Journalist. Mediaholic. Avid traveller!
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Joined May 2007
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Saudi Arabia’s reported use of a Chinese DF-15A missile in Yemen raises new questions about Middle East weapons sales wsj.com/world/middle-east/de…
Muhammad غفّاري retweeted
Approximate 10-day averages by country:
➤ Iran: essentially zero, with the 10-day average near flat since August. Iranian-attributed outbound flows through Hormuz have virtually disappeared.
➤ Saudi Arabia: roughly 2 mb/d, recovered from near-zero but still far below the roughly 7–8 mb/d moving through Hormuz before the war.
➤ Iraq: roughly 1–1.5 mb/d, with considerable day-to-day volatility.
➤ UAE: roughly 1–1.5 mb/d.
➤ Kuwait: roughly 0.5–1 mb/d.
➤ Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers with no identified origin vessel: roughly 2.5–3 mb/d and rising, now one of the largest components of outbound flow.
There’s also a smaller “Other Gulf” component, probably around 0.5 mb/d currently.
Muhammad غفّاري retweeted
Total Hormuz outbound flow (7-day rolling):
▪️Pre-war baseline (February): roughly 20-23 mb/d
▪️Collapse: to near 1-2 mb/d by late March through May
▪️July recovery peak: about 16-17 mb/d
▪️August trough: back down to roughly 4-5 mb/d
▪️Current September level: roughly 9-12 mb/d, with the most recent confirmed point around 12 mb/d before the two unrevised days which Johnston says will be revised higher as data becomes clear
Source: Commodity Context, Kpler
Muhammad غفّاري retweeted
Here is the extended @60Minutes interview with the Air Force officer known as Bravo:
youtube.com/watch?v=KNhO1Umj…
Muhammad غفّاري retweeted
Dramatic video, obtained first by 60 Minutes, shows the rescue of two Air Force officers shot down over a mountainous desert region of Iran back in April. cbsn.ws/4hahJS9
Eye opener!
Online scamming is a vast, sophisticated and fast-growing global enterprise that compares in size and scope to the illegal drug industry. Except that in many ways it is worse. As our investigation finds, nobody is safe from Scam Inc econ.st/4hD0CHi
Muhammad غفّاري retweeted
Online scamming is a vast, sophisticated and fast-growing global enterprise that compares in size and scope to the illegal drug industry. Except that in many ways it is worse. As our investigation finds, nobody is safe from Scam Inc econ.st/4hD0CHi
Sharing some memories from when our drive went very wrong in Central Asia! 🚑
DISASTER IN TAJIKISTAN... WE SURVIVED BY A MIRACLE! youtu.be/oJFLC4y6z-k?si=2IrZ… via @YouTube
Muhammad غفّاري retweeted
Major @FT investigation by @maxseddon, @MilesMJohnson, and @charles_clover: Moscow has been helping Iran acquire the engineering know-how to design and improve its own ramjet-powered supersonic cruise missiles.
Muhammad غفّاري retweeted
The Board of Peace and the mediating countries of Egypt, Qatar, Türkiye, and the United States today are pleased to announce that Hamas has agreed to a detailed Roadmap for implementing the next phases of the Gaza ceasefire.
The agreement concludes months of intensive, good faith negotiations to advance President Donald J. Trump's vision for establishing new governance, security, humanitarian relief, reconstruction, and economic recovery in Gaza as set out in the Comprehensive Peace Plan and U.N. Security Council Resolution 2803.
The Roadmap represents a historic breakthrough. For the first time, Hamas officially has committed to an actionable plan for relinquishing all its weapons, which will be followed by Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
It holds the promise of delivering significant benefits to the people of Gaza, who have waited for too long for a better future, and security to the people of Israel.
Our focus now turns to implementation. The Board of Peace has worked closely with the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). It will soon begin a phased transition toward full authority, backed by the International Stabilization Force (ISF), and will accelerate implementation of the rule of law, security, and humanitarian improvement in Gaza.
Deterrence is ineffective when adversaries know the U.S. can't sustain a long war. Capacity therefore acts as a fourth deterrence variable by making U.S. combat power more replenishable, repairable, and resilient over time.
