Election Enjoyer

Michigan Election Night Preview (8pm, 9pm polls close) Operations Michigan counts votes very slowly. Fewer than half of all votes may be reported by midnight, and a substantial number may still be outstanding at 3 a.m. Detroit often does not finish their Election Night reporting until around 9 a.m., and that doesn't even include ballots counted after Election Night in the trail period. Absentee ballots and votes from more Democratic-leaning areas often are counted last, making results in the early morning look more Republican than the final outcome. It’s crucial to keep this Republican mirage in mind during the early morning hours. Even if El-Sayed trails by 2–3 points at 3 a.m., he could still be favored to win, depending on where the remaining votes are coming from. If they are concentrated in areas that historically report after 3 a.m. as we expect, he would be favored to make up about 3 points. Democratic areas in Wayne, Ingham, Saginaw, Kalamazoo, and Washtenaw counties, along with Flint, often report last. Even at 6 a.m., votes from Detroit and other late-reporting areas could still be outstanding and help El-Sayed gain ground. Key races Michigan Senate: Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R). Michigan was Trump+1.4 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Democratic, favoring El-Sayed to win by 3.3 points. El-Sayed, a progressive, defeated Haley Stevens in a contentious primary. Rogers, a former representative, narrowly lost to Elissa Slotkin in 2024, even as Trump won the state. Michigan Governor: Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R). Michigan was Trump+1.4 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Likely Democratic, favoring Benson to win by 8.6 points. Benson is favored to succeed Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, as Democrats expect the blue environment to help them hang on to the governor’s mansion in a state Trump won. James, a current representative, lost two statewide races in 2018 and 2020 and is hoping for a better result on his third try. MI-04: Bill Huizenga (R) faces Sean McCann (D). The district was Trump+5.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Republican, favoring Huizenga to win by 2.2 points. Huizenga has historically been a strong candidate, running more than 6 points ahead of Trump in 2024. However, he faces a challenge in this western Michigan district, which includes Kalamazoo and is likely to vote for Benson at the top of the ticket. He will likely need to outrun James to keep his seat. MI-07: William Lawrence (D) faces Tom Barrett (R). The district was Trump+1.3 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Democratic, favoring Lawrence to win by 2 points. In this district centered on Lansing and the surrounding area, Republican incumbent Tom Barrett is hoping to hold on even as Benson is heavily favored to win it at the top of the ticket. He is hoping that progressive insurgent William Lawrence will prove weak electorally, giving him an opening to win over swing voters. Lawrence, and national progressives, are hoping that a resounding victory in the seat will prove progressives can flip seats from red to blue and run close to the top of the ballot while doing it. MI-10: Christina Hines (D) faces Mike Bouchard Jr. (R). The district was Trump+6.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Democratic, favoring Hines to win by 2.8 points. Hines is hoping to flip this open seat centered on Macomb County, a working-class suburban area outside Detroit. Our forecast currently has both Benson and Rogers winning the district, meaning the House race may come down to candidate quality.

The problem for Republicans has worsened as early voting continues. Older, high-propensity Republicans are finally turning out this week. But younger Republicans remain largely absent, and the shift gap (where 18-44 voters shift more toward Dems than 45+ voters) keeps widening.

Excited to announce that @lxeagle17, @Thorongil16, @admcrlsn, and I will host three X Spaces ahead of next Tuesday’s midterm elections to discuss polling, forecasts, early voting, and more. We’ll also take your questions along the way. We’ll stay flexible on topics, but here’s the rough plan: Tuesday, October 27 | 8:30–10 p.m. We’ll break down the state of play in the House and Senate, national polling, demographic trends, and the persuasion and turnout dynamics we’re watching. Friday, October 30 | 8:30–10 p.m. With early voting nearly complete across most key states, we’ll discuss what we’ve learned, including a close look at Texas with @Thorongil16. We’ll also talk about what the emerging electorate means for whom candidates need to persuade to win. Monday, November 2 | 7:30 p.m. – ??? Our final thoughts, a breakdown of key races, and what to watch as results come in Tuesday night. We’ll help you get ready to follow election night like a pro.

North Carolina Early Voting, Day 11 — October 25 🔵 Democratic: 18,033 (46.8%) 🔴 Republican: 5,523 (14.3%) ⚪ Unaffiliated: 14,822 (38.5%) New ballots: 38,508 Daily Democratic registration margin: D+32.5 Cumulative ballots cast: 1,583,181 Cumulative Democratic margin: D+18.0

Florida IP Early Voting | Day 7 🔴 Republicans: 600,295 🔵 Democrats: 505,545 ⚪ Other/NPA: 275,705 Cumulative GOP Margin 2024: R+25.2 2026: R+6.9 Shift Toward Democrats vs. 2024 Day 1: D+24.4 Day 2: D+23.8 Day 3: D+22.4 Day 4: D+20.4 Day 5: D+19.0 Day 6: D+18.5 Day 7: D+18.4