Dustin Olson

🚨 NEW EPISODE: Who Wins the 2026 Midterms? A Pollster & Elections Forecaster Compare Notes Join me and Patrick Allocco (@psallocco) of the @ZoosePolitical Index for their 2026 midterm outlook, a closer look at polling and forecasts, and the stories behind Patrick’s career—from campaign computers in the 80s to Michael Jackson and an Angola hostage situation. The episode explores: • The Senate map, candidate quality, and Patrick’s House forecast • Pollster track records, public polling incentives, and AI-assisted analysis • Campaign computing in 1985, Michael Jackson and the Angola hostage story Watch the full episode and follow @PolTradeSecrets for more.

Voters want relief on prices. That’s not a blank check for endless investigations. I joined @NEWSMAX’s Wake Up America in studio alongside former Congressman @JackKingston to discuss what went wrong for Republicans and where rebuilding starts. Republicans lost ground across every part of the coalition they built in 2024. The biggest problem I pointed to: Independents voting much like Democrats. Even polls that got the winner right may have missed who was turning out and by how much. My reading of the exit polls was a protest over prices and the economy. Republicans still have policies with majority support, but they didn’t make a strong enough case for them during the campaign. That’s where Republicans need to start the work of rebuilding over the next two years. Thanks to Jack and the Wake Up America hosts @marc_lotter and @SharlaMcBride and team for the conversation. Watch the full segment, like, follow, and share. More on Political Trade Secrets: politicaltradesecrets.com/po…

A polling miss in Maine may look very different from a polling miss in Alaska. I joined @tiffanymeier_ and the @NTDNews election-night team alongside Denny Salas, @MaddiesHotTake, and @thedebralea to discuss the fight for Congress. The House is more exposed to the national mood. In the Senate, candidate quality and each state’s own dynamics can make a bigger difference. I expect a polling miss, but don’t assume it all goes one way. Fellow pollster Denny Salas and I also compared notes on early turnout—and disagreed about which party some of those numbers favor. Higher turnout in a Republican state can be good for Republicans and geography matters. Thanks to Tiffany, the NTD hosts and team, Denny, Madeline, and Deborah for the conversation. Watch the full segment, like, follow, and share. More on Political Trade Secrets: politicaltradesecrets.com/po…

About to kick off @NTDNews Election Night coverage with fellow guest @thedebralea and host @tiffanymeier_ Join us for the conversation! We're live until 10 PM ET. Tune in ntd.com/tv

I joined @BiancaDLGarza on @NEWSMAX’s Newswire alongside @ksorbs to discuss Alaska’s two Dan Sullivans and what the polls may be missing on Election Day. Our research suggests very few voters will confuse the two candidates. But in a close election and with voters in a hurry while completing their ballots, a few votes can make a difference. On the broader polling picture, Republicans are less responsive to pollsters and you have to go the extra mile to find those Republicans and get the sample right. Media and university sponsored polls are motivated to generate headlines at the cheapest cost possible instead of making sure they talk to those hard-to-reach voters. That’s why the results could be different than what we’ve been hearing from the mainstream press. Thanks to Bianca, Kevin, and the Newswire team for the conversation. Watch the full segment, like, follow, and share. More on Political Trade Secrets: politicaltradesecrets.com/po…

One Election Day guarantee: there will be a polling miss. I’m not saying it goes in the same direction in every state. I joined the team in-studio on @NEWSMAX’s First Edition, alongside Doug Blair, to discuss what the polls may be missing, why Haley Stevens’s endorsement may have changed the Michigan US Senate race, and why I favor Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska. There’s a difference between research people use to make decisions and “drive-by media polls” used to write headlines. Full disclosure: I put money into the prediction markets on the Alaska race. Thanks to Doug,@Glasgow_Jon, @EmmaRechenberg and the First Edition team for the conversation. Catch me on @NEWSMAX's Newswire today at 2:30pm ET—tune in for this Election Day analysis! Watch, like, follow, and share. More on Political Trade Secrets: politicaltradesecrets.com/po…

On this segment of National Report on @NEWSMAX, I was in-studio to discuss different ballot measures across the country including AI Data Centers and the Creation of a Public Bank in San Francisco. Right now, the focus in many locations is the NIMBY aspect of Data Centers with little focus on the National Security implications. San Francisco voters are considering the creation of a publicly owned bank to fund projects including "climate resilience". If you like government-run grocery stores, you'll love government-owned banks. Thanks to hosts @marc_lotter and @E_D_Hill and my fellow guest Marc LoPresti. Catch more Election Day analysis from me until Noon today on NEWSMAX!

