Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor

New newsletter coming soon! Sign up here landcycleinvestor.com @PeteWargent

If you missed it, listen to the podcast on the cycle here shorturl.at/h8gHkAnd the follow up debate with economist @EvanLucas_AU here shorturl.at/oQdtd

THE LAND CYCLE'S COLLAPSE: THE ROAD AHEAD – AND COULD THERE BE TWO STOCK MARKET PEAKS? The inflation figures came in this week, and despite interest rates now at their highest level in 15 years, with borrowing costs back to pre-GFC levels, inflation is still going up. Annual inflation rose to 4.3% in September, up from 4% in August. Underlying inflation (which strips out the big price rises and falls to give a clearer picture of general inflation) also increased to 3.6%. It’s well above the RBA's 2–3% target. Consumer prices rose 1.3% over the September quarter, with housing costs up 5.2% annually and transport costs rising 8.7%. And remember, when the ABS talks about housing costs in the inflation data, it isn't measuring the price of established property. Property prices are conveniently excluded from the CPI. Instead, it's measuring expenses – rents, electricity, the cost of construction etc. As far as the land cycle is concerned, none of this is particularly surprising. I've been writing for years that interest rates would rise into the final stages of the 18-year land cycle – it’s a pattern that’s been repeated throughout modern economic history. And for just as long, the cycle has pointed firmly to 2026 as the peak in median property prices. We saw it in the early 1970s, when interest rates climbed as Australia's property bubble reached its peak. The maximum bank overdraft rate rose from 7.75% to 9.5% in September 1973, before reaching 11.5% in July 1974, as the property market crashed. We saw it again in the late 1980s, when Australia's massive commercial property bubble burst. The cash rate reached around 18% in 1989, while standard variable mortgage rates hit 17%. What followed was the devastating recession of 1990–91. And we saw it again in the 2000s, when the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 1% in June 2004 to 5.25% in June 2006, as the American housing bubble reached its peak. Australia followed the same pattern. The RBA continued raising rates, reaching 7.25% in March 2008, with standard variable mortgage rates climbing to 9.6% by July. By then, the US housing market was already collapsing, and the credit crisis was spreading through the global financial system. Within months, Lehman Brothers had failed, financial markets were in panic, and central banks were slashing the very interest rates they had spent years raising. That was 18 years ago – and we’re about to go through it again! The next major event I'm anticipating is a stock market panic, beginning in the United States, that spills into the wider financial system and ushers in a major recession. This is where I believe we are in the land cycle. The question now is not whether the cycle has reached its peak, but how severe the financial crisis that follows will be – and when. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ THIS WEEK'S LAND CYCLE INVESTOR REPORT I'm taking a closer look at the economic road ahead – and, importantly, revisiting the historical cycles to see whether we can narrow down the timing of the next major financial crisis!!! There's a lot to cover, including: • THE RBA'S DANGEROUS COMPLACENCY Why I believe the Reserve Bank is drastically underestimating the damage a collapsing property market could inflict on the Australian economy – and what history tells us about the consequences. • EXPOSING THE RBA'S DODGY ECONOMIC NARRATIVE Does raising interest rates really bring inflation down? Even the RBA's own economists have published research that challenges the conventional explanation. I examine what they found and why it raises some uncomfortable questions. • THE RECESSION THAT'S STILL TO COME Why the economic weakness we're experiencing today is nothing compared with the downturn I'm anticipating at the end of this land cycle. I revisit Australia's devastating 1990–91 recession and explain why our economy may be even more vulnerable today. • NARROWING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT CRISIS I've been digging further into the historical record, examining the 90-year and 100-year cycles and what they tell us about the period ahead. The 90-year cycle points towards a particularly dangerous window between March and October 2027. • COULD THERE BE TWO MARKET PEAKS? This is where the research gets particularly interesting. I've gone back through 300 years of stock market history, examining the crashes and recoveries of the 1720s, 1820s and 1920s. Could we see two market peaks to this land cycle?? ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ PLUS – ANDREW PANCHOLI: THE NEXT BIG MARKET MOVE IS COMING! I caught up with Andrew Pancholi this week for our latest monthly interview, and he was on fire! We covered an enormous amount of ground, from the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the potential consequences for global energy supplies, aviation and trade, to the extraordinary convergence of historical cycles as we approach the end of the decade. We also discussed the 18.6-year cycle, its relationship with previous disruptions to the airline industry, and how these longer cycles are converging with the economic and property cycles I've been examining in this report. But perhaps the most interesting part of our conversation concerned the immediate outlook for the stock market. Despite the considerable risks building in the background, Andrew's research suggests we could see a strong rally into the end of the year... Read more and listen to the analysis via the link below. landcycleinvestor.com/post/t…

IN THIS WEEK'S LCI REPORT! MISSED GLOBAL FORECASTER DAVID MURRIN LIVE!? THIS IS ONE YOU NEED TO WATCH! VERY TOUGH QUESTIONS AND BOLD FORECASTS.. ! PLUS! CALLUM NEWMAN: BEWARE: MARKET RISK IS GROWING! THE NEXT RALLY COULD BE A TRAP! Thank you so very much to everyone who took the time to join Thursday night’s live event with David Murrin, and to those who sent questions beforehand. I’m truly grateful to everyone who takes the time to engage with the content and join these discussions. We covered an enormous amount of ground, and your questions, some of which were very challenging, made it a particularly worthwhile evening! For those who couldn’t attend, I strongly encourage you to watch the recording. I’ve interviewed some exceptionally knowledgeable people over the years, but few, if any, have impressed me quite as much as David. You don’t have to agree with David. But if you’re going to challenge him, you’d better know your subject. He’s not someone who arrives at his conclusions lightly. There’s an enormous amount of research, knowledge and independent thinking behind his views, and he’s more than capable of defending them. His timing may not always be right, but that doesn’t mean the underlying analysis should be dismissed. Far from it. And on Thursday night, subscribers certainly put that reasoning to the test! In the report, I’ve summarised David’s main forecasts and assessments, some of which are very confronting. But the value of watching is hearing how he arrives at them and responds when challenged. NOTE: Not all of David’s