Defence and defence-related markets and equities. Not investment advice. Do your own due diligence.
Joined January 2025
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Challenging Defence Markets retweeted
Foreign defence contractors will need to invest in UK under new rules bbc.in/3WUydqK
Challenging Defence Markets retweeted
$LPTH Last Q Sam explicitly stated that two cUAS systems are progressing into "a cadance of deliveries of tens of systems a month."… one of those is almost definitely Trust Automation, we are even seeing the articles on the deployment now. While I wish we knew the production ramp, but assuming that cadence only started during the middle of last Q then this upcoming quarter to be reported could see a significant jump in revs due to the c-UAS deployment alone.
U.S. Army and U.S. Air Force troops in Germany are learning to spot and stop small drones together, using a radar-based system called RD-SUADS that can be set up almost anywhere.
defence-blog.com/u-s-militar…
Challenging Defence Markets retweeted
Interesting to see how $AVIO's defense business with MBDA keeps growing.
Another €55m+ order for ASTER 30 rocket motors.
Not just larger orders, but shorter production periods.
Growing demand for ASTER 30 and SAMP/T NG is becoming an increasingly important driver for $AVIO's defense business.
Challenging Defence Markets retweeted
Price bump from $170 to $190 (+17%ish) on the Fat Shark Recon HD Goggles. At least on the Rotor Riot website for retail purchasers. $UMAC
Challenging Defence Markets retweeted
Berenberg upgrades $AVIO.MI from Hold to BUY, raising its price target from €33 to €39.
More interesting is the reassessment of Avio's Defence Propulsion business. Berenberg now expects €532m in revenue by 2030, up from its previous estimate of €312m (+71%).
This development was foreseeable for some time.
Avio started working with Raytheon ($RTX) on solid rocket motors back in 2024, followed by cooperation agreements with $LMT and $RTX in November 2025.
Then came the announcement of the $500m factory in Virginia, the groundbreaking in September 2026 and Advent's €109m investment.
I've been highlighting this business for quite some time. Avio is increasingly becoming an important independent supplier to the US missile industry. Good to see analysts starting to reflect that potential in their forecasts.
Challenging Defence Markets retweeted
Just giving this a wee nudge today...
✍️ Britain does have an economic model. It just happens to be a consumer website.
I wrote something about the moneysavingexpert economy and why it's facing an existential crisis. And why this isn't just a UK issue...
Have a read👇
edconway.substack.com/p/the-…
Challenging Defence Markets retweeted
Putting the finishing touches on a deep dive into the latest developments with $LPTH
Article will be published on my substack - if you're not already subscribed, please do so.
It's free, and will remain free.
optimusdelta.substack.com/
🫡
Challenging Defence Markets retweeted
Sitting here working on $UMAC Q3 numbers.
Allan has provided their internal targets of $12M to $14M for the Q, down from $16.72M in Q2.
Reasons given are:
- Inventory shortages on electronics parts due to outgrowing a vendor and vendor switching
- Motor factory construction for installation of the first automated line
- Motor defect spillover into Q3. A defect was caught in Q2 and addressed, and they're continuing to replace customer inventory.
With that in mind, I built a table to help understand where that would fall vs UMAC's historical performance.
Taking the lowest all time revenue/employee set in Q2 '25, measured with end of Q headcount of 38 (ergo most diluted rev/emp), against the beginning period Q3 headcount of 240, we'd just be below the $14 internal target at $13.5M.
Taking the lowest rev/emp against midpoint headcount, set in Q1 '26 at just below $73k/emp, against beginning of period Q3 (240), suggests $17.5M.
Then I take a look at the suggested revenue for Q4, measuring against average rev/emp in Q2 (the latest for which we actually have numbers) and my guess for midpoint Q4 headcount at 350 (we're at 330 with the UE close), suggests about $30.7M vs the $25M Allan indicated in the Q2 call.
All just a fun experiment to see what's possible vs what's been communicated. Also strengthens my perspective that we'll likely see numbers come in at the high end of Allan's target, if not slightly above. A miss below $12 would require a lot of explanation.
Challenging Defence Markets retweeted
Well good morning $LPTH
My best guess on value is based on small infrared lens assemblies for Group 1 drones selling somewhere in the USD 50-200 range each, so probably USD 2.5-10M.
The more important part is the volume and the cadence, as 50,000 units is a production run rather than a qualification lot, and it lands two weeks after a USD 6.3M follow-on from the C-UAS customer that had already placed USD 13M in July, so the assemblies business is now booking repeat orders at scale from what reads as two different customers.
It also fits what the numbers were already showing, with assemblies and modules going from 23% of revenue in FY25 to 44% in FY26, and the release says they've been adding automation and capacity for exactly this kind of volume.
The DoW is trying to field 200,000+ low-cost drones under Drone Dominance alone, and I suspect the list of suppliers who can actually ship NDAA-compliant infrared optics in the tens of thousands is a short one 🫦
Amazing work @skrubin and the @lightpathtech team
Conviction will be rewarded.
lightpath.com/press-viewer?i…
Challenging Defence Markets retweeted
$LPTH
LightPath Technologies Secures Order for Over 50,000 Optical Assemblies for Drones from Key Defense Customer
lightpath.com/press-viewer?h…
Challenging Defence Markets retweeted
Introducing: AD-1 Inferno and AD-2 Ambush, @HelsingAI’s new air defence interceptors.
Designed to outmatch and outrun even the fastest jet-powered drone and cruise missile threats. 1/4
Challenging Defence Markets retweeted
Also, anyone notice how optical suppliers are now adding notices for germanium containing products where the notices state that inventory is limited and no raw material is available to make more once it runs out!
edmundoptics.co.uk/f/PdfExpo…
Challenging Defence Markets retweeted
An article just dropped on "The Information" regarding $UMAC's acquisition of Upgrade Energy.
It appears that UE's customers include Neros, Anduril, and $AVAV. The article also indicates Upgrade Energy sells to Perennial Autonomy, another Drone Gauntlet standout.
Looking like an excellent acquisition, and concerns about having overpaid are likely to be put to rest within a few Qs.
Congrats @evansall and team!
Challenging Defence Markets retweeted
BREAKING: Anthropic officially files its S-1 registration statement for an IPO, seeking to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol $ANT.
FULL SUMMARY OF ANTHROPIC'S S-1 FILING:
1. Anthropic posted H1 2026 revenue of $16.3 billion with a net loss of $80.7 billion
2. Anthropic says it does not expect to pay a dividend "in the foreseeable future"
3. Expects to spend up to $120.5 billion on SpaceXAI and Nvidia compute
4. Expects to spend up to $114.5 billion with Google through 2033
5. Revenue growth rate "may not be sustainable" and "may decrease"
6. May be required to seek additional financing "sooner than expected"
7. 5% of Anthropic's shares will go to the "Anthropic Public Benefit Fund"
8. S-1 includes warnings of AI's "catastrophic existential risks to humanity"
Markets currently expect Anthropic to raise as much as $100 billion at a valuation of ~$2 trillion.
The company is reportedly targeting an IPO in the week of November 16th.