Medicore Class B Chess Player, OK Bowler, Defender of the Conservative Cause, but prefer my music Progressive.
United States
Joined January 2016
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If @RonDeSantis is smart he'll rid his staff of dead weight moochers like yourself, @AlexLanfran, @JeremyRedfernFL, etc. An R+11 state barely getting over the finish line b/c you guys put personal gain above the needs of Floridians & had to destroy the reputation (without proof) of the sitting Lt. Gov & his wife. It's pretty obvious now why Ron's Presidential Campaign in 2024 was a colossal failure. Had A3 not been on the ballot last night, FL would have gone the way of TX. The State House majorities got nuked.
Florida is clearly purple again and barely tilted red by the skin of it's teeth. An avowed Socialist came within a couple points of winning a US Senate seat b/c many people decided not to participate in this year's ritual to choose between a Giant Douche (Jolly) & a Turd Sandwich (Donalds). And thanks to you, we now have to deal with the antisemitic Fishback groyper assholes who feel emboldened after Trump cult's shellacking last night, believing that they can somehow come in and fill that power vacuum on the right.
Now that this race is over I hope the people you slandered take the gloves off & put out the full story. If Ron wants to have a shot at 2028 (if one still exists), he's also going to have to provide accountability for the bullshit actions his staff took during the Gubernatorial Primary & how doxing/harassing private citizens became standard procedure.
Lastly, do everyone else a favor, and f*ck off back to Malibu or whatever Eastern European hellhole you're headed to next. Haven't you people done enough damage?
@RationalPurview @MrsCroaky @MadMaxMallorie @GreenspansWager @LivemusicCJ @BrianHJacobson @Danielstilwell @mheinz16 @MTPerry_Powell @EllenFL214 @KateW1970 @jhaskinscabrera @Mark_McEathron @sarahadams
Despite the blue tsunami that swept over our country last night, I am proud that Florida remained RED and passed property tax relief. It wouldn't have been possible without Governor @RonDeSantis these past 8 years. He led the charge on election integrity reforms to secure our votes and proved through his actions that conservative leadership delivers results.
DeSantis built up a solid red wall in our formerly purple state, and he appointed conservative leaders like @JamesUthmeierFL , @GovGoneWild , and @AshleyMoodyFL who last night WON all their statewide races in an extremely challenging year for the GOP. Now it's up to all of us to follow in his footsteps and secure the future of Florida as a bastion of sanity.
Yeah, it would have been nice for @RonDeSantis to preach this during the Primary. Byron isn't going to break the "hive mind". He's going to do whatever Trump & the megadonors tell him. And Ron just sat by and let them do it w/o fighting back. So him getting balls now b/c of 2028 is ingenuous.
The Colom ads are brilliant. If you're gonna bombard TV airwaves with Political Ads at least make them interesting like this.
Now that @ByronDonalds has been successfully drug across the finish line by @RonDeSantis we will need to be on guard against the propping up of Big Weed & Data Centers as the Megadonors will demand quick ROI for their funding. So here's the song "Don't Mess with My Florida"
@RationalPurview @LivemusicCJ @GreenspansWager @BrianHJacobson @KateW1970 @EllenFL214 @Danielstilwell @mheinz16 @Real_miss_Jodie @TheyCallMeNans @MTPerry_Powell @KickboxerEsq
This grifting moron learned nothing. He's thinks he's got a 1-up on the vile groypers but they're all in the same grifting class of Trump bootlickers.
I want to thank President Trump for all he did to try to win the mid-terms. His efforts were Herculean. And an additional thanks for all he does every day for our country and each of us. In politics, there will always be setbacks. Sometimes those setbacks are big. Barack Obama and Bill Clinton suffered horrible mid-term loses. It didn't stop them and God knows nothing will stop you. God bless!
I think @DecisionDeskHQ missed a call
Congrats to @RonDeSantis for helping get @ByronDonalds barely across the finish line. I was worried I'd have to rewrite Chapter 14.
Now, when do we get YOUR Tell-All book about why you let your staff smear your sitting LG & dox normal citizens?
