@ECrivellaroi
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Building https://nitter.cf/t.co/3P7Ygw7hDR. Wide thinker addicted to first principles. Deliberate deoptimizer. Moderate optimist.
Joined June 2012
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AI Intensity Leads to MORE Hiring, Especially For SWEs
@a16z State of Markets (09/26)
Edoardo Crivellaro retweeted
As you become an adult, you realize that things around you weren't just always there; people made them happen. But only recently have I started to internalize how much tenacity *everything* requires. That hotel, that park, that railway. The world is a museum of passion projects.
Where does money invested into the AI buildout actually go?
For every $100 flowing into the supply chain:
- $50 to chips
- $20 to power
- $15 to networking
- $15 to cooling, buildings, and land
More charts in State of Markets II: a16z.news/p/state-of-markets…
Introducing our State of Markets pt 2, along with a companion podcast where we unpack the data and discuss what comes next.
Tech is the everything cycle.
Supply: putting the buildout in context, just passed railroads as % of GDP. The wisdom of Elon is real: the factory (or the datacenter!) is the product.
Demand: diffusion is so, so early. Median AI vendor spending in the top 1% of companies is 8x that of the top 10%. Only about 30% of S&P 500 companies report a quantified AI impact, which means there’s a substantial opportunity in connecting models to a company's data and workflows. Diffusion into companies is one of the main themes of the next 5 years.
We’re entering the agent work period. Only a few million users today, but applicable to billions of internet users with massive surplus created. META/GOOG monetize US users at $200+ per year today. Agent opportunity is much higher.
Mega-trends the next 5 years: Consumer agents, Robotics, Autonomy, AI x bio, Personal health, Diffusion into enterprise, New era of American Dynamism.
Much more in our SoM report here - a16z.news/p/state-of-markets…
@a16z @sarahdingwang @aleximm @santiago__rdz
No, AI is not similar to the Manhattan Project ft.com/content/7b8336a1-6ac4… via @ft
Edoardo Crivellaro retweeted
Let's talk about how to shop for flannel shirts.
When people shop for clothes, they are typically looking for value for the price. This means they look for markers of quality (e.g., brand name, where the garment was made, fiber composition, and such). This is all very reasonable.
However, you should take it one step deeper: think about how to develop taste. When you choose a restaurant for dinner, you don't just think about the quality of the ingredients. You think about what satisfies your palate.
The same is true for clothes.
For instance, Vuori makes contemporary-styled clothing. The flannel pictured here (slide one) is marketed as having four-way stretch and moisture-wicking properties. It's made from 63% polyester, 34% viscose, and 3% elastane. The fabric is midweight. It's the kind of thing you wear with slim chinos and minimalist sneakers.
In slide two, we see a Polo Ralph Lauren flannel. This is made from pure cotton and features what's known as "cat-eye buttons" (called so because they resemble a cat's pupil). Notice that the fabric is heavier and you can almost make out the individual yarns. That's because the designers drew inspiration from mid-century flannels worn by American laborers. This is the kind of thing you wear with jeans, trucker jackets, and boots, not slim chinos and minimalist sneakers.
In slide three, we see an Iron Heart Ultra Heavy Flannel. This is made from a 12oz fabric woven from Aspero cotton grown at the foothills of the Andes Mountains. Remember, a midweight flannel is made from a fabric that's maybe 5oz — so this is like wearing two flannel shirts at the same time, plus a little more. The interior is double-brushed for a kitten-like softness. This is not really a shirt, but a jacket, which is why it retails for $380. You will not find a heavier flannel on the market (also, size up).
I don't believe in telling people that they should wear this, but not that. I think everything starts with helping the person look inwards. How do you want to dress? What aesthetic inspires you? What is your identity, lifestyle, values, etc.? This way, you develop your own taste and improve your relationship with the objects you buy. It doesn't matter if I prefer the Ralph Lauren flannel over the Vuori because we are different people and therefore have different identities and values.
I hope to give people a framework for understanding clothes (social language, design culture, craftsmanship, etc.). Then send them off to figure out what works for them. I also try give people tips on how to shop for a budget. My friend Zach (IG aimeleondad) gives some good tips on finding vintage shirts on eBay in the fourth and final slide.
Online today, you will find lots of people telling you to buy this or that. These people are often being paid by brands to do so. That approach isn't very useful because it negates the wearer's personality. IMO, a better approach is to help people develop their own taste so they can express themselves better through clothes and build stronger relationships with what they buy.
I personally don't like thin fabrics, stretch fabrics, or business casual. I prefer older styles, classic tailoring, heritage workwear, vintage clothes, and such. But that's my personal preference and they may not be yours. I would rather you purchase something you really love than mindlessly adopt my taste, only to realize later that's not you.
Replying to @dieworkwear
I like your recent stuff here letting it all out. Keep it up. Burn that compute.
My wife just asked me about Vuori vs faherty flannels. Do you have an opinion or is this not your jam?
If someone had told us in the late 1990s that the US would one day become by far the world’s largest oil producer, everyone would have laughed.
And yet, things can change. Nothing is inevitable or linear. The world we take for granted today can look completely different tomorrow
The constant decel messaging in Europe is insufferable as an adult, but its effect on kids is worse. As a parent, it's your obligation to counterprogram this nonsense. Show them robots, rockets, and wonders of AI. Show them cathedrals and moon landings. Instill hope in progress.
Edoardo Crivellaro retweeted
Edoardo gets it. Welcome aboard! 🙏
There are things that will survive even in the age of AGI/ASI. Things that have to do with something deeply, unmistakably human.
I subscribed to HEY primarily because of the love, passion, and care that @jasonfried, @dhh and @37signals put into what they do.
There are things that will survive even in the age of AGI/ASI. Things that have to do with something deeply, unmistakably human.
I subscribed to HEY primarily because of the love, passion, and care that @jasonfried, @dhh and @37signals put into what they do.
As an Italian working in tech, I’ve always had a deep appreciation for craftsmanship.
HEY feels like a daily testament to it: a product made with taste and conviction. And a product with a SOUL.
Let's goo @jasonfried @dhh @37signals
Edoardo Crivellaro retweeted
How are prices determined? While I slept, Claude made me "History of economic thought since Aristotle." I asked it to use my favourite textbook (Blaug, Economic Theory in retrospect). The result will astonish of you. Even top economists here will learn something, I promise.
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Edoardo Crivellaro retweeted
57% of top AI talent originate from China, up from 46% in 2022.
13% of top AI talent originate from the US, down from 20% in 2022.
China’s lead as a source of top AI talent has widened since 2022.
But, there’s another gap worth looking at…
Edoardo Crivellaro retweeted
This is true and is a process that has been in place for the last few million years, since man first used a tool.
Yet man has managed to find and rediscover sources of meaning again and again. Turns out, much meaning can be found along the long, long ride to the asymptotic limit.
This time will be no different.
Edoardo Crivellaro retweeted
Prewar movements were often designed to fit in the rectangular cases that were in fashion then. The war made round watches fashionable (because all military watches were round). So inside 1940s watches you sometimes find this:
Patrick Collison's advice to people in their 20s: find where the highest standards are, and go experience them firsthand.
"When I talk to people in other domains, this is so frequently the thing that I hear from them."
"That when they worked with X person or Y organization or in Z environment, they learned what great actually is, and that just permanently changed their sense for what their own standard for their work ought to be."
"Maybe one version of what people in their twenties should do is... figure out, where can you learn the highest standards? Where are the highest standards embodied, and where can you go and experience that firsthand?"
@patrickc w/ @dwarkesh_sp (Feb 2024)