forecasts align with those I’ve published in Land Cycle Investor. Your subscription aims to give you access to a broad range of analysis, rather than only views that agree with my own. David has a track record worth considering. WE DISCUSSED: • The outlook for stock markets and Bitcoin. Has the peak passed, and what comes next? • Gold, silver, rare earths and the broader commodity cycle. • Oil and diesel prices. How high could they go? • The empire cycle and the struggle for global power. • China, Taiwan and what a Pacific conflict could mean for Australia. • Bank deposits, government guarantees and where wealth might be preserved. • Property, farmland and the pressures facing farmers. • Russia, NATO, Iran and India’s role in the global power struggle. • What escalating conflict could mean for travel, tourism and everyday life. • What would make David change his forecasts, and how he assesses evidence. • Ancient civilisations, Graham Hancock’s work and geomagnetic change. The full recording, forecast summary, slides and transcript are available to subscribers. I’m also hoping to have Andrew Pancholi back for another LIVE ZOOM EVENT in the not too distant future! READ THE REPORT AND WATCH THE RECORDING HERE: landcycleinvestor.com/post/m… CALLUM NEWMAN: BEWARE, MARKET RISK IS GROWING! THE NEXT RALLY COULD BE A TRAP! Could the next share market rally be your opportunity to get out before things get considerably worse? In his latest report, Callum Newman examines some increasingly worrying signals emerging from the Australian economy and financial markets. While hundreds of billions continue to pour into the AI boom, the cracks in Australia’s housing market are becoming harder to ignore. Stockland reports new housing enquiries at a seven-year low. Mirvac’s new home sales have fallen by almost a third. Even Nick Scali, one of the ASX’s most respected retailers, is feeling the pressure. And the market’s reaction to these announcements is telling. But here’s the bigger question: Are these companies now cheap enough to buy, or is the worst still ahead? Callum explains why the 18-year land cycle suggests investors should be particularly cautious about bargain hunting at this stage. IN THIS REPORT, CALLUM EXAMINES: • The extraordinary AI investment boom and the risks emerging beneath it. • The latest evidence of Australia’s deteriorating housing market. • What Stockland, Mirvac and Nick Scali are telling us about the wider economy. • Why apparently cheap shares could become considerably cheaper. • Why the 18-year land cycle points to a much more dangerous period ahead. • How investors might approach a potential year-end rally. If you’re holding shares, considering buying into the downturn, or wondering whether the next rally is one to trust, this is a report worth reading. READ CALLUM’S REPORT HERE: landcycleinvestor.com/post/b… P.S. Consider subscribing to Callum’s Substack, Stockfindr: stockfindr.substack.com/ Here’s what one subscriber recently said about it, unprompted: “Your posts really are valuable to me. I read a lot of stuff but you just cut through the noise and call it as you see it. I credit you for gains I’ve made on WTC, RMS, Gold and some mining stocks you flagged through a Fin Review link you included. Thank you. I should be paying you more! Quite apart from the financials, I also enjoy your musings on life in general.” COMING UP! TIMING THE CYCLE? A few weeks ago, I wrote an article drilling down into the timing of the stock market crash for this cycle. If you missed it, you can read that report here: WHEN WILL THE STOCK MARKET CRASH? NARROWING THE WINDOW landcycleinvestor.com/post/w… In the coming weeks, I’ll be looking at this subject in more detail, particularly asking whether this cycle is going to throw us a curveball. Stay tuned for the updates! landcycleinvestor.com/post/m…

For this week's report I decided to write a few thoughts regarding an unexpected phone call I had from a new, very enthusiastic subscriber who had only recently discovered the 18-year cycle after watching an interview I conducted with Atelier Wealth. You can listen to the interview here: open.spotify.com/episode/5BY… While he understood the economic drivers, his question was... **WHY DO YOU THINK IT'S 18 YEARS?** I've written about this before, but the conversation got me thinking, and today I want to push the research a little further and really emphasise just how important this recurring period of time has been throughout history. If you've been following this publication for any length of time, you'll already know that researchers have identified countless economic cycles throughout history. The decade cycle, the 30-year cycle, the 54-to-60-year Kondratieff wave, the 72-year cycle, the 82-to-84-year war cycle, Gann's 90-year major time cycle, the Kuznets cycle, and numerous others, many of which happen to be harmonics of the land cycle's recessionary periods. But as I've argued in previous reports, a thorough understanding of the 18-year cycle and the economic forces driving it is enough to keep you well ahead of the prevailing economic forecasts and narratives that litter the internet, without needing to know anything about any other cycle at all! And I don't say that lightly. Few economic cycles have attracted such an extensive body of historical research as the 18-year cycle, much of which remains surprisingly unfamiliar to modern investors. Despite the centuries of historical research about it, the cycle remains almost entirely absent from mainstream economic analysis. It's almost as if it was deliberately designed that way. In fact, that was one of the questions the subscriber raised when he called. If the cycle is so well documented, how come the big players don't seem to know about it? It's a stigma I've been trying to break down for years through the many conversations and interviews I've had with economists, commentators and anyone else with a bit of influence who's willing to listen and engage with the research! **IN THIS WEEK'S MAIN REPORT YOU'LL DISCOVER...** • The 18-year cycle was understood thousands of years ago. So why do modern economists still struggle to explain its remarkably consistent timing? • What did the ancient Babylonians know? Extraordinary research into astronomical tablets reveals how they used the heavens to forecast events on Earth, including movements in commodity prices. • A recessionary timetable hiding in plain sight. From Samuel Benner to W.D. Gann, we examine the historical research and the recurring windows of economic crisis. • Wars, financial panics and economic collapses. Why have so many major historical upheavals coincided with these recurring periods? • From ancient Babylon to Australia's housing market in 2026. The latest figures from Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth reveal just how quickly the property boom is unravelling, and what the cycle suggests lies ahead. **THEN IN THIS WEEK'S INTERVIEW WITH DR CAMERON MURRAY...