MBA-Finance. Slightly to right of center but not crazy. Agnostic but not anti-religious. Science, geopolitics, politics, economics, and public health.
Dallas TX
Joined June 2009
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Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
I went back and pulled every single 2%+ down day since 1996 where $SPY was still above its 200 day moving average. Not the last 3. Not the ones that fit my thesis. All 77 of them.
Here's what happened next...
SPY rallied at least 2.9% within the next 22 trading days 66% of the time.
On a normal day above the 200 day? That number is only 49%.
Why 2.9% and why 22 days? Because that's exactly the move from today's close to 779. And 22 trading days from today lands on December 2nd.
The last 10 times it happened.
9/28/21: hit it in 14 days
11/26/21: hit it in 14 days
2/3/22: missed
2/21/23: missed
7/24/24: hit it in 18 days
9/3/24: hit it in 11 days
12/18/24: hit it in 21 days
10/10/25: hit it in 6 days
1/20/26: hit it in 6 days
6/5/26: missed
7 out of 10.
I'm not panicking. This is what a dip in an uptrend looks like.
Same signals. Same target. $SPY 779 by December 2nd.
Again, the same signals that called for 755 by October 30th are calling for 779 by 12/2.
Also worth noting that the $VIX hit a TRIPLE extreme today. Not just an extreme. Not just a double extreme. A triple extreme.
I am fully loaded
I have 14 $QQQ November calls
I have 4 $SPY January calls
— Obnoxious Bull Jonesy
$SPX $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $CL_F #US10Y $TLT
Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
The S&P 500 just gave back 5 MONTHS of gains.
Everyone on here is panicking about the recent selloff on the S&P 500. I am not!
The VIX EXTREME is hitting it's signal once more. As you can see the last three times recently, it has led to a rally back up in the market.
VIX is up 12% today. If it closes 10%+ higher, the VIX Extreme fires. Since 1996 that's happened 374 times with SPY above its 200 day. 3 months later SPY was higher 78% of the time, with a median gain of +4.5%. It held up in both halves of the data too. 77% from 1996 to 2010, 78% from 2011 to now.
THE SAME EXACT SIGNAL (Imbalance) THAT WAS CALLING FOR 755 WITHIN 35 DAYS (which you all did not believe) IS THE SAME SIGNAL CALLING FOR 779 BY 12/2.
We are on trading day number 31 for the 755 imbalance and trading day number 13 with the 779 imbalance
Be fearful when others are greedy.
Be greedy when others are fearful.
I am buying 1 more Jan SPY call and 3 more November QQQ calls here at 755.
NO CLOWN SUIT FOR TJ!!
Thank ya'll for your attention to these matters
— Obnoxious Bull Jonesy
$SPX $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $CL_F #US10Y $TLT
Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
$qqq getting to that 200day here $684-$685
Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
“After more than 85,000 phone calls and nearly 50,000 text messages, a potential problem emerged.
Democrats were far more enthusiastic about taking the poll than Republicans were.”
washingtonpost.com/politics/…
Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
The $QQQ has officially entered a technical correction (-10% peak to trough move).
Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
BREAKING: This person made millions.
Someone bought $13K of Intel $INTC puts yesterday afternoon, hours before earnings. They’re now worth about $1.8 million.
The $68 puts expiring today were 25% out of the money and cost $0.03 each. About 4,400 contracts traded, 90% at the ask. After Intel’s earnings, the puts hit $4.05, roughly a 135x gain (+13,400%).
The Unusual Whales bot tagged the plays, too.
Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
With a day to go in October, 9 of 11 sectors are higher and an incredible 4 up more than 9%, 6 up more than 5%, and 8 up more than 4%.
But when tech is down 3% and comm services down 14%, hard to see much of a rally.
Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
I’m genuinely frustrated that $SNDK is down approximately 25% since I recommended it to you. This is so painful, I know.
I know some of you are sitting on substantial losses, and I don’t take that lightly. When you put your hard-earned money behind an investment idea, you want to see it rewarded, not punished. I wish the timing had been better. But I believe that the market is simply wrong on $SNDK.
A business generating this much free cash flow, with no debt, and still growing at an extraordinary rate, simply shouldn’t remain valued at 8x forward free cash flow. At some point, it will re-rate higher.
I cannot tell you whether that happens two months or six months from now, but I am convinced that $2,500 pre-split is very much on the cards by the end of 2027. I remain completely bullish.
Read more below:
Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
Wall Street analysts NEW price targets on $SNDK after earnings:
- Evercore: $2500 down from $2800
- BofA: $2000 down from $2500
- Melius: $2600 down from $3600
- Goldman: $2000 from $2200
- Wells Fargo: $1,300, down from $1,550
- Susquehanna: $2,720, down from $2,745
- JPMorgan: $2,250, Overweight
- Morgan Stanley: $1,750, Overweight
$SNdK just did it again!!!
Revenue came in at $11.0bn against $10.6bn expected, above the top of its own guide. EPS was $49.51 against $46.22. Operating income was $8.9bn on $11bn of sales. For a freaking memory company, that's absurd.
The number to circle is the data center $4.8bn, up 61% in a single quarter. Two years ago data center was barely part of Sandisk. Now it's over 40% of sales, and it's growing faster than anything else. AI doesn't just need memory to train models. It needs fast storage to serve them to billions of people, and that's flash.
They also guided up $12.4bn of revenue and $56 of EPS, both ahead of the Street. The worry last quarter was that supply was catching up and pricing would fade. It hasn't. Samsung, SK hynix, Microsoft and now Sandisk are all saying the same thing this week.
Add an 8 for 1 split to bring more buyers in. The memory supercycle just getting started. PT $2,700. Overweight.
Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
Let’s be real for those who say selling options for income is a cake walk.
And I mean this as someone who primarily just sells options….
There are days like today where it goes ham to the downside and those sold puts (because 95% of the times that is what is being referred) are now all utterly f*cked.
There I said it.
Someone needed to.
Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
$QQQ almost -4%.
First circuit breaker activates at -7%. For reference.
Not like that will happen today……….
Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
$QQQ This “for fun” analog has been fairly accurately tracking. If it continues to track entering November, we should see a bounce starting today or Monday.
Again, just for fun. Not taking credit.
Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
$spy weekly glance and some thoughts heading into the weekend
Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
Since 2000, there have been 911 days that saw more than 400 advancers for the S&P 500.
Yesterday was the first day ever that was negative.
Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
$SOXX
A little humor and a Leopold laugh goes a long way on a day like today…
Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
$qqq gapped below August range support. Chart follow up as it stayed below.
Reason and analytics in Dallas retweeted
Here’s the Reuters reporter who questioned Trump’s health after he’s done 28 rallies in a row and decided not to go to Kansas because he didn’t think it was needed.
