Tobias Carlisle

Each of the last several decades had a clear winner, an asset that rose so far and so persistently that it came to seem like the obvious place for money. Each went on to disappoint in the decade that followed. The pattern is consistent across very different assets: * Gold rose more than thirteen-fold in the inflationary 1970s, then lost ground through the 1980s as inflation fell. * Japanese stocks rose nearly six-fold in the 1980s, then lost half their value in the 1990s, beginning a slump that lasted decades. * The Nasdaq rose roughly nine-fold in the 1990s, then fell 44 percent in the 2000s. * Emerging market stocks nearly tripled in the 2000s, then barely moved in the 2010s. In each case, the decade’s winner ended it with the widest following, the most confident forecasts, and the highest prices relative to its fundamentals.