@D_Stow

A place for me to jot down my personal macro financial thoughts and opinions. By no means advice.

Joined November 2011
Daniel Stow retweeted
BREAKING 🚨: Housing Market The largest mortgage lender in the United States, United Wholesale Mortgage, just fell to its lowest closing price in history and is on track for its 9th consecutive red month, its longest losing streak in history 📉 👀 😱
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Daniel Stow retweeted
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is likely to reduce the auction sizes for long-dated government bonds — and could even cancel sales of 20-year debt altogether, according to Citigroup bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Daniel Stow retweeted
FLASHBACK | Judy Shelton joined Treasury this week as an advisor to Scott Bessent. Two years ago she told @KeithMcCullough a Treasury Secretary could issue long-term bonds convertible into gold, the same way TIPS were introduced in 1997. Full conversation 👇

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NEW - BC is headed to broke-town they just posted one of the HIGHEST sub-sovereign deficits per capita in the entire WORLD $2400 per PERSON, in one year! Who KNEW socialists were bad with money?
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Interesting chart by #BCA...#Deleveraging!
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Daniel Stow retweeted
The futures market is now pricing 1.4 rate hikes by year-end
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Me, Dec ‘24: “The Chinese central bank is currently buying at least ten times more gold than what you read in the newspaper” Newspaper (FT), Nov ‘25: “China’s unreported gold purchases could be more than 10 times its official figures.” tinyurl.com/fjjjzws9 tinyurl.com/ms3ruk4y
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Daniel Stow retweeted
Anything @Myrmikan writes is automatically “must read” for me. This is “must MUST read” 👇
AI debt failure will prompt another wave of Fed bailouts: myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Re…
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Bold statement
TRUTH. Dr Anas is a lying fraud.
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Huge
America's electricity generation has been roughly flat since the mid-2000s, while China’s has more than quadrupled.
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We can hope!
Gold is coiling and getting ready for a big move 🚨 🚨 Bollinger Bands are now the tightest since August 2025, right before Gold soared 60% over the next 5 months 🚀 🥳
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Signpost. @LukeGromen Add in Bessent recent comments…..
Over the past few months, China's largest banks have quietly moved to end paper gold trading for individual customers across the country. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China makes it final on July 24. The official line is that this protects ordinary people from a volatile market. I don't buy it. I think we're watching the moment China stops accepting the West's paper price for gold and starts letting real metal set its own. New episode: The Truth About Gold ▶️
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GOLD TELEGRAPH CONVERSATION 16: FRANK GIUSTRA "This is not a normal bull market. We are going through a structural change in the global monetary system." In this discussion, Frank breaks down why he believes we are witnessing the biggest structural shift in the global monetary system in generations, why central banks continue accumulating gold, how de-dollarization is reshaping global finance, and why he believes the coming decade will belong to hard assets. Frank Giustra is the Founder and Chairman of Fiore Group and one of the mining industry's most successful entrepreneurs and investors. Thank you for joining me, Frank. @Frank_Giustra TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) – On Argentina, Hyperinflation & Lessons That Changed His Life (08:24) – Why 1971 Changed the World Forever (15:21) – The Biggest Consequences of Leaving the Gold Standard (22:02) – Are Central Banks Solving Problems or Just Delaying the Inevitable? (25:47) – Why Central Banks Are Buying Gold at Record Levels (29:02) – Does China Secretly Own More Gold Than the United States? (29:47) – Will We Ever See a Fort Knox Audit? (33:35) – China, De-Dollarization & The New Global Order (37:16) – The Petrodollar System Explained (41:28) – BRICS, Gold & The Future of Global Trade (46:32) – Why Gold Still Matters More Than Ever (49:49) – The Rise of Hard Assets (53:31) – Why This Commodity Cycle Is Different (55:14) – Bullish Copper Thesis (01:00:54) – Are We Entering a Copper Supercycle? (01:01:42) – Greatest Achievement (01:04:52) – What Most Investors Still Don't Understand
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Not great.
JUST IN: Gold erases all its gains YTD
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Daniel Stow retweeted
🚨 Anthropic just showed a 27-minute workshop on how to actually do prompts for Claude. Taught by the people who built it. Free. No registration. No paywall. I've seen $300 courses that don't cover what they teach in the first 8 minutes. Watch it and bookmark it now.
