Associate Professor of Political Science at UMKC. Proud Comparativist. Warning: be prepared to hear about political science. All opinions expressed are my own.
Kansas City, MO
Joined November 2014
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In the last pass, who do voters think is going to win? In our @MaryStegmaier @mlewisbeck forecast in @Center4Politics Crystal Ball, our citizen forecast shows voters more and more convinced of a Democratic victory in both Houses of Congress. centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
Check it out, and check out our piece in the @ps_polisci special issue on Forecasting the Midterms to see changes over time. cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Great summary of the PS Forecasting the Midterms Special Issue. Thanks, @mattgrossmann!
Political science forecasting models expect clear Democratic House control but are mixed on Senate outcomes:
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Wow, this article is so cool- a great way to understand the recent Serbian elections and student protest movments
Our new article with @pelinamus is out! Why do Gen Z movements ally with opposition parties in some autocratizing contexts but not others? We argue it's about parties' threat capacity + the repression they face, comparing Turkey & Serbia.
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…
Interested in using the @ps_polisci special issue "Forecasting the 2026 Midterms" in your class? We have new teaching material posted on APSA Educate. educate.apsanet.org/resource… Thanks to @apsa APSA Educate for getting it posted for us so quickly!
Link to the Special Issue can be found here: cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Interested in adding forecasting to your class assignments? Here's a link to the resources associated with my @JPSE_Editors piece on teaching forecasting
educate.apsanet.org/resource…
Sounds like a fantastic event! It's always a good day to learn more about forecasting. cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Join Verasight co-founder @pete_enns for "Forecasting the 2026 U.S. House Election at the District Level," a virtual lunch and learn hosted by NYAAPOR on Friday, October 23, 12:00 to 1:00 PM Eastern.
Peter will present a district-level forecast of the 2026 midterm elections. The model would have correctly predicted the House majority in each of the last 14 elections. In addition to the forecast, he will discuss the historical accuracy of the model, how polling data inform the predictions, and what the forecast can teach us about campaign dynamics and potential election anomalies. The model builds on Peter’s 2024 presidential election forecast, which correctly predicted the outcome in every state and forecasted Donald Trump’s popular vote within 1 percentage point.
Register here: eventbrite.com/e/forecasting…
So excited to see this out. Thanks to the @pol4casting and all of our amazing reviewers!
Who will win the Midterms? Thrilled to announce the new @ps_polisci Special Issue Forecasting the 2026 US Midterms, edited by @_johnkenny and myself. 17 new articles analyzing expectations for the House, Senate, and Governors' races this November. cambridge.org/gb/universityp…
How can forecasters preserve established models as the data landscape changes? Olivia Quinn, Amanda Brush, and Eric Smith revisit the fundamentals of election forecasting in a post-Gallup environment.
cambridge.org/core/product/3…
Special elections get a lot of attention, but do they help us predict elections? Charles Hunt asks when these contests provide useful signals about congressional elections—and when they don't. cambridge.org/core/product/0…
Are Midterms about Congress or the President? Mohammad Hamza Iftikhar examines leader-centered personalization in the 2026 midterms. Looking at four races, the article asks how presidential leadership may shape election forecasts cambridge.org/core/product/B…