I do like 1 video a year if we're lucky lol (pinned) | mostly here to dump my thoughts on my readings, politics and the like
Joined January 2025
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The yt channel if ur interested;) youtube.com/@given06?si
=4xfBD4tPBWw4wJ40https://youtube.com/@given06?si=4xfBD4tPBWw4wJ40
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Yet ANOTHER BATO ARREST “final” ultimatum lapsed! What on earth is going on? Last NOVEMBER pa tong ICC WARRANT na to!
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A “Pink Wave” in 2028 is very very doable, especially as Sara Duterte conviction very very likely too… @IanIslander3 @momentumph_ #DeepDive 🎙️
Random ahh poll but buttigieg leading is kinda crazy
USC poll | 10/22-10/28 LV
Democratic presidential primary 2028 by congressional districts in California
CA-01:
🟦Gavin Newsom 18%
🟦Pete Buttigieg 18%
🟦Jon Ossoff 11%
🟦AOC 10%
🟦Kamala Harris 8%
——
CA-06:
🟦Gavin Newsom 19%
🟦Pete Buttigieg 19%
🟦Kamala Harris 11%
🟦Jon Ossoff 11%
🟦AOC 10%
——
CA-22:
🟦Gavin Newsom 27%
🟦Kamala Harris 14%
🟦AOC 13%
🟦Pete Buttigieg 7%
🟦Jon Ossoff 7%
——
CA-48:
🟦Pete Buttigieg 21%
🟦Gavin Newsom 19%
🟦Jon Ossoff 14%
🟦Kamala Harris 9%
🟦Mark Kelly 6%
🟦AOC 6%
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sure, but legit questions:
1) Why is it that when it's about China somehow the policy response should be de-escalation and appeasement?
2) Somehow the exit of the US will no longer make us a target. As if backing down from the Scarborough stand off made China "diplomatic". Lol
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Yup, I'm already back at it.
US midterm elections prediction up NOW!!!
youtu.be/6-mO38qTBGQ?si=QQ2q…
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Basic geopolitical understanding explains why it's in our best interest to side with another superpower against a superpower that's actively ramming our boats.
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In a realism standpoint of IR, we are forced to leverage the US and other western nations to defend our national territory. Not necessarily us capitulating fully to imperialism.
How in the world are we meant to demilitarize the WPS when China actively wants to seize it?
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Every Dem is using a sophisticated model called “PTSD” that subtracts 5 points from every red state Dem and 10 for Maine and South Carolina
Yup, I'm already back at it.
US midterm elections prediction up NOW!!!
youtu.be/6-mO38qTBGQ?si=QQ2q…
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Momentum Research releases their October national survey, their third poll this year. @momentumph_
Key results in this thread⬇️Expanded & Head-to-head matchups - topline:
President - Expanded List
🟩Duterte 44.3% (-1.5)
🟪Robredo 19.4% (-0.1)
🟥Tulfo 11.1% (-2.2)
🟪Aquino 4% (+0.1)
🟩Go 4% (+1.1)
🟪Hontiveros 3.3% (+1.2)
🟥Teodoro 1.5% (new)
🟥Remulla <1% (-1)
🟪Pangilinan <1% (0)
Hindi ko alam 9%
Hindi sigurado 4%
+/- vs. August 2026
Narrowed field with 3 potential candidates
🟩Duterte 50.6% (-4.9)
🟪Robredo 35.3% (+4.3)
🟥Teodoro 4% (August - Remulla 3.5%)
Narrowed field with only 2 potential candidates
🟩Duterte 53% (-5)
🟪Robredo 37% (+3)
Narrowed field, Baste Duterte replaces Sara Duterte
🟪Robredo 45.7% (new)
🟩Baste Duterte 43.2% (new)
For Vice President - Expanded list
🟩Padilla 20% (+5)
🟥Tulfo 18% (-7)
🟩Go 14% (0)
🟪Aquino 10% (+2)
🟩Marcoleta 9% (0)
🟪Pangilinan 7% (+4)
🟪Hontiveros 6% (-2)
🟩Marcos Imee 3% (0)
🟥Gatchalian 2% (-2)
🟥Teodoro 2% (new)
🟥Remulla 1% (0)
🟥Dizon 1% (+1)
@DeusXMachina14 @QuingAndre @CleveArguelles
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Some catches: In the expanded list, Sen. Tulfo at 28% and FVP Robredo at 25% are tied as the leading picks among pro-Marcos voters, followed by Duterte at 12%, Bong Go at 11%, Hontiveros at 7%, and Teodoro at 6%.
Among Independents: Duterte 32%, Robredo 21%, Tulfo 14%, Aquino 5%.
In a three-way race (among pro-Marcos voters): Robredo is at a near-majority 48%, Duterte at 28%, while presumed administration bet Teodoro is only at 15%.