Read more @csisfutures's Ben Jensen: csis.org/analysis/reindustri…
Traffic rises, risks persist
Daily monitoring shows stronger transit volumes across the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, with 12 and 41 confirmed crossings respectively on 28 July. Yet higher traffic should not be mistaken for lower risk. Hormuz routing remains concentrated outside traditional traffic separation patterns, while Bab el-Mandeb continues to present elevated operational and compliance challenges through dark transits, sanctioned vessels and shadow fleet movements. With 62 confirmed maritime security incidents recorded by the IMO as of 27 July and geopolitical tensions still unresolved, vessel behaviour remains a more meaningful indicator than crossing volumes alone. For operators and markets alike, transparency, routing choices and emerging disruptions remain the key signals to watch over the coming days.
Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/Lb3A9Q
Bahrain and Kuwait secretly sent jets to attack sites inside Iran, their first such direct retaliation against Tehran wsj.com/world/middle-east/ir…
Muhammad غفّاري retweeted
BREAKING:
Israeli intelligence believes that Iran has moved thousands of nuclear centrifuges into tunnels deep inside Pickaxe Mountain, a heavily fortified underground facility near Natanz – WSJ
The assessment says the centrifuges could be used to enrich Iran's existing stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium to weapons-grade for potential use in nuclear warheads.
Muhammad غفّاري retweeted
UNITED STATES | Surge in aerial refuelling activity around the Middle East
Open-source flight tracking indicates at least 123 movements by U.S. KC-135 and KC-46 tanker aircraft over the past 72 hours — an average of roughly 41 per day.
At least 17 tanker missions were tracked near the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, pointing to sustained support for U.S. combat-air operations in the region.
Public transponder data may not capture every military flight and does not necessarily represent 123 separate aircraft.
Muhammad غفّاري retweeted
Security Alert: U.S. Embassy Amman - July 19. 2026
Due to a specific and credible threat, Jordanian authorities evacuated the international airport and seaport in Aqaba. We strongly advise all Americans to refrain traveling to either the airport or seaport. Continue to follow all Jordanian authorities’ security directives.
U.S. Embassy Amman continues to advise all Americans to avoid travel to military bases in Jordan.
On March 2, 2026, the Department of State ordered non-emergency U.S. government employees and their family members to leave Jordan due to safety risks.
Actions to Take:
Please visit Jordan’s National Center for Security and Crisis Management website for public safety guidelines, including explanations of emergency sirens in Jordan.
Avoid all demonstrations and large gatherings.
Avoid all areas where there is a heavy police presence.
Monitor local media.
Follow the instructions of local authorities.
Contact your airline directly for flight change details if your flight is affected.
Exercise caution and stay alert at locations publicly associated with the United States.
Keep a low profile.
Enroll in the Department of State’s Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP). STEP enrollment connects you to the U.S. embassy or consulate so you get the latest security updates. It also makes it easier for the U.S. Embassy or consulate to contact you in an emergency.
Assistance:
U.S. Embassy – Amman, Jordan
Al-Umawyeen 37, Amman, Jordan
Phone number (emergencies during business hours): +962 6 590-6000
Phone number (emergencies after business hours): +962 6 590-6500
Email: Amman-ACS@state.gov
State Department – Consular Affairs
+1 202-501-4444 from abroad
1-888-407-4747 from the U.S./Canada
Muhammad غفّاري retweeted
The White House believes military action will soften Iran and compel it to give up its leverage (the Strait)
In reality, the more the US is willing to bomb Iran to control the Strait, the more it convinces Iran that it must control the Strait to defeat American military plans.
Muhammad غفّاري retweeted
Strait of Hormuz over the last 48 hours: Back to the start.
As the war rages on, Fujairah as the main tanker shuttle port is all but dead after the IRGC fired missiles at two VLCCs, the first escalation of its type yesterday.
Even with US protection, it was not enough, and this is going to take ~6 million b/d of flow out of the market.
To further add to my point that the escalation is increasing, this segment from the WSJ article is very concerning:
"There was also concern among shippers that the scope of Iran’s attacks was widening away from the immediate vicinity of the strait after a vessel was targeted off Oman early Tuesday, according to its owner, London-based Stolt-Nielsen. It had not crossed the strait at all and was loaded with Omani chemicals headed to Malaysia, according to Kpler."
We are in no-man's land now. Either Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz or it doesn't. It's all-or-nothing.
I have included the video from @MarineTraffic.