Assistant Professor @SciencesPo @CGSG_SciencesPo | Associate @ManagingtheAtom @BelferCenter | Associate Fellow @IFRI_ | Russia, Iran, nuclear, missiles
Paris
Joined July 2014
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After nearly a decade of work on the Russia-Iran relationship, I wrote a book about it.
hurstpublishers.com/book/rus…
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
An incredibly detailed piece that should be read in its entirety. One point stands out to me:
The shadow economy described in this piece is, in a sense, Iran's real economy, as it is how the country's governing elite manage their wealth, distribute patronage, arm and supply the IRGC and other military/security bodies, and maintain connections to the global economy through intermediaries.
This underscores the thesis that broad economic pressure--while very damaging to Iran's civilian economy and to the Iranian people as a whole--is less effective at pressuring the regime or those who profit from it continuing to remain in power. reuters.com/world/iran/irans…
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
This is an important story for three main reasons beyond the obvious value that these goods have for Iran's capabilities.
First, it shows the limits of sanctions. Max pressure sanctions have been in effect since 2018. MODAFL has been sanctioned since the Bush Admin. 1/4
Iran created a secret network of military agencies to import at least $2 billion in hardware, explosives and heavy-duty trucks since January 2025, evading both the US naval blockade and Western sanctions, a Reuters investigation found reut.rs/3UNGyfk
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
Notable:
"The tone of Vance's letter shows a marked difference from Trump's letter prior to the 12-Day War. In this letter, threatening language is much more subdued, while a soft and respectful tone is more prominent."
This quoted post is unavailable.
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
"Within days, Russian soldiers poisoned their dog, an Alabai, along with all the other large dogs in Oleshky. They killed Liudmila’s nextdoor neighbor and raped his wife. A local butcher disappeared; no one knew whether he was also killed. Some neighbors were detained and beaten. Armed, masked soldiers searched Liudmila’s home three times, confiscating the couple’s Ukrainian passports and leaving them with no documents. And yet, Liudmila and Andriy stayed. They got a new puppy, also an Alabai. Russian troops started to move into civilian houses, parking tanks in what once were gardens."
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
Iran has harnessed a military-financial complex of 5,000 agencies to bring in components, explosives and heavy-duty trucks critical to its drone and missile programs. Even during the war, deliveries reached Iran by land, sea and air reut.rs/4z7aCRr
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
Our analysis of recent Vanguard class submarine movements and some possible reasons why three of the subs are at sea right now nukewatch.org.uk/royal-navy-…
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
I would not be surprised if Iran agreed to allow inspectors back in. But important details would need to be decided in advance: Which sites? For how long? And under what terms? The answers would determine whether that access would be useful or basically useless.
I would be VERY surprised if Iran agreed to part with its HEU stockpile—its most important nuclear bargaining chip—any time soon.
🇺🇸🇮🇷Regional mediators led by Qatar are trying to reach a diplomatic deal to restart negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and prevent the resumption of war after the midterm elections, three U.S., Israeli and regional sources say. My story on @axios
axios.com/2026/10/28/iran-wa…
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
The letter to Mohsen Rezaei, which focused on restarting negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, is the most senior-level outreach by the U.S. to Iran in several months. It comes as President Trump considers resuming major combat operations in Iran after the midterm elections
🇺🇸🇮🇷Vice President Vance sent a letter to Iran's national security chief stressing that any negotiations to head off U.S. military strikes "require discussions on the nuclear issue," a U.S. official said. My report on @axios
axios.com/2026/10/28/vance-i…
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
🇫🇷🇨🇳🎙️ FLASH | Séquence très TENDUE sur LCI, quand l'ambassadeur de Chine en France est Interrogé par Darius Rochebin sur les « 80 millions de morts sous Mao ». « Je ne suis pas venu ici pour discuter de ces racontars », répond l'ambassadeur avant de critiquer les États-Unis sur les droits humains.
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
Bulava SLBM launched westward from the Pacific. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/… Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p…
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
This is the X-37B taxiing after landing.
It’s been on orbit for hundreds of days. Built by Boeing.
Will the Space Force eventually ask SpaceX to modify a Starship upper stage to compete with it? That would be a very big spaceplane.
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
Ethiopian PM confirms procurement of 12 Su-35 Flanker M from Russia
These specific airframes are almost certainly the remainder of the cancelled Egyptian order
Around half of that order ultimately went to Algeria last year with the remainder previously earmarked for Iran.
Our comprehensive efforts to sustainably ensure our country's peace and security have reached a new milestone today. The state of readiness being built within Ethiopia's defense forces is endowing the nation with the capability to preemptively deter aggression.
In accordance with our prior agreement with the Russian government, we have today taken delivery of the first twelve Su-35 4++ Generation fighter jets. Additionally, Ethiopia will receive four S-400 air defense system batteries.
I would like to express my gratitude to my friend, Russian President Vladimir Putin, for his dedication in ensuring we received these warplanes a year ahead of our agreed schedule. By equipping itself with these fighter jets, Ethiopia has taken the lead among Sub-Saharan African nations.
This historic achievement further strengthens our nation's sovereignty, and it will serve as a massive capability boost that allows us to confidently continue our journey toward ensuring our collective security and regional stability in the future.
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
Russian satellites help Iran's allies strike Saudi Arabia, data and officials say apnews.com/article/russia-ir…
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
The cost of the Iran war rose to $47.1 billion, with bombs, missiles, and other munitions accounting for more than 60 percent of the expenses.
(The costs to repair or replace US military bases weren't included.)
nytimes.com/2026/10/27/us/po…
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
Qatar presented Iran with a new draft deal on October 25 that sets a 7-day timeline to end the war, and Tehran is expected to respond by the end of the week.
Netanyahu's pushing for round 3, yet Tehran is gambling with time (a negotiating tactic). reuters.com/world/asia-pacif…
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
Explosion in Baharestan, Isfahan @ 0645Z
(Possibly UXO)
Isfahan Province, Iran
[Delayed Post via FromIran · 120-second delay]
fromiran.sh1n.org/incidents/…
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
"Whatever the wisdom of President Trump’s decision to attack Iran, he has found the least bad military strategy for the war going forward: blockading the Strait of Hormuz while escorting friendly shipping through. This strategy has kept global oil prices from going through the roof while squeezing Iran harder. Unless Iran escalates first, Mr. Trump should stick with it. Time is on America’s side, and costs, while high, are limited. A renewed or intensified air war would be a giant and fraught roll of the dice."
wsj.com/opinion/slow-and-ste…
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
This is so funny because Mao himself unabashedly admitted his dictatorship and bragged he killed more intellectuals than the notorious Chinese tyrant Qin Shi Huang
🚨 JUST IN: Chinese beverage company DongPeng have ended their sponsorship with Kylian Mbappé after he referred to former Chinese Premier Mao Zedong as a “dictator”.
The company have said they have “zero tolerance” for statements that hurt their national sentiment. @marca
Nicole Grajewski retweeted
Oct 28 (Reuters) - Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal on Sunday to end the US-Israeli war on the country, which Tehran is considering and expected to send a response to by the end of the week, an official briefed on the negotiations said on Wednesday.
There were concerns ahead of Sunday's meeting in Tehran that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu could resume attacks on the Islamic Republic this week, the official added.