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Idiot Savant TA trader and market veteran / Macro nerd / economics literate Leftist
Joined January 2022
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Forward Looking (Into the Abyss) retweeted
Non-residential construction payrolls: new high.
Residential payrolls: near cycle low.
Forward Looking (Into the Abyss) retweeted
Bonds across the curve reversing NFP moves because fuck you that's why
Forward Looking (Into the Abyss) retweeted
2/ In other words, @ThematicMarkets, it is NOT the Chinese that have held CNY "artificially low" v. USD.
It is the US that has held USD "artificially HIGH" v. gold.
The Chinese would be happy to let CNY rise v. USD. The US can do it any time they want - all the US must do is let gold rise faster in USD than gold has risen in CNY terms. $10,000 gold = USDCNY 3.0 today. $15,000 gold = USDCNY 2.0 today.
Everyone has been waiting for the CNY to collapse against the USD, but the CNY already collapsed 70% last 3 yrs v. gold (below). If the US wants CNY up v. USD, the US need only to let USD collapse v. gold too.
Forward Looking (Into the Abyss) retweeted
Nobody is "losing the end" of the bond curve. The yield curve is flat, not steep.
Rather, some people are losing the argument for what interest rates should be in this environment and the market is adjusting accordingly.
Nothing stops this train.
Forward Looking (Into the Abyss) retweeted
The problem with @SecScottBessent's analysis is that:
1️⃣Ships are still being attacked and the issue is not how much oil transits the Straits but how much is cross decked to ships in the Gulf of Oman and set sail.
2️⃣There is more than oil that needs to get out of the Persian Gulf, including LNG, LPG, Sulphur, Ammonia, Fertilizer and other products.
3️⃣He is forgetting the 2 billion barrel deficit that did not exit the Strait and has caused the global shortage in afloat and ashore and storage. This cannot be made up while the Strait is shipping out less than pre-War levels.
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Sec. Bessent predicts Iran's economy will collapse "probably within the next 2 weeks."
"They're going to make their final deliveries of oil to China, and then they will have NOTHING."
He went on to argue that Iran is getting DESPERATE for a deal, and that promises to open the strait in 7 days are meaningless, because "the strait is [already] open."
When will world leaders learn to stop underestimating their enemies and making these bold predictions??
Putin boasted that he could "take Kyiv in 2 weeks," now Bessent says Iran will fall in the same amount of time.
My suspicion is that NEITHER will be correct...
Writer: Michael
Forward Looking (Into the Abyss) retweeted
Fed cannot do shit unless the inflation mandate is in SIGNIFICANTLY WORSE shape than the labor mandate and forces them to hammer the economy with rapid hikes that overpower the stimmy effect of higher cash yields. Barring that (which is not on the visible horizon), all they can do is try to appear serious with bullshit little hikes and "we WILL deliver price stability" assertions while fiscal runs the show.
As I see it you have two choices:
- Watch, mouth agape, as yields continue going higher than they've been since 2007, since 2000, since 1997, etc all the while begging fruitlessly for the adults in the room to slash spending bigly against the preferences of 100 million voters.
- Accept that we WILL NOT get our fiscal house in order in an age of populism and a broken social contract, buy gold and BTC, and strap the fuck in because its a bond bear market, baby, and it's just getting started.
Forward Looking (Into the Abyss) retweeted
It's funny how any time a Fed member talks about housing affordability, they almost never mention the impact the Fed buying $1.3T of MBS during covid might have played on subduing borrowing costs and thus trickling through to higher baseline home prices.
This is f**king terrifying
Ask yourself why oil inventories are accelerating downward DESPITE increased flows from the middle east. China reported a 35mil barrel draw last week. That's 7mmb/d!
It's not a magical sudden return of demand. Whatever invisible inventories that were being used to make inferred demand look lower are now gone, China is being forced to increase refining runs, and we are back to seeing the real effect of the global supply deficit.
Forward Looking (Into the Abyss) retweeted
Replying to @fejau_inc
BTC rallies on Bessent YCC, BTC reacts bullishly to Clarity failure + TNX at 5% post Fed hike. DIGITAL GOLD THESIS GETTING VALIDATED.
Forward Looking (Into the Abyss) retweeted
Replying to @LynAldenContact
Forward Looking (Into the Abyss) retweeted
appalachian skyscraper
charles w. bates, national bank of wv, wheeling, wv (1915)
Forward Looking (Into the Abyss) retweeted
Replying to @qthomp
More interesting is BTC/GC_F/CL_F trifecta, each had its local bottom within days of each other at the beginning of July, similarly DXY and TLT had local tops around the same time. The message is clear: sovereign debt crisis looming + traditional flights to safety no longer safe