Private equity investor trying to better understand how the world works. DMs open / encouraged
Manhattan, NY
Joined February 2009
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You aren't getting dunked on because of taxes or formatting, the ridiculousness of this is
1. Your own stated reasoning is to understand rev/gw capex/gw and it is literally historical numbers and then hard codes...that is not a bottoms up build.
2. Use AI (ur bragging u didn't prompt, what year are we in)- this would have turned out much better and been more thoughtful
3. It took a week, this is a 30 min exercise for an intern and when they turn this in u say what is this garbage at least try to instrincally understand the cost of inputs and the demand drivers for utilization and the constraints to orbital compute
Dude has a PhD from Caltech, clearly brilliant but interesting when applied elsewhere...
Sure you can say it was just something fun or a hobby / not serious...but he posted it as though it was something interesting/ thoughtful / worthy of being commented on.
To the morons that have tried to dunk on this model
The point of it was to try to estimate the core inputs:
1) How many GWs will SpaceX have online in 2027 and 2028?
2) How will rev/GW and CapEx/GW change over time?
3) How will Starship launches ramp?
4) When will the first orbital compute sats launch?
These are the hard things to estimate that matter. Everything else (taxes lol) are trivial outputs based on CapEx decisions in 2028
Saw this after I posted, better said
I am the first to see a 1,000-line model as financial masturbation, and while the "change in working capital and taxes" is obviously provocative, I stand by my comment that it would have been nice to see more.
Revenue
> I totally agree that a model is really dependent on 3 to 5 assumptions, but the issue is that you just hardcode without explaining the logic to us normies.
> You can call me a moron, but that's also how my PM would describe me if I showed him a model built on hardcodes because "management said so."
> Why do you believe these launch numbers are right, or that this terrestrial compute is right? What market size are you assuming for each, what share does it represent, etc. - show us more!
Profitability
> Are we sure we are not missing the forest for the trees? $600bn of EBITDA for the SI segment alone run-rate in Q4'28 is more than Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft... combined.
Capital Efficiency
> It is really interesting to see that capex/GW goes down while rent/GW stays flat... are we saying this is not a commodity?
To conclude: Shaun, you have generated more carry in SpaceX than I ever will in 100 lifetimes, and there is no doubt you are a phenomenal investor + Elon has shocked the world more times than we can count and I am sure he will keep doing so.
That said, a model remains a model, and aggressive assumptions will always result in high valuations.
It would have been nice to see more of the assumptions and logic behind them.
"Sources close to the negotiations said that Kushner has assured Walter he has raised all the money necessary to complete the sale."
His Equity financing tracker says differently, thought I saw him at McGuire Woods
Brought to a bullpen near you
Man, didn't realize Kushner was an independent sponsor. its tough out there
Josh Kushner is still $5-6 BILLION short on the Lakers deal and Bob Iger is only putting in "like 63 million dollars," per @BillSimmons
"I think they're using the Buss family as scapegoats for why the deal's dragging along, but he can't find the money."
"hey i saw you typing, what were you going to say"...nothing...i no longer wanted to say it... That's why i stopped typing and didn't send.
Equivalent of a VP twenty years later taking credit / saying it's a 5x for a portco they didn't underwrite but were on the board of 8 months after starting .
Hi Sandy. Are you well? This is wrong. On January 1, 1993, we sent a press release saying that multiplayer would be in DOOM, a full 8 months before you joined the company. We knew deathmatch would be huge. In that press release, in January 1993, we said multiplayer would be "the number one cause of decreased productivity in businesses around the world." We were sure of it, and we needed no convincing. I understand you are proud of your work on DOOM, and you should be, but please also respect the accuracy of your statements, particularly around game history. My concern is that these false statements are designed to trigger replies (like this one), reposts, and outrage discussion, all with the view of increasing your followers and subscriptions, particularly since this false deathmatch story (among others) is so easily disproved. I’ve even welcomed you to reach out to me ahead of time. You seem to appreciate game history as much as I do. Could you not also make yours accurate?
Why did anthropics s-1 not have an explicit reference to Alignment is unsolveable?
Dental office I haven't visited in 8 years that's now thousands of miles away from me still wishing me happy birthday, always appreciated, always appreciated.
~first time I met my father in law I was walking fast / slightly in front of everyone (you know trying to get everyone to pick up the pace).
Apparently, he told my now wife, I don't like how fast he's walking.
In hindsight I should have whipped out this study and said don't worry it bodes well for ur grandkids intelligence. Would have gone over well I'm sure.
Many years ago managing partner loops me into call with him and the Associate below me to go over cash flow forecast and debt amendment (we were blowing thru covenants) while I was about six cocktails deep after skiing in Breckenridge. Was a rough one...tbf was on a defined vacation but didn't matter .
There are some deep implications around the belief that one needs to invest $50mm to develop a managing partner in wealth management...and have no idea what they are lol, but interesting thought experiment.
I don't know if it means it's a commodity, a moat, an inflated sense of position (thats how valuable i am), deflated sense of position (it would take that much money for someone to buy our product, ouch), etc.
I also don't understand why networking would be such a big part of it unless it is a commodity, I think. idk seems like a tough business