** Cameron @DrCameronMurray is one of Australia's most interesting independent economic thinkers, particularly when it comes to housing, land economics and the policies that drive property speculation. He's not afraid to challenge conventional economic thinking, and whether or not we agree on every point, I always find his research and analysis worth reading. In this interview, we discuss the deteriorating Australian housing market, the extraordinary boom in Brisbane and Perth, the outlook for construction, and the economic forces behind the 18-year land cycle. We also debate what the next few years might bring, including whether Australia's housing downturn will end in a sharp collapse or a more prolonged correction. I strongly encourage you to subscribe to Cameron's excellent Substack, Fresh Economic Thinking! fresheconomicthinking.com/ It's a terrific discussion, and a fitting way to finish this week's report. We discuss: • Australia's housing downturn: The latest deterioration in prices, sales and buyer demand. • Brisbane's property market: The extraordinary post-COVID boom, swelling listings and the risk of a substantial correction. • Perth and Adelaide: Whether the markets that experienced the strongest recent growth are now particularly vulnerable. • The 18-year land cycle: The economic forces behind recurring property booms and busts, and how reliably we can forecast their timing. • The construction sector: Why development activity can continue even after buyer demand has weakened, and the risks created by long construction lead times. • Sydney versus Melbourne: Their different property cycles and what that could mean for the next recovery. • New Zealand and Canada: What their prolonged housing corrections might tell us about Australia's outlook. • 2027–2028: Whether Australia faces a sharp property crash or a slower, more drawn-out downturn. **CLICK BELOW TO READ THE REPORT AND LISTEN TO THE INTERVIEW NOW!** landcycleinvestor.com/post/t… **THE BEST BOOK ON AUSSIE HOUSING I'VE READ IN YEARS - CALLUM NEWMAN** Callum @CalNewmanMT has been to the library again. It's his favourite place to hang out! And this week, he's been inspired by a book that tackles a question few politicians seem capable of answering. Why is Australia's housing crisis getting worse, despite all the promises to fix it? So impressed was he by the research that he's devoted this week's report to reviewing a publication that challenges almost everything we're told about Australia's housing problems. From the growing divide between rich and poor to the dangerous consequences of turning housing into a speculative investment, it's a fascinating look at where Australia is heading if we continue down the same path. And importantly, the book doesn't just identify the problems. It offers some rather interesting solutions! Callum reckons it's the best book on Australian housing he's read in years. Find out why! **CLICK HERE TO READ CALLUM'S REPORT NOW!** landcycleinvestor.com/post/t… P.S. Consider subscribing to Callum's Substack, Stockfindr! stockfindr.substack.com/ Here's what one subscriber recently said about it! (Unasked!) "Your posts really are valuable to me. I read a lot of stuff but you just cut through the noise and call it as you see it. I credit you for gains I've made on WTC, RMS, Gold and some mining stocks you flagged through a Fin Review link you included. Thank you. I should be paying you more! Quite apart from the financials, I also enjoy your musings on life in general." **FINALLY!** **GLOBAL FORECASTER DAVID MURRIN IS JOINING US FOR A LIVE Q&A EVENT OCTOBER 22ND, 8PM MELBOURNE TIME (AEDT)** **SEND IN YOUR QUESTIONS NOW!** [email protected] I've managed to get Global Forecaster David Murrin to join us for a LIVE ZOOM EVENT this coming THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22ND, at 8pm Melbourne time (AEDT). David is one of the world's most recognised long-range forecasters. Over several decades he has built a reputation for identifying major turning points in markets, commodities, debt cycles and geopolitical power shifts well before they enter mainstream discussion. David's work on the Kondratieff Wave, war cycles, sovereign debt and the rise and fall of empires has attracted a massive global following of investors, business leaders and independent researchers seeking to understand the bigger forces driving events. This is a very rare opportunity to hear David LIVE, to interact and ask your questions. In recent years David has been warning of a period of increasing geopolitical tension, rising commodity prices, inflationary pressures and a struggle for global dominance unlike anything seen since the last great hegemonic transition. With markets once again pushing into record highs, AI speculation running wild and conflict escalating across multiple regions, there has rarely been a more important time to revisit his forecasts. We can also venture into some of David's more controversial areas of research, including his work on unidentified aerial phenomena, ancient civilisations and the possibility that humanity's history may be far more complex than we currently understand! **We'll be taking questions live. However, those who submit questions in advance will get priority so I can prepare some slides.** **I'll send out another reminder tomorrow.** landcycleinvestor.com/post/t…

This week's The Macro & The Mortgage Podcast with Leith Van Onselen from Macro Business and Catherine Cashmore from Land Cycle Investor breaks down the ongoing downturn in home values, the latest rental market data, government debt, critiques the Coalition's 'smoke and mirrors' immigration policy, and answers viewer questions. Catch new episodes every week on YouTube.. @leithvo or @landcycleinvestor Follow Leith Van Onselen at Macro Business macrobusiness.com.au Follow Catherine Cashmore at Land Cycle Investor: landcycleinvestor.com/ Time Stamps: 0:00 Introduction 4:44 This week's house price data 13:49 Rental market data 17:25 Government debt bomb 24:50 RBA has one blunt tool 30:50 Brisbane's house price crash? 46:10 Stamp duty discussion 52:02 Is MMT for real? 55:45 In defence of agents 1:03:39 Epic immigration rant 1:34:33 Outro youtube.com/watch?v=_8zXVJrL…

I have THREE reports for you this week! FIRSTLY! FRED HARRISON ON THE FUTURE OF THE 18-YEAR LAND CYCLE, ECONOMIC RENT AND THE CRISIS AHEAD... landcycleinvestor.com/post/f… I had the pleasure of catching up with Fred Harrison again this week, a dear friend and colleague whose contribution to the study of the 18-year land cycle and Georgist economics has been nothing short of monumental. Fred is currently working on what he tells me will be his final book, although I wouldn't put it past him to find another subject that demands his attention once it's finished! Despite having suffered some health issues, he's looking and doing better than ever, and his determination to continue researching, writing and challenging conventional economic thinking remains as strong as I've ever known it. I don't think many people can explain as clearly as Fred why economies are condemned to repeat the same destructive boom-bust cycle, or how the private appropriation of economic rent lies behind so many of the problems we see around us today, from growing inequality and political unrest to economic crises and war. In this interview, we discuss the upheaval taking place across Europe, the economic grievances underlying the protests, the enormous economic rents being captured by the technology giants, and how governments have allowed wealth generated through publicly created opportunities to accumulate in private hands rather than using it for the public good. We also discuss the potentially catastrophic consequences of the current