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Daniel Stow retweeted
🚨 Bank of Canada just flagged something serious. 🇨🇦 Hedge funds are buying 40-50% of ALL new Canadian government debt. With short-term borrowed money. If those loans get called: 📍 Fire sale on Canadian bonds 📉 📍 Interest rates spike 📈 📍 Government borrowing costs explode 💸 📍 Mortgage rates surge 🏠 📍 Widespread job losses 👷 Canada is planning to borrow to $2.9 Trillion by 2030. Nearly half of every new dollar borrowed is held by leveraged hedge funds. That’s not a foundation. That’s a trap door. 🇨🇦 #CdnPoli #BankOfCanada #MarkCarney #Debt #Bond
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Daniel Stow retweeted
BREAKING: Half of planned US data center builds have been delayed or canceled
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Daniel Stow retweeted
Loving it! Just in time for the Rule Classroom, Copper Bootcamp
Copper miners have been crashing since the start of the war Down from their 2026 highs: Oroco Resource Corp. | $OCO: -52% Capstone Copper | $CS: -47% Ivanhoe Electric | $IE: -44% Ivanhoe Mines | $IVN: -43% Ero Copper | $ERO: -40% Taseko Mines | $TGB: -40% Lundin Mining | $LUN: -35% Southern Copper | $SCCO: -30% Solaris Resources | $SLSR: -30% Teck Resources | $TECK: -27% Freeport-McMoRan | $FCX: -25%
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Seems to make sense!
THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ JUST HANDED YOU THE TRADE OF THE DECADE And most investors are looking in completely the wrong direction. Brent crude closed above $103 on Friday. Up nearly 40% since the strikes began on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down. Insurance companies have canceled war risk coverage. Over 150 ships are stranded. Tanker traffic has collapsed to near zero. The IEA just called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product flows have been choked off. The US is scrambling. The IEA coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest such action ever. Trump ordered emergency insurance for tankers. The Navy was told to begin escort operations. But behind closed doors, Navy officials told tanker executives there's currently NO availability for escorts. And no guarantees there will be. Iran holds the upper hand. And the market knows it. But here's why this matters far beyond the oil price: What we're witnessing is the EMification of America in real time. The US launched strikes in the middle of nuclear negotiations. The executive branch has been attacking central bank independence. Budget deficits are running at levels historically associated with emerging market economies. Erratic policymaking. Massive fiscal deficits. Judicial interference with monetary policy. These are EMERGING MARKET characteristics, and yet the US equity market still carries a premium developed market valuation. That premium is evaporating. Emerging markets returned 33% in 2025. The S&P 500 returned 17%. Almost DOUBLE the outperformance. And 2026 is accelerating the trend. Here's what the consensus is missing: EM macro is BETTER than developed market macro right now. Budget deficits as a percent of GDP? Lower in EM. Debt levels? Lower. Inflation? Lower. Forecasted earnings growth? HIGHER. EM earnings are expected to grow 21% to 29% this year versus 13% to 14% for the U.S. Brazilian equities are trading at roughly 9 times CAPE earnings. About HALF where they traded during the last EM rally in 2018. And the positioning is absurd: US institutional investors have essentially not owned China since Trump 1.0. Most portfolio managers working today weren't even in the business the last time EM led, which was 2001 to 2008. Everyone is out of position. Now layer in commodities: The digital eats the physical. Without copper, silicon, aluminum, and power, there IS no AI. Full stop. And fossil fuels and renewables are rallying AT THE SAME TIME. That tells you the world has a massive power demand problem that isn't going away. Oil above $100. Gold above $4,600. Silver above $85. Copper near all-time highs. The commodity super-cycle is confirming itself in real time. The Iran conflict just poured gasoline on it. Now here's the setup: Emerging market equities, China and Latin America in particular. Commodities across the board. Energy, industrial metals, precious metals. And what to avoid? Long-duration developed market sovereign debt. Overweight positions in the Mag 7, priced for a world where everything goes right and nothing disrupts the AI spending fantasy. Leadership batons in global markets shift in multi-year cycles. The US led from 2009 through 2024. 15 years. Now we're in the early innings of a multi-year rotation into emerging markets and commodities. The flows follow the performance. The performance follows the earnings. And the earnings are now better in EM than in the US. At a fraction of the valuation. With better macro fundamentals. And almost nobody owns it. This is the trade.
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