Very close among Independents, with a 5-pt gap: Duterte 43%, Robredo 38%, Teodoro 4%.
For head-to-head matchups:
Pro-Marcos voters back Robredo by more than 2:1: Robredo 61%, Duterte 25%. Against Baste Duterte, it’s Robredo 71%-21%.
Among Independents, the same 5-pt gap: Duterte 46%, Robredo 41%. However, if it’s Baste Duterte, Robredo leads Independents by double digits, +13%.
Pro Duterte and the Opposition
Senators Padilla 39%, Bong Go 24%, and Marcoleta 16% are the main VP picks among pro-Duterte voters. If Baste replaces Inday, his support is at 80%, considerably lower. Robredo receives 15% in this scenario (among pro-Duterte voters).
A majority of opposition voters support Robredo in the expanded list, with 52%, followed by Duterte at 12%, Aquino at 10%, Hontiveros at 7%, Bong Go at 6%, and Tulfo at 5%.
In the matchups, Robredo is at 81-84%. The top VP picks from the opposition bloc are all senators: Bam Aquino at 29%, Kiko Pangilinan at 21%, Raffy Tulfo at 18%, and Risa Hontiveros at 17%.
@momentumph_ @DeusXMachina14 @QuingAndre
Momentum Research releases their October national survey, their third poll this year. @momentumph_
Key results in this thread⬇️Expanded & Head-to-head matchups - topline:
President - Expanded List
🟩Duterte 44.3% (-1.5)
🟪Robredo 19.4% (-0.1)
🟥Tulfo 11.1% (-2.2)
🟪Aquino 4% (+0.1)
🟩Go 4% (+1.1)
🟪Hontiveros 3.3% (+1.2)
🟥Teodoro 1.5% (new)
🟥Remulla <1% (-1)
🟪Pangilinan <1% (0)
Hindi ko alam 9%
Hindi sigurado 4%
+/- vs. August 2026
Narrowed field with 3 potential candidates
🟩Duterte 50.6% (-4.9)
🟪Robredo 35.3% (+4.3)
🟥Teodoro 4% (August - Remulla 3.5%)
Narrowed field with only 2 potential candidates
🟩Duterte 53% (-5)
🟪Robredo 37% (+3)
Narrowed field, Baste Duterte replaces Sara Duterte
🟪Robredo 45.7% (new)
🟩Baste Duterte 43.2% (new)
For Vice President - Expanded list
🟩Padilla 20% (+5)
🟥Tulfo 18% (-7)
🟩Go 14% (0)
🟪Aquino 10% (+2)
🟩Marcoleta 9% (0)
🟪Pangilinan 7% (+4)
🟪Hontiveros 6% (-2)
🟩Marcos Imee 3% (0)
🟥Gatchalian 2% (-2)
🟥Teodoro 2% (new)
🟥Remulla 1% (0)
🟥Dizon 1% (+1)
@DeusXMachina14 @QuingAndre @CleveArguelles
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The second largest swing when Sara is replaced by Baste is in NCR from 48.7% down -> 33.5% (MoE±7%)
This is how it would look like if plugged into the NEMO Swingmeter (including its neighbors) @QuingAndre
Some catches: In the expanded list, Sen. Tulfo at 28% and FVP Robredo at 25% are tied as the leading picks among pro-Marcos voters, followed by Duterte at 12%, Bong Go at 11%, Hontiveros at 7%, and Teodoro at 6%.
Among Independents: Duterte 32%, Robredo 21%, Tulfo 14%, Aquino 5%.
In a three-way race (among pro-Marcos voters): Robredo is at a near-majority 48%, Duterte at 28%, while presumed administration bet Teodoro is only at 15%.
Very close among Independents, with a 5-pt gap: Duterte 43%, Robredo 38%, Teodoro 4%.
For head-to-head matchups:
Pro-Marcos voters back Robredo by more than 2:1: Robredo 61%, Duterte 25%. Against Baste Duterte, it’s Robredo 71%-21%.
Among Independents, the same 5-pt gap: Duterte 46%, Robredo 41%. However, if it’s Baste Duterte, Robredo leads Independents by double digits, +13%.
Pro Duterte and the Opposition
Senators Padilla 39%, Bong Go 24%, and Marcoleta 16% are the main VP picks among pro-Duterte voters. If Baste replaces Inday, his support is at 80%, considerably lower. Robredo receives 15% in this scenario (among pro-Duterte voters).
A majority of opposition voters support Robredo in the expanded list, with 52%, followed by Duterte at 12%, Aquino at 10%, Hontiveros at 7%, Bong Go at 6%, and Tulfo at 5%.
In the matchups, Robredo is at 81-84%. The top VP picks from the opposition bloc are all senators: Bam Aquino at 29%, Kiko Pangilinan at 21%, Raffy Tulfo at 18%, and Risa Hontiveros at 17%.
@momentumph_ @DeusXMachina14 @QuingAndre