cycle, and whether the economic and political changes now unfolding could mean that the familiar 18-year pattern, which has guided so much of our research, may not continue in the way we've come to expect. THE FUTURE OF THE 18-YEAR CYCLE? One subject I particularly wanted to explore was how Fred's own thinking about the cycle has evolved over the years, especially his understanding of why it lasts approximately 18 years. I've noticed some interesting changes in his reasoning, particularly in his more recent books, and towards the latter part of our conversation I questioned him about this in some detail. His answers were fascinating, not least because Fred is prepared to acknowledge what remains unexplained, and to reconsider ideas he has spent decades investigating. We also revisit the work of earlier cycle researchers, including Homer Hoyt and Roy Wenzlick, one of whom Fred met, and discuss how their understanding of the cycle differed from his own. For those of us who have devoted so much of our lives to studying the land cycle, Fred remains the shining beacon of this research. We all stand on his shoulders, drawing upon decades of painstaking historical and economic investigation that have given us a far deeper understanding of how the cycle operates, and more importantly, why it exists in the first place. Yet Fred's work has never simply been about forecasting the next property boom or bust. His concern has always been with the damage the system inflicts upon society, and what must change if future generations are to escape it. It's this broader perspective, and his extraordinary grasp of history, that makes conversations with him so valuable. I cherish every opportunity I have to speak with Fred, and I hope this interview gives subscribers an insight into some of his thinking that doesn't always come through in his other interviews, particularly the questions that remain unresolved and the direction his research is now taking as he works towards completing his final book. One small note before you watch. We had a few internet connection problems at Fred's end, which meant I had to pause the recording a couple of times while we waited for him to reconnect. I've left the recording unedited. The interruptions are very brief, and rather than risk losing any of the conversation through a laborious editing process, I thought it better to leave everything intact. I hope you enjoy the discussion as much as I did, and I'm enormously grateful to Fred for continuing to share his time, knowledge and research with us. (Transcript included) landcycleinvestor.com/post/f… ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ SECONDLY! BRISBANE'S OLYMPIC PROPERTY BOOM... WILL THE REAL WINDFALL GAINS COME AFTER THE CRASH? landcycleinvestor.com/post/b… When Brisbane was announced as host city for the 2032 Olympic Games and Paralympics (albeit in a one-horse race), it created a wave of excitement among property spruikers. The date of the Olympics in 2032 falls bang around the start of the next land cycle (from a bottom of around 2028/9–2046). Throughout the second half of this cycle, speculators have been jumping in and punting on future land price inflation in and around the city. I still get subscribers writing to me every month or two, questioning whether the Olympics will drive Brisbane's recovery in the first half of the next cycle, or whether the infrastructure spending will cause the current downturn in land prices to reverse or simply plateau. I'd love to give a straightforward yes or no answer. But the truth is, when it comes to assessing if the Olympics can cause the dial to move, it's dependent on a whole host of local factors — and it's not at all easy to separate the influence of the Olympics from other regional factors. Significantly, you'd need to assess... • The type of infrastructure built to accommodate the Games. • The speculation that occurs in areas where it is constructed compared to other areas. • Whether the infrastructure has a lasting influence on attracting population growth. • And most importantly — at what point in the 18-year real estate cycle the Olympics is held! I've written on this subject before, but for this week's report, I've gone back over the data to update my research and see whether the experience of previous Olympic host cities can shed any light on what's ahead for Brisbane. landcycleinvestor.com/post/b… ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ AND THIRDLY! TWO WARNING SHOTS AS THE FINANCIAL WORLD TREMBLES... BY CALLUM NEWMAN @CalNewmanMT landcycleinvestor.com/post/t… We've got another report from Callum Newman for Land Cycle Investor this week, and it's a timely warning about what happens when years of easy money, excessive debt and questionable financial practices finally catch up with the market. In "Two Warning Shots as the Financial World Trembles", Callum looks at two seemingly unrelated stories that may be telling us something important about where we are in the economic cycle. The first involves a billionaire industrialist, a mountain of debt, some extraordinary financial dealings and the collapse of an empire that once attracted enormous government and institutional support. The second is much closer to home — a proposed Australian stock market float with a staggering $44 billion valuation, built largely on expectations of what the AI boom might deliver in the future. What do these two stories have in common? Quite a lot, as it turns out. Callum digs into: • How billions can flow into businesses with questionable underlying financial strength. • Why rising interest rates have a habit of exposing what the boom years managed to conceal. • The warning signs investors should be watching as private debt comes under pressure. • Why the extraordinary sums being poured into AI infrastructure deserve much closer scrutiny. • And what these developments tell us about the final stages of the economic cycle. landcycleinvestor.com/post/t…

I have two reports for you this week! FIRSTLY! 18 YEARS AFTER LEHMAN BROTHERS COLLAPSED — COULD THE LAND CYCLE’S RECESSION WARNING BE ANY MORE PRECISE? (INCLUDES INTERVIEW WITH ECONOMIST STEVE KEEN..) Australia will not escape a technical recession at the end of this land cycle – as it did in 2008. That remains my forecast. The RBA has just jacked up the cash rate to 4.60% — its highest level since the Global Financial Crisis. Michelle Bullock is oblivious to the fact that it’s going to advance Australia into a recession. Yet here we go again, the illusion that making debt dearer will cure the shortages driving prices higher. Speaking at the RBA press conference this week, Bullock — who clearly had no idea what she was talking about or the carnage her decisions will cause — implied we’d be thanking her over the next couple of years… “There’s nothing I can say necessarily to make households feel better in this. I understand that. This is tough. And can I say that the Board did not take this decision lightly without thinking that we knew that this was going to hit some people pretty hard. We know this, but we have to do it if we are to bring inflation back down. “We need to do it if we are to bring inflation back down. “That’s our mandate, and ultimately, in the long run, hopefully in the next couple of years when we get inflation back down, this will all have been worth it.” Worth it?! Unsurprisingly, there’s been a plethora of outrage about the 0.25% rise online and in news reports. Everyone is busy calculating what it will put onto the average mortgage each month… questioning whether there are more rises ahead…. No one is talking about the cycle, however – or the recession that’s about to hit. For readers following the land cycle, another rate rise or two into the peak of the cycle should come as no surprise whatsoever. Throughout the second half of this cycle — since 2020 — I’ve repeatedly reiterated that we couldn’t have a sustained rate-cutting cycle into the peak – that the dial would have to turn to break the market. 