Um lance de dados jamais abolirá o acaso: política, geopolítica e tecnologia pela lente dos mercados preditivos.
Rio de Janeiro
Joined January 2010
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Futuros Imperfeitos retweeted
History points to stronger equity returns ahead:
Since 1928, the S&P 500 has risen +2.1% on average during the first half of October in US midterm election years, making it the strongest-performing half-month of Q4.
Over this period, positive returns occurred 71% of the time, the 3rd-best hit rate of the last quarter of the year.
This follows a historically weak second half of September, which has seen a -1.1% decline on average.
Subsequently, in the second half of October, the S&P 500's average return is +0.3%, with a 62% hit rate.
November has historically been even stronger, with the first half averaging a +1.7% return and posting positive returns 79% of the time.
Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks.
Futuros Imperfeitos retweeted
O diferencial dos traders de sucesso da @Polymarket não é acertar o resultado de uma aposta, mas sim saber quando vender.
As lições de @Domahhhh mostram que importante é se antecipar aos movimentos. 🧵
Futuros Imperfeitos retweeted
two types of autism
nitter.cf/TheRoyalSerf/status/18…
Futuros Imperfeitos retweeted
A pressing challenge for the world to solve at scale, is getting comfy with discomfort. Thoughtful discourse should be at least a little uncomfortable, but leads to better decisions and outcomes.
<3 the motto of @zuvillage is 'think for yourself, build for everyone'
Futuros Imperfeitos retweeted
In a 2019 interview, Lula recalled: “The US was very much afraid when I discussed a new currency, and Obama called me telling me, ‘Are you trying to create a new currency, a new euro?’ I said, ‘No, I’m just trying to get rid of the US dollar. I’m just trying not to be dependent’”