A newspaper reporter was told to look at the graph of all the prediction market price changes in a race she was covering. When I asked what had moved them, she recognized the news behind the price changes. She’d reported it herself. Join Polling Club at PollingClub.com and follow @PolTradeSecrets on X or wherever you get your podcasts.

I ask about the career behind the @ZoosePolitical Index. Patrick Allocco (@psallocco) explains the translation-business idea that came first and how advertising veteran Tom Messner helped give the company its unusual name. > Find the full episode here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: youtu.be/Y5KRZK8mS7Q

If you want to understand what the real legal situation is with Peltola’s dirty pool “Decoy Dan” in Alaska, watch this. I joined @RickLeventhal on @NEWSMAX’s The Leventhal Report, following our friend and colleague Chris Murray of First & Fourteenth, one of the best election lawyers in the business, who knows this case firsthand from his work in Alaska. Murray breaks down the potential election-interference issues, why blocking certification would be legally difficult, and why he believes the candidate’s affidavit raises serious questions. Stay through the end. After Murray’s legal analysis, Rick and I get into the politics: the Senate map, Republican turnout in places like Ohio and Iowa, Democratic coalition problems in Michigan, and how much power the DSA could wield if Democrats narrowly take the House. Thanks to Rick, Chris, and NEWSMAX for a great conversation.

Election interference.

Hakeem Jeffries may get a title. But the DSA could be his boss. I joined anchor @VeronicaDudo on @EWTNNewsNightly to discuss President Trump’s closing rallies and what the latest House ratings actually mean. Right now it looks like the socialist and extreme-progressive bloc will be larger than the margin of any House majority Democrats could hope to get, giving it enormous leverage over Speaker Jeffries. On the GOP side, as the old saying goes in politics, Trump’s hunting where the ducks are, and it is adding turnout energy in places like Iowa and Kansas that have critical Senate and House races. Thanks to Veronica and the EWTN News Nightly team for the conversation.

📺 LIVE ELECTION DAY COVERAGE Tuesday, America votes. I’ll be live throughout Election Day and the day after to break down turnout, crossover voters, control of Congress, what the results actually mean, and of course, the inevitable polling misses... Tuesday, November 3, Election Day • 8:30 AM ET: First Edition | NEWSMAX2 • 9 AM–Noon ET: National Report | NEWSMAX • 4:45 PM ET: Made in America | News24 Australia • 6–10 PM ET: The Nation Decides 2026 | NTD/The Epoch Times Wednesday, November 4, Post-Election • 8–9 AM ET: First Edition | NEWSMAX2 • 2–4 PM ET: American Agenda | NEWSMAX Ways to watch live: NEWSMAX: Watch on Cable or NEWSMAX+ newsmaxplus.com NTD: ntd.com/tv Newsmax2: youtube.com/watch?v=MXosVElB… News24 Australia: youtube.com/watch?v=Ereua4kb… Follow along here for clips, updates, and analysis throughout Election Day and beyond. Thanks to @NEWSMAX, @NTDNews , and @News24Aust for having me.

Big odds movement. Thin trading? @sean_bartley and @rexstjohn explain why the activity behind an election price matters when interpreting the move. Join Polling Club at PollingClub.com and follow @PolTradeSecrets wherever you get your podcasts.

Asked about Roger Marshall’s race, I reach for a Moneyball comparison: the numbers matter, but so does what the scouts see. I explain why campaign preparation can be a warning sign that a forecast alone misses. > Find the full episode here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: youtu.be/Y5KRZK8mS7Q

The polls showed the crack. Haley Stevens put her name and face on it. I joined hosts @SharlaMcBride and @marc_lotter on @NEWSMAX’s Wake Up America, alongside @JHoganGidley, to discuss the final midterm stretch. Only 45% of the Jewish Democrats we surveyed said they were definitely voting for Abdul El-Sayed. Stevens’s endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers gives conflicted Democrats permission to say: “I’m not going along with this.” In a difficult year for Republicans, Democrats are now getting the damaging late-cycle stories. Thanks to Sharla, Marc, Hogan, and the Wake Up America team for the conversation.