2026 has been evidence of that. In this week’s report, I show you WHY the timing for a recession is now inevitable. I'll also demonstrate exactly why Australia won’t escape a technical recession this time and how government policy will influence the depth and duration of the downturn... Then in my interview with Steve Keen... STEVE KEEN: WHY RECESSION IS COMING — AND HOW GOVERNMENTS COULD MAKE IT WORSE Steve Keen has spent decades challenging mainstream economics and exposing the role banks and private debt play in driving booms — and busts. And he is also calling a recession. When I put the Land Cycle forecast to him — a panic next year, taking us into a technical recession by 2028 — he agreed it’s “a reasonable timeframe, yeah.” I wanted to hear what he sees coming, where he thinks central banks are going wrong, and what governments can do when the market breaks. Remember, Keen accurately picked the peak of the housing market prior to the recession of 2008. He also forecast in 2019 that the US would enter a recession in 2020. His research on complex systems modelling of debt-deflation was awarded the eminent Revere Award from the Real World Economics Review, describing Keen as the economist: “…who first and most clearly anticipated and gave public warning of the Global Financial Collapse and whose work is most likely to prevent another GFC in the future”. He wasn’t the first economist to give warning, as readers will be aware – but he was one of the most prominent to do so. Keen didn’t make his forecasts using the 18-year cycle (although he is familiar with the concept). His analysis comes from a purely monetary standpoint. I don’t agree with all of Steve’s views on world politics, but when it comes to money and its relationship with housing, he’s an important voice for us to pay attention to. The interview gives us a sense of what lies ahead — and how much will depend on the government’s response. Steve explains why he’s forecasting a very harsh few years, with the threat of fuel rationing as war disrupts essential supplies. He cuts through the BS in the mainstream economic narrative about government spending, inflation and tax, explaining how the policies sold to us as solutions keep feeding the same problems. His analysis helps explain why the cycle keeps repeating — and why our forecasts remain on track. We discuss: • Why rising interest rates are making things worse when inflation is coming from shortages of fuel and other essential supplies. • How rising costs can push households and businesses to the point where they can no longer service their debts. • Why government debt is different from your mortgage — and why Steve rejects the idea that the federal government has run out of money to respond to another crisis. • How cutting government spending to “get the budget back in order” can deepen a downturn, drawing on what happened during the Great Depression. • The concerns I raised from Michael Howell’s analysis about rising bond yields — and Steve’s response when I ask what happens if investors stop buying government bonds. • Whether cash in the bank is safe during a financial crisis, and why Steve argues that all deposits should be protected. • Whether the RBA could slash rates in a recession, even with inflation still high. • Why he expects the AI investment bubble to burst within the next one to two years. • Australia’s dependence on imported diesel, and what shortages could mean for getting food and other goods into our cities. • How first-home buyer incentives keep feeding the housing market — and his proposal to limit mortgage borrowing against a property’s rental income. landcycleinvestor.com/post/1… BUT WAIT — THERE'S MORE! OCTOBER MARKET UPDATE: MASTER FORECASTER ANDREW PANCHOLI ON THE WARNING SIGNS AND RALLY AHEAD — EXCLUSIVELY FOR LCI SUBSCRIBERS landcycleinvestor.com/post/o… October has a reputation for market turmoil. But it can also mark a low before the next rally. So which way should we be looking this month? In this month’s LCI exclusive market update, Andrew Pancholi joins me to discuss the warning signs he’s watching — 18 years after Lehman Brothers collapsed. Andrew is the author of The Market Timing Report and specialises in using historical cycles to identify potential turning points in financial markets. We look at... • Instability in US bonds, the longer-cycle parallels with 1936–37, and why the distinction between an 18-year and an 18.6-year cycle matters as we look towards 2027. • Copper is a particular focus. With commercial sellers and speculative buyers taking opposing positions, Andrew explains what the trading data is telling him — and why it matters for property, construction and the wider economy. • We also discuss the war cycles and how an escalation in the Middle East could complicate the outlook. Yet Andrew sees scope for a more bullish period beyond October, even as the longer-term warnings remain. Understanding the timing matters, particularly if you’re deciding whether to take profits, hold back or commit more money. This was a good conversation that flowed well. We recorded late on Thursday night, with Andrew still jet-lagged after returning from the US, but there was plenty to discuss — and some important dates to watch! landcycleinvestor.com/post/1…

Two reports this week! FIRSTLY! THE K-WAVE: THE 54-YEAR CYCLE BEHIND WAR, COMMODITIES AND LAND.. I've had a few emails over recent weeks asking me to explain the Kondratiev cycle in more detail. I've written about the K-Wave previously, but in this week's report I've tried to pull the various strands together — looking at how Kondratiev's long wave relates to the cycles identified by Samuel Benner, and later Edward Dewey's fascinating work on war, building activity and commodities. I then bring it down to ground level. Because identifying a cycle is one thing; understanding where the wealth created by it actually ends up is another. I look at how each great wave of innovation changes the value of land and location — from railways, roads and the motor car to the infrastructure being built around AI today — and where the resulting economic rent is ultimately captured.... In the early 20th century, economist Joseph Schumpeter popularised the term ‘creative destruction’ He was describing what happens when a new way of doing things starts to become the norm. The motor car that came to prominence in the 1950s, for example did not just replace the horse and carriage - it changed where roads were built, migration patters - where people lived and dictated which businesses would survive. That process can create enormous wealth, but it rarely leaves that wealth in the same locations — or in the same hands! Schumpeter got his insights