This one's for Benny.
Are you sitting down?
Republicans are currently showing signs of PRESIDENTIAL-LEVEL midterms turnout already on Election Day
Scott Presler reveals data from across the country showing incredible early results.
Republicans are set to flip Broward county in Florida from blue to red.
Montgomery County, Texas is BEATING Presidential level turnout this morning.
Lines are out the door at the polls in Wisconsin.
Democrats in Pennsylvania are leaving some 120,000 ballots on the table.
Republicans are showing up on Election Day.
Keep Voting! @ScottPresler
How am I doing?
Since both candidates suck, I will give my honest opinion about what will happen in the FL Gov Race tomorrow.
I see a +/- 1 point race and very possibly a recount (God Help Us!)
*IF* The Election Day makeup is GOP about 1,207,000 R's tomorrow, the D's about 638,000, and about 500,000 NPAs you'd get an R+9 Electorate. For Jolly to win in R+9 he needs roughly 6 in 10 NPA's & approximately 7-8% GOP Crossover while losing no more than 5% D to R crossover. Based on polls, that is definitely possible. He could actually win with as little as 6% crossover if he ran NPA's 64-35. While it's probable he's leading NPA's by healthy margin that's a little aggressive but not out of the realm of possibilities. I think 60-39 is where everyone is herding.
The ED Electorate I gave above equates to about R+25. I am more comfortable on the Dem & NPA numbers, the main variable is the GOP number. If they get more than 1,207,000 voters, the Dems have to keep pace which up to 800K D Voters I think they could. The statewide deficit right now is around 130K votes. The GOP wants a Registered voter edge of 700,000 or more, the Dems would love that number to be under 600,000. The stats say it falls somewhere in the middle.
Now if the GOP turnout gets depressed where they only turnout around 1 million voters while the Dems get at least 600K, then you get to a point where Jolly can win on the NPA margins without having to rely on significant GOP crossover that's above the midterm norm (5% is average in most races, excluding DeSantis 2022).
So what do I see?
Donalds 90-91% GOP Retention
Donalds 4.5% D to R Crossover
Donalds 38-39 NPA Share
vs
Jolly 94-95% Dem Crossover
Jolly 6-8% R to D Crossover
Jolly 60-61% NPA Share
Using these numbers above I get this for the most favorable outcomes above for each candidate in an R+9 Environment
Donalds +1.66% (49.90%) Jolly (48.23%)
Jolly +0.60 (49.57%) Donalds (49.07%)
Here's the thing. Neither candidate will hit 51%. Donalds does have a better chance to hit 50%. And even in cases where Jolly pulls the upset it's much harder for him to clear 50%. In the Donalds win above additional 1% R vote for Jewett instead of Jolly which increases the margin. In the Jolly win it's less.
So I would rate this as Tilt R but it will depend heavily on GOP turnout tomorrow. All states are struggling with depressed GOP turnout. Nobody knows to what extent in FL that will be or how the flooding will play a part. Anything from Donalds +3 to Jolly +1 I see as possible. And it would not surprise me if this race hit manual recount territory.
Now I ain't making a guarantee like 321Noles but statistically there's no way Byron's winning this race by 7 points. Moody may not even win by that much although she's in much better position to do so. For Byron to win by 7 in this R+9 environment he'd have to be retaining DeSantis 2022 level R-s (97%) and only be losing NPA's by single digits while getting significant D > R crossover. As I said before, unless there is some secret Nixon-Donalds voter bloc out there, I don't see this happening.
@RationalPurview @BrianHJacobson @LivemusicCJ @GreenspansWager @EllenFL214 @KateW1970 @mheinz16 @Real_miss_Jodie @MTPerry_Powell @Danielstilwell
Since both candidates suck, I will give my honest opinion about what will happen in the FL Gov Race tomorrow.
I see a +/- 1 point race and very possibly a recount (God Help Us!)
