVERNMENTS COULD MAKE IT WORSE Steve Keen has spent decades challenging mainstream economics and exposing the role banks and private debt play in driving booms — and busts. And he is also calling a recession. When I put the Land Cycle forecast to him — a panic next year, taking us into a technical recession by 2028 — he agreed it’s “a reasonable timeframe, yeah.” I wanted to hear what he sees coming, where he thinks central banks are going wrong, and what governments can do when the market breaks. Remember, Keen accurately picked the peak of the housing market prior to the recession of 2008. He also forecast in 2019 that the US would enter a recession in 2020. His research on complex systems modelling of debt-deflation was awarded the eminent Revere Award from the Real World Economics Review, describing Keen as the economist: “…who first and most clearly anticipated and gave public warning of the Global Financial Collapse and whose work is most likely to prevent another GFC in the future”. He wasn’t the first economist to give warning, as readers will be aware – but he was one of the most prominent to do so. Keen didn’t make his forecasts using the 18-year cycle (although he is familiar with the concept). His analysis comes from a purely monetary standpoint. I don’t agree with all of Steve’s views on world politics, but when it comes to money and its relationship with housing, he’s an important voice for us to pay attention to. The interview gives us a sense of what lies ahead — and how much will depend on the government’s response. Steve explains why he’s forecasting a very harsh few years, with the threat of fuel rationing as war disrupts essential supplies. He cuts through the BS in the mainstream economic narrative about government spending, inflation and tax, explaining how the policies sold to us as solutions keep feeding the same problems. His analysis helps explain why the cycle keeps repeating — and why our forecasts remain on track. We discuss: • Why rising interest rates are making things worse when inflation is coming from shortages of fuel and other essential supplies. • How rising costs can push households and businesses to the point where they can no longer service their debts. • Why government debt is different from your mortgage — and why Steve rejects the idea that the federal government has run out of money to respond to another crisis. • How cutting government spending to “get the budget back in order” can deepen a downturn, drawing on what happened during the Great Depression. • The concerns I raised from Michael Howell’s analysis about rising bond yields — and Steve’s response when I ask what happens if investors stop buying government bonds. • Whether cash in the bank is safe during a financial crisis, and why Steve argues that all deposits should be protected. • Whether the RBA could slash rates in a recession, even with inflation still high. • Why he expects the AI investment bubble to burst within the next one to two years. • Australia’s dependence on imported diesel, and what shortages could mean for getting food and other goods into our cities. • How first-home buyer incentives keep feeding the housing market — and his proposal to limit mortgage borrowing against a property’s rental income. landcycleinvestor.com/post/1… BUT WAIT — THERE'S MORE! OCTOBER MARKET UPDATE: MASTER FORECASTER ANDREW PANCHOLI ON THE WARNING SIGNS AND RALLY AHEAD — EXCLUSIVELY FOR LCI SUBSCRIBERS landcycleinvestor.com/post/o… October has a reputation for market turmoil. But it can also mark a low before the next rally. So which way should we be looking this month? In this month’s LCI exclusive market update, Andrew Pancholi joins me to discuss the warning signs he’s watching — 18 years after Lehman Brothers collapsed. Andrew is the author of The Market Timing Report and specialises in using historical cycles to identify potential turning points in financial markets. We look at... • Instability in US bonds, the longer-cycle parallels with 1936–37, and why the distinction between an 18-year and an 18.6-year cycle matters as we look towards 2027. • Copper is a particular focus. With commercial sellers and speculative buyers taking opposing positions, Andrew explains what the trading data is telling him — and why it matters for property, construction and the wider economy. • We also discuss the war cycles and how an escalation in the Middle East could complicate the outlook. Yet Andrew sees scope for a more bullish period beyond October, even as the longer-term warnings remain. Understanding the timing matters, particularly if you’re deciding whether to take profits, hold back or commit more money. This was a good conversation that flowed well. We recorded late on Thursday night, with Andrew still jet-lagged after returning from the US, but there was plenty to discuss — and some important dates to watch! landcycleinvestor.com/post/1…