from Russian economist, Nikolai Kondratiev. Kondratiev was not the first to come up with theory, but his research was extensive. He studied a bunch of wholesale commodity prices — textiles, coal, pig iron, gold etc, in France, England and the US. He also looked at wages, interest rates, rents and saving deposits. In brief, Kondratiev argued that expansion and decline characterise capitalist economies, spanning approximately 54–60 years. That’s 25–30 years up, and 25–30 years down. These were not the ordinary ups and downs of a business cycle. Kondratiev was looking at changes that unfolded over generations, using movements in prices, wages, interest rates and trade to trace the longer wave beneath them... In this week's report you'll discover.. - What the Kondratiev Wave can tell us about where we are in the current long economic cycle — and what may lie ahead. - The intriguing connection between Kondratiev, Samuel Benner and Edward Dewey — three very different approaches that appear to converge around some surprisingly similar timeframes. - Why war repeatedly appears at particular points in the long wave, and what Dewey discovered when he went looking for a cycle in conflict. - How the 18-year land cycle fits within the much longer K-Wave — and an unusual piece of historical data that helps connect the two. - Why the great technological revolutions of the past offer an important clue about where the real gains from the next wave may ultimately end up. - And what AI, data centres and the emerging race for infrastructure may already be telling us about the next shift in land value. landcycleinvestor.com/post/t… BUT WAIT - THERE'S MORE! DAVID MURRIN: THE CURRENT K-WAVE, WAR & WHAT COMES NEXT.. To accompany this week's report, I caught up again with David Murrin, founder of Global Forecaster, whose work I've followed and featured on Land Cycle Investor for several years. And the timing of this conversation couldn't be more relevant. We discuss the rapidly changing war in the Middle East, the importance of the world's major maritime routes, what is happening to oil, and why David believes apparently separate conflicts need to be understood as part of a much larger geopolitical shift. We also get into the K-Wave itself, David's longer war and empire cycles, government spending and rearmament, and what all of this could mean for markets as we move through the latter years of the current cycle. But we venture well beyond economics. We talk about, - Cognitive warfare and the difficulty of separating information from manipulation in the age of social media, - AI and where that technology may ultimately take us, - and one of the more fascinating subjects we come back to often — UAPs, the extraordinary increase in official attention surrounding them, and David's thoughts on what may actually be going on. It makes for a very wide-ranging discussion — from Kondratiev and commodities to war, AI, UAPs and the recurring patterns of human behaviour that David believes sit beneath them all. Whether you agree with all of David's conclusions or not, he always forces you to consider events from a different angle. There's a lot packed into this one. P.S. I'll be having David Murrin back for another Live LCI Q&A event over the next couple of months! Stay tuned.. landcycleinvestor.com/post/d…

I have two reports for you this week! FIRSTLY! THE LAND CYCLE CRASH IS COMING – SO WHY WOULD YOU BUY NOW?!? INCLUDES - LCI interview with Tom Panos who makes the case for buying now... But what happened to buyers who waited in 1974, 1991 and 2008? A couple of weeks ago, I reached out to Tom Panos to see if he would join me for an interview. Tom has built an enormous following on social media sharing his daily life as he travels all over Australia and internationally - coaching real estate agents, calling auctions … giving his take on what is happening on the ground. If you follow Tom, you’ll know he is also an entertaining character. He has been through cancer, lost his brother at a young age, looks after his elderly Greek parents and talks very openly about the lessons he has picked up along the way. Now, Tom is not an economist. He knows nothing about the 18-year Land Cycle and doesn't pretend to. He views the property market through the experience of someone who has spent decades working inside it. Having said that, Tom has been around long enough to have lived through a fair portion of the current and previous cycles — including the brutal downturn of the early 1990s — and that gives him a perspective worth listening to. I wasn't entirely sure he would respond when I contacted him, but surprisingly, he was more than happy to have a chat. I thought that was a pretty good win to be honest – and I was not sure what to expect. I should have known it wouldn’t be the conventional sit-down interview! Tom joined me while wandering around an Apple Store of all places! So our conversation was relatively brief! Nevertheless, there were some valuable insights in the 30 minutes we had together — particularly when it came to the question confronting buyers right now. Tom's view is that, for buyers who can afford to purchase and find the right property, now is a good time to buy! Don’t try to pick the bottom or, as he puts it, "catch a falling knife". But is this really so?? After all, what is the point of understanding the Land Cycle if we cannot use that knowledge to our advantage? If we believe we are approaching the recessionary end of the cycle, and that property prices have further to fall, then isn’t the obvious argument to wait? As regular readers know, I have been warning for some time that Australia is on the verge of falling into a recession as we get to the end of the land cycle. We’re not in a good position to avoid it this time..... The obvious conclusion, therefore, is – “wait!” Why buy a property today if we are on the verge of the land cycle crash, and there is a reasonable chance you can buy it more cheaply next year? But there is a problem with that argument also - and it was one of the points Tom raised during our conversation. The price of the property is only one side of the transaction. For most buyers, the other side is credit. It doesn't matter if a property falls from $1 million to $900,000 if, during the same period, the amount the bank is prepared to lend you falls by $150,000. You haven't become $100,000 better off. Your effective purchasing power has gone backwards. So, for this report, I went back through Australia's previous major property and economic downturns to see what actually happened. Would you have been better positioned buying in 1989, or waiting until the recession of 1991? What about buying in 2007–08, compared with waiting until the depths of the Global Financial Crisis? And perhaps most importantly for where we are today - what happened in 1974, when Australia entered a downturn while inflation remained a serious problem?! In this week's report you'll discover.. - Why the headline property-price falls from previous crashes don’t tell the whole story. - What really happened to property buyers who waited through the 1974, 1990–91 and 2008 downturns. - The surprising lesson from the 1990–91 recession that changed how I looked at Tom Panos’s argument. - Why 1974 may prove particularly important for understanding what comes next. - What happens when property