Greatest thing since Nixon took us off the gold standard --- Everything stocks, news, politics, and technology
Joined July 2025
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If you are not a singular point of failure in decision making or you are not risking your own capital — your opinion is irrelevant to me
Once you understand that terminal value and exit multiple drive the far majority of stock price action you start to obsess over a company’s MOAT
She might actually be the worst investor of all time #WOAT
GOAT 🐐
Warren Buffett’s 70-year track record — across just 2 vehicles — as a steward of other people’s capital.
CAGR (net of fees/expenses for LP years):
Buffett (1957 to 2026-09-17): 19.9%
S&P 500: 10.7%
I don’t think anyone else will ever achieve 1) the returns, 2) for the duration, 3) at the scale, 4) with the minimal risk that Buffett produced for other people.
And, for the majority of it, everyone had equal opportunity to participate.
By decade:
Extreme fear but $SPY is 3% from all time highs ?
How do you beat inflation? Invest in companies with pricing power. You raise prices, customers are locked in, revenue and earnings continue to grow.
The same is not true for real estate
The same is not true for bonds
Very basic concepts that the far majority fail to read
Apple $AAPL accepts Samsung’s memory pricing with NAND and DRAM prices approximately 40% higher than just 2 quarters ago…
Memory suppliers are still benefiting from demand that is off the charts while there is a limited supply of DRAM to go around.
Vix calls = cheap hedge
Volatility has rarely been this quiet.
The Volatility Index, $VIX, has closed in the 14 to 17 point range for 25 consecutive trading days, the longest such streak since May 1992.
The only comparable stretch over the last 34 years was in 2025, at 24 sessions.
This comes as $VIX finished every trading day below 17 points in August.
On Thursday, the index closed at 14.3 points, its 3rd-lowest daily close since December.
All while the S&P 500 has traded for 26 consecutive sessions without a decline of at least -1.0%.
The market is unusually calm.
Good visual of where we are today
This is what happens when earnings growth outpaces stock price appreciation like what has been going on for the past 3 years
The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 19.6.
This P/E ratio is below the 5-year average (19.9) but above the 10-year average (19.0). @factset
