Election nerd. @VoteHub contributor and creator of the Election Simulator → https://nitter.cf/t.co/z1MuNRKwEY. Views my own.
Washington, DC
Joined October 2014
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Which Texas county should you watch when polls close Tuesday?
Denton County, just north of Dallas-Fort Worth. It's usually the first county to report, and its first early-vote drop is typically 70–85% of its total vote.
Home to the University of North Texas, it's a fast-growing, highly college-educated suburban county that James Talarico has to win if he wants to carry Texas.
When I was an AP election stringer in Denton County in 2022, the first vote drop told me almost immediately where the state was headed.
The county had trended blue for a decade: Romney won it by 32 in 2012, Trump by 20 in 2016, and Trump by just 8 in 2020. In 2024, the first votes showed Trump up by double digits, reversing that trend.
Talarico has to gain big here if he wants to win.
Election Enjoyer retweeted
It's been 32 years since Democrats won a statewide race in Texas. So what would a win for them on Tuesday even look like?
The answer could vary depending on candidates' particular strengths and weaknesses. But as a general rule of thumb, they'll want to hit these marks:
Why don’t Presidential campaigns do these anymore?
18 YEARS AGO TONIGHT --
The Barack Obama campaign ran a 30-minute infomercial on national TV
The ad aired across seven nets (CBS, NBC, FOX, Univision, MSNBC, BET, TV One) and was seen by 33.55 million viewers
"It's just a stunning number," said CBS chairman Leslie Moonves
The ad cost roughly $5 million to air
Election Enjoyer retweeted
Nevada firewall grows to 🔵 D+ 34,200 tonight
On the same day in 2024 GOP had a 🔴 R+45,000 lead
570,190 have voted, more than half of the Nevada overall vote has likely been cast as we are at 58% of final 2018 turnout and 56% of final 2022 turnout
Election Enjoyer retweeted
What did I say!
CNN: Election Day storm could impact voter turnout in key midterm states
We’ll know more by this weekend, but for now, it’s looking like Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio and Texas might have to contend with wet conditions.
cnn.com/2026/10/28/weather/e…
Election Enjoyer retweeted
Michigan Election Night Preview (8pm, 9pm polls close)
Operations
Michigan counts votes very slowly. Fewer than half of all votes may be reported by midnight, and a substantial number may still be outstanding at 3 a.m. Detroit often does not finish their Election Night reporting until around 9 a.m., and that doesn't even include ballots counted after Election Night in the trail period. Absentee ballots and votes from more Democratic-leaning areas often are counted last, making results in the early morning look more Republican than the final outcome.
It’s crucial to keep this Republican mirage in mind during the early morning hours. Even if El-Sayed trails by 2–3 points at 3 a.m., he could still be favored to win, depending on where the remaining votes are coming from. If they are concentrated in areas that historically report after 3 a.m. as we expect, he would be favored to make up about 3 points. Democratic areas in Wayne, Ingham, Saginaw, Kalamazoo, and Washtenaw counties, along with Flint, often report last. Even at 6 a.m., votes from Detroit and other late-reporting areas could still be outstanding and help El-Sayed gain ground.
Key races
Michigan Senate: Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R). Michigan was Trump+1.4 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Democratic, favoring El-Sayed to win by 3.3 points. El-Sayed, a progressive, defeated Haley Stevens in a contentious primary. Rogers, a former representative, narrowly lost to Elissa Slotkin in 2024, even as Trump won the state.
Michigan Governor: Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R). Michigan was Trump+1.4 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Likely Democratic, favoring Benson to win by 8.6 points. Benson is favored to succeed Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, as Democrats expect the blue environment to help them hang on to the governor’s mansion in a state Trump won. James, a current representative, lost two statewide races in 2018 and 2020 and is hoping for a better result on his third try.
MI-04: Bill Huizenga (R) faces Sean McCann (D). The district was Trump+5.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Republican, favoring Huizenga to win by 2.2 points. Huizenga has historically been a strong candidate, running more than 6 points ahead of Trump in 2024. However, he faces a challenge in this western Michigan district, which includes Kalamazoo and is likely to vote for Benson at the top of the ticket. He will likely need to outrun James to keep his seat.
MI-07: William Lawrence (D) faces Tom Barrett (R). The district was Trump+1.3 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Democratic, favoring Lawrence to win by 2 points. In this district centered on Lansing and the surrounding area, Republican incumbent Tom Barrett is hoping to hold on even as Benson is heavily favored to win it at the top of the ticket. He is hoping that progressive insurgent William Lawrence will prove weak electorally, giving him an opening to win over swing voters. Lawrence, and national progressives, are hoping that a resounding victory in the seat will prove progressives can flip seats from red to blue and run close to the top of the ballot while doing it.
MI-10: Christina Hines (D) faces Mike Bouchard Jr. (R). The district was Trump+6.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Democratic, favoring Hines to win by 2.8 points. Hines is hoping to flip this open seat centered on Macomb County, a working-class suburban area outside Detroit. Our forecast currently has both Benson and Rogers winning the district, meaning the House race may come down to candidate quality.
When was the last time corruption was the #1 issue heading into a midterm? 2006, when Republicans lost the House and Senate.
Now it's #1 again, and voters trust Democrats more on it by double digits.
That doesn't bode well for Republicans next week.
Election Enjoyer retweeted
The problem for Republicans has worsened as early voting continues. Older, high-propensity Republicans are finally turning out this week. But younger Republicans remain largely absent, and the shift gap (where 18-44 voters shift more toward Dems than 45+ voters) keeps widening.
Election Enjoyer retweeted
NEWS — A hacker is attempting to breach the Federal Election Commission's systems, and the agency had to "temporarily shut down" its web-facing services, per an email seen by Reuters.
The FEC regulates campaign finance and plays no role in running elections or counting votes.
Who do you think is going to win Nevada's Governor's race?
electionenjoyer.com/nevada/g…
This election definitely has the vibe that it’s going to give us some iconic moments and reactions. I can’t believe we’re already so close to the end.
Election Enjoyer retweeted
Excited to announce that @lxeagle17, @Thorongil16, @admcrlsn, and I will host three X Spaces ahead of next Tuesday’s midterm elections to discuss polling, forecasts, early voting, and more. We’ll also take your questions along the way.
We’ll stay flexible on topics, but here’s the rough plan:
Tuesday, October 27 | 8:30–10 p.m.
We’ll break down the state of play in the House and Senate, national polling, demographic trends, and the persuasion and turnout dynamics we’re watching.
Friday, October 30 | 8:30–10 p.m.
With early voting nearly complete across most key states, we’ll discuss what we’ve learned, including a close look at Texas with @Thorongil16. We’ll also talk about what the emerging electorate means for whom candidates need to persuade to win.
Monday, November 2 | 7:30 p.m. – ???
Our final thoughts, a breakdown of key races, and what to watch as results come in Tuesday night. We’ll help you get ready to follow election night like a pro.