prices fall — but your ability to borrow changes at the same time. - And the question that sent me back through 50 years of property history: if we know the Land Cycle downturn is coming, should we buy in any Australian markets now — or wait? Then in my interview with Tom.. - Why Tom believes waiting for property prices to bottom can actually leave some buyers worse off. - Why your borrowing capacity may matter more than the price you eventually pay. - What Tom remembers from working through previous property downturns — including the brutal early-1990s recession. - What he's seeing on the ground right now from buyers, sellers and agents across Australia. - Why buying a home and buying an investment property require very different decisions. - How Tom thinks about interest rates, affordability and taking on debt as the market weakens. - Why job security becomes just as important as property prices when the economy turns. - And a very personal discussion about cancer, losing his brother, caring for his elderly parents — and why those experiences changed the way he thinks about money, work and what actually matters. WAIT - THERE'S MORE! COPPER: THE MARKET AT RISK OF A VELOCIRAPTOR ATTACK!? landcycleinvestor.com/post/c… Callum Newman joins us once again this week with a warning on one of the market’s most crowded bullish trades: copper. The long-term story looks almost impossible to argue with — AI, data centres, electrification and enormous demand for new infrastructure. Copper is one of those markets I watch closely as we move through the final stages of the Land Cycle. Demand for copper is heavily tied to construction, infrastructure and economic activity, so it is not unusual to see prices pushed to all time highs as the boom reaches its peak. But we're now moving beyond the property-price peak and towards the downturn, which makes what happens next a very interesting question!? While the dominant story around copper remains relentlessly bullish — Callum thinks investors may be watching the wrong things... IN CALLUM’S REPORT YOU’LL DISCOVER… - Why Callum thinks copper could be setting investors up for a “velociraptor attack.” - The warning appearing in market positioning that few copper bulls are talking about. - Why the supposed global copper shortage may not be quite what it appears. - What’s happening to copper inventories — and why China still matters far more than the AI story suggests. - The tariff decision that could suddenly change the copper equation. - And why Callum believes the long-term bull story may be right — while copper still gets hit hard in the short term.... landcycleinvestor.com/post/t…

I have two reports for you this week! FIRSTLY! BATHLA COLLAPSE: THE 18-yr CANARY IN THE COAL MINE WARNING FOR AUSTRALIA’S 2027 CRASH? landcycleinvestor.com/post/b… I had an email from US housing commentator Melody Wright this week. Regular readers of Land Cycle Investor will be familiar with Melody. She has spent years digging beneath the headline numbers in the US housing market, particularly in areas that receive far less attention from mainstream analysts - mortgage stress, distressed borrowers, the plumbing of housing finance and what’s actually happening on the ground when the official data is telling a rather different story. I've interviewed Melody a number of times over the years and, more recently, introduced her to the 18-year land cycle. She has since begun incorporating elements of the cycle into her own analysis of the US market, and we’ve continued to correspond about what we’re seeing on both sides of the world. It's been a great connection. This week, however, it was Australia that caught her attention. News of the collapse of Sydney property giant Bathla Group had reached her desk, and she emailed me wanting to understand the scale of what had happened and, more importantly, what I thought it meant in the context of the land cycle. And that is exactly where I want to start this week, because the timing of this collapse matters every bit as much as its scale. The below is taken from Melody’s latest SubStack “Catherine is the reason I first started studying the 18-year land cycle. “For over a decade now, she has been focused on 2027, so you will want to hear her view on what’s next for home prices in Australia as we may also soon be looking into this mirror…” Here’s what I told Melody's readers: This is massive — because of the timing as well as the scale. I think Bathla is the canary in the coal mine for the end-of land cycle downturn I’ve been forecasting into 2027, and I fully expect there will be more pain to come as the repercussions spread throughout the whole industry. Even before Bathla collapsed, ASIC had issued a warning on 18 June 2026 — more than two months before Bathla entered administration — that the private-credit sector was “facing its first real test”. By then, the May federal budget had announced the negative-gearing and CGT changes, pulling investor demand sharply out of the market — and that was on top of the rate rises that had already taken effect. Sydney and Melbourne prices were already falling, and the smaller states that had held up longer then started to turn as well. In May alone, dwelling values fell 0.9% in Sydney and 0.8% in Melbourne. Today, every capital-city market outside Darwin is in a downturn. The Crash Tracker chart below has been put together by my colleague and podcast partner at The Macro & The Mortgage, Leith Van Onselen from MacroBusiness. It shows how the current decline is tracking against some of the worst in recent history. In the May release, ASIC said it was seeing a “slow creep in credit stress indicators”, including “pockets of higher defaults, impairments, and loan amendments”. No surprise that it specifically singled out property development. Developers are historically always among the first casualties when the cycle turns. The release warned of “valuations lagging economic reality” — developers facing “cost escalation, project delays, soft presales, unsold stock, and weaker refinancing conditions”. It then told lenders they “should not wait for formal defaults before reassessing asset values and related risks”. And lo and behold, no more than two months later, one of the country's largest developers has collapsed owing more than $3 billion to secured lenders.... In this week's report, I delve back through more than a century of little-known Land Cycle research to show WHY the Bathla collapse is such a massive warning bell for what lies ahead. This is research that every serious student of the Land Cycle needs to know. Much of it comes from researchers who are rarely mentioned today, yet their analysis helps explain why a shortage of housing relative to population growth will not extend the cycle indefinitely — or prevent it from turning. It also highlights why the timing is so significant In this week's report you'll discover.. - What more than a century of research into building cycles tells us about the significance of a major developer failing at this precise point in the cycle. - The striking parallels with Australia’s 1970s property bust, when major developer failures preceded a much broader collapse across property, credit and equities. - The modern evidence showing that building permits and development activity turn ahead of financial markets, recession and major financial