*IF* The Election Day makeup is GOP about 1,207,000 R's tomorrow, the D's about 638,000, and about 500,000 NPAs you'd get an R+9 Electorate. For Jolly to win in R+9 he needs roughly 6 in 10 NPA's & approximately 7-8% GOP Crossover while losing no more than 5% D to R crossover. Based on polls, that is definitely possible. He could actually win with as little as 6% crossover if he ran NPA's 64-35. While it's probable he's leading NPA's by healthy margin that's a little aggressive but not out of the realm of possibilities. I think 60-39 is where everyone is herding.
The ED Electorate I gave above equates to about R+25. I am more comfortable on the Dem & NPA numbers, the main variable is the GOP number. If they get more than 1,207,000 voters, the Dems have to keep pace which up to 800K D Voters I think they could. The statewide deficit right now is around 130K votes. The GOP wants a Registered voter edge of 700,000 or more, the Dems would love that number to be under 600,000. The stats say it falls somewhere in the middle.
Now if the GOP turnout gets depressed where they only turnout around 1 million voters while the Dems get at least 600K, then you get to a point where Jolly can win on the NPA margins without having to rely on significant GOP crossover that's above the midterm norm (5% is average in most races, excluding DeSantis 2022).
So what do I see?
Donalds 90-91% GOP Retention
Donalds 4.5% D to R Crossover
Donalds 38-39 NPA Share
vs
Jolly 94-95% Dem Crossover
Jolly 6-8% R to D Crossover
Jolly 60-61% NPA Share
Using these numbers above I get this for the most favorable outcomes above for each candidate in an R+9 Environment
Donalds +1.66% (49.90%) Jolly (48.23%)
Jolly +0.60 (49.57%) Donalds (49.07%)
Here's the thing. Neither candidate will hit 51%. Donalds does have a better chance to hit 50%. And even in cases where Jolly pulls the upset it's much harder for him to clear 50%. In the Donalds win above additional 1% R vote for Jewett instead of Jolly which increases the margin. In the Jolly win it's less.
So I would rate this as Tilt R but it will depend heavily on GOP turnout tomorrow. All states are struggling with depressed GOP turnout. Nobody knows to what extent in FL that will be or how the flooding will play a part. Anything from Donalds +3 to Jolly +1 I see as possible. And it would not surprise me if this race hit manual recount territory.
Now I ain't making a guarantee like 321Noles but statistically there's no way Byron's winning this race by 7 points. Moody may not even win by that much although she's in much better position to do so. For Byron to win by 7 in this R+9 environment he'd have to be retaining DeSantis 2022 level R-s (97%) and only be losing NPA's by single digits while getting significant D > R crossover. As I said before, unless there is some secret Nixon-Donalds voter bloc out there, I don't see this happening.
@RationalPurview @BrianHJacobson @LivemusicCJ @GreenspansWager @EllenFL214 @KateW1970 @mheinz16 @Real_miss_Jodie @MTPerry_Powell @Danielstilwell
This is so stupid. Even DeSantis debunked this idea last week that the reason FL R's are struggling isn't because of blue state carpetbaggers moving in.
Donalds sucks & you know it. The difference is when you also said Donalds sucks a year ago & wouldn't support him, many people also shared that belief and have stuck to it. I called this over a year ago that you would be posting exactly what you're posting now b/c your job depended on it & you tried to tell me that I was wrong & didn't know what I was talking about. Well, surprise, surprise, surprise.
We had a better choice in the Primary which is why despite no major endorsements, Lt. Gov Jay Collins got nearly 25% of the vote & had you attended one of his events in person you would have realized right away that the garbage the Comms shop was using to try to smear him & his wife online was BS. Couple this with the FL GOP rigging the process to allow Donalds to skate by without any vetting, your lamentation that no one else in the Primary set themselves apart to challenge Donalds is hogwash.
Hey @stevedeaceshow @DeaceProducer @DeaceOnline you guys could easily reference check /w FL Lt Gov @JayCollinsFL or @Collinslayla who can easily vouch for @RationalPurview that he's not some internet rando nutcase. You offered anonymity to DataRepublican, why are the rules for Croaky different?
Genius Parks retweeted
Mike Norvell lasted less than 24 hours after Florida State fans flew a plane.
Thank you to the message board warriors.