Political Scientist | PostDoc @PRIF_org & @goetheuni Tweets on DataScience, Econometrics and African Politics
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Joined July 2014
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New article: “The Language of Responsibility in the United Nations Security Council, 1946–2020” with @felixhaass & @holger_niemann in @ISQ_Jrnl
Article: doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae025
Preprint: felixhaass.de/www/manuscript…
Data/Code: t.ly/ChKOG
Felix Bethke retweeted
Riots in the '60s really did screw up neighborhoods permanently. Building on astonishing data, this paper shows that large negative shocks are sufficient to tip cities into new equilibriums altogether, while small shocks can be recovered from. 1/
Felix Bethke retweeted
Not sure which difference-in-differences estimator fits your study?
Clément de Chaisemartin's team made a free guide that asks a few questions and points you to the right methods.
Tool: credible-answers.github.io/W…
Subscribe: assistweekly.org
Felix Bethke retweeted
🇷🇺🪖 NEW: "NATO military capabilities and the Russian threat: A difference-in-differences analysis of the 2014 Russian invasion" from Ryan Van Wie & Jordan Becker.
👉 Open access - read here: cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Felix Bethke retweeted
Why do normal people care about international law? ⚖️
📜 Ben Valentino and I have a paper out in International Studies Quarterly in which try to provide an answer.
Felix Bethke retweeted
My piece "The Beer Wars" is out in @thebafflermag.
It's about the war in Congo, Dutch independence, and everything in between.
1/3
thebaffler.com/salvos/the-be…
Felix Bethke retweeted
Happy 25th Birthday Wayback Machine!
On October 24, 2001, The Internet Archive organization launched a free digital archive of websites for the general public called the Wayback Machine.
The oldest pages stored in the archive date back to 1996.
ALT Internet Archive website in 2001
Felix Bethke retweeted
🗓️ 𝐃𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐨𝐫 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐝𝐨 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐞𝐲 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬?
On 12/3, I'm hosting a free, 1 hr. online seminar called, "Doing Better Survey Experiments" from 1pm - 2pm (ET). Please help spread the word if you can! 🙏
instats.org/seminar/doing-be…
Felix Bethke retweeted
Hey there, political scientists and economists. This is a trap.
Political scientists and economists: we're looking for researchers with deep expertise to come work with us for a unique 4-month fellowship at @AnthropicAI. You'll work closely with us to evaluate, improve, and apply Claude's capabilities in your field. It's going to be extremely fun and interesting work, and definitely worth taking a short leave from your university for if you need to!
More info here:
job-boards.greenhouse.io/ant…
Felix Bethke retweeted
Many of these tech people live in a bubble:
They believe you're constantly travelling and need an agent to book your flight.
That you want an agent to book your vacation. But they miss that choosing a location or where you stay is an emotional decision. And its also a little bit of fun as you can have anticipation.
Oh and don't forget the VCs telling you to create personal podcasts for your commute in the morning to work with everything thats going on your family's life. I mean why should you just talk to them?
AI is usefull. No doubt. But its not as usefull for everyday stuff as they want to make it. But their huge investstments force them to hope that every person will have $100/month subscription...
🇺🇸 Zuckerberg says that in 5 years you will have a personal AI that knows your life and does the work for you.
"Everyone is going to have an agent that really intimately understands your goals and everything around you and can help you get stuff done."
He means one assistant on money, health, the house, the calendar, running in the background all day.
Meta wants that agent sitting inside the apps people already live in, so it becomes the way you get through a normal day.
Writer: Lucas
Felix Bethke retweeted
Pangram doesn't really test "is this AI-written?" It's more like "is this AI-written in a really sloppy way?"
I get human-written on most of my AI-written texts (to which I've given feedback).
Felix Bethke retweeted
Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict is back. But the battle lines have changed. I appeared on DW News
youtube.com/watch?v=zLd_8YFs…
Felix Bethke retweeted
New version of my LLM benchmark for social / political science tasks. I posted about this before, but this is the persistent version. I'll try to update this from time to time. I also fixed some issues with the tasks. It's now 33 tasks with 3,300 items, coded by 31 models.
The strongest model overall is Claude Opus 5 (haven't run 5.5 or Fable yet). Open-weight models rank lower than in my initial release in May: the best open model was 3rd of 10 then and is 8th of 31 now, with all seven stronger models being APIs. The gap between the best API and the best open model almost doubled in terms of F1.
I only tested models that run on the hardware available to me (one 96 GB RTX 6000), so there are stronger open models I can't test. Those models are presumably also not practical for the modal social science researcher.
hannohilbig.com/llm-benchmar…
Felix Bethke retweeted
I recently received a paper on the Ottoman Elections of 1918 at Explorations . . . but it turns out there were no such elections!
It turns out that the paper was an elaborate fraud. The author rewrote an excellent JCE paper on the industrialization and the Russian Revolution. They put it through AI to rewrite the text but they kept everything else the same. So there are regressions with "distance to petrograd" and "distance to Moscow" in them.
The maps they produce have the geo-coordinates of Russia, not the Ottoman Empire.
More on this ridiculous paper and the new age of academic fraud at open.substack.com/pub/markko…
Felix Bethke retweeted
ついに来た、映像データを使った因果推論。
arxiv.org/abs/2607.06126