crises. - Why Australia’s supposed “housing shortage” may offer far less protection from falling property prices than many investors have been led to believe. - The remarkable research stretching back more than a century that uncovered a recurring 18–20-year cycle in building booms and busts — and the crucial role credit plays in both fuelling the boom and bringing it to an end. - And why I believe Bathla may be the canary in the coal mine for the recessionary phase of the land cycle — and the downturn we have been expecting into 2027. landcycleinvestor.com/post/b… WAIT! There's more! LCI INTERVIEW WITH DAVID BIRD (aka ASX TRADER): WHERE TO HIDE AS THE CYCLE TURNS?! landcycleinvestor.com/post/l… Following on from this week’s report on the Bathla collapse, I caught up with David Bird for another wide-ranging discussion on where we are in the land cycle — and, more importantly for investors, what the charts are now telling us about the markets. I've known David for a few years now and first introduced him to the 18-year land cycle back in 2023. What makes this conversation particularly interesting is that he approaches markets from a different direction to me. I’m looking at the longer land and economic cycle; David is looking at what is actually showing up in the charts. Increasingly, those two pictures are beginning to tell a similar story. We discuss the Bathla collapse and why the supposed Australian “housing shortage” doesn't protect the property market from a downturn, before moving across to equities, where David believes the warning signs are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. He takes us through a stack of charts comparing today's market with previous major turning points and explains what he is seeing in the S&P 500, bond yields and the changing momentum beneath the market. Some of the most valuable analysis comes from David's views on where capital may rotate next. We look at gold, oil, copper, energy and resources, why hard assets have historically performed differently when equities struggle, and the extraordinary resource and energy demands emerging from AI and the data-centre boom. There are a lot of charts in this interview, so I recommend watching rather than simply listening if you can. David is a very smart market analyst and a great teacher, and there is plenty here for investors to think about as we move through what is becoming a particularly important turning point in the cycle. The Transcript is provided. landcycleinvestor.com/post/l…

I have two reports for you this week!! The first! landcycleinvestor.com/post/t… This week I sat down with property analyst Michael Matusik, who has spent more than three decades working across Australia's housing, property and planning sectors. Michael has recently conducted his own investigation into the 18-year land cycle, prompted by questions from attendees at his annual Master Class about Samuel Benner's famous financial timetable, (shown below.) I wrote about Benner’s chart in some detail a year or so ago in The Prophecies of Samuel Benner & George Tritch – What They Reveal About the Land Cycle. However, Michael’s analysis gives me a good opportunity to revisit it, because there are a few important aspects of Benner’s work that are particularly relevant to where we are in the cycle today. Rather than accepting the 18-year land cycle at face value, Michael went back through Australian housing data to see whether the long cyclical pattern could be identified independently. I was delighted to read Michael’s analysis. It is exactly what we need to see when it comes to the cycle. As I pointed out in my Land Cycle paper, the 1930s produced a substantial body of research into long property cycles, with researchers including Homer Hoyt, Roy Wenzlick, Arthur H. Cole and Clarence Long among many others, independently arriving at broadly the same conclusion - that there was, on average, a 16–20 year property cycle across numerous markets. It is only when this body of evidence is properly recognised that we are likely to see broader mainstream acceptance that the land cycle is not simply an historical curiosity, but a predictable feature of the economy - and one that requires policy intervention before the speculative peak is reached, rather than attempts to repair the economic damage after the cycle has already broken! Michael’s research found major growth peaks across markets including Blacktown, Moreton Bay, the Central Coast, Geelong, the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and Melbourne separated by approximately 18 to 21 years. Today's report is going to flow in three sections. - First I share Michael’s report and analysis. - Then I'll add my own commentary on how the cycle should be viewed in the context of Samuel Benner’s financial timetable - giving some hints on how it was calculated - Then you can sit back and listen to this week’s interview as we delve into current real estate trends and the 18-year land cycle a little further. In today's report you'll discover.. - Does the 18-year land cycle really stand up when tested against Australian property history? - What Michael Matusik discovered when he went looking for the pattern himself. - The remarkable forecasting detail hidden within Samuel Benner’s famous timetable. - What an extraordinary prediction made in the 1870s can teach us about the cycle today. - Why the precise timing of past turning points matters far more than it first appears. - Why the years on the Benner timetable fluctuate. - What the timetable tells us re 2026 - And where the next great property opportunities could emerge once the cycle turns. landcycleinvestor.com/post/t… WAIT! THERE'S MORE!.... EVEN WARREN BUFFETT DOESN’T UNDERSTAND THE LAND CYCLE! Then Callum Newman chimes in with his report, showing why even the world’s greatest investors can get caught on the wrong side of the land cycle. He takes a fascinating look at Warren Buffett’s investment record, the mistakes buried beneath Berkshire Hathaway’s extraordinary success, and why its latest multibillion-dollar bet on US housing could prove particularly badly timed as we approach the next major turn. You'll discover.. - Why Warren Buffett’s extraordinary investment record may hide some surprisingly costly mistakes. - The Berkshire Hathaway strategy that helped turn Buffett into one of the world’s richest investors. - What changed at Berkshire after 2000 — and the enormous opportunity cost Callum says followed. - The investment decisions Buffett made as the last land cycle unravelled in 2007–08. - Why Berkshire’s latest US$8.5 billion bet on a US homebuilder has Callum questioning the timing. - What happens when one of the world’s greatest investors ignores the land cycle. - Why even Berkshire Hathaway may not be the “safe” retirement stock investors assume as the cycle turns. landcycleinvestor.com/post/e… If you enjoy Callum’s analysis, make sure you follow him over at Stockfindr on Substack. With 15 years’ experience as a financial analyst and previous work published through Fat Tail Investment Research, Marcus Today, Livewire and Money Magazine, Callum brings the same independent, provocative thinking you’ve just read here to his own work - digging into markets, stocks and investment ideas that deserve a closer look. It’s free to subscribe, so jump over and sign up! substack.com/@ftcal