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State of the market a 🧵: this is based on my experience of 21 years in both old and new defense.
Nathan Mintz retweeted
8 elections in Latin America since USAID got defunded
The "far-right" won all 8 of them
Southern California in a brownout again due to the high load from the heat. This is the third world country Newsom and the theater kids gave us.
Anyone else notice how these LED bulbs don’t really last any longer than incandescent ones, especially the dimmer bulbs?
“Under communism, the future is certain; it is only the past that is unpredictable.” - old Soviet joke
Nathan Mintz retweeted
What happened at Cornell is disgusting
But if you think it’s bad, go look into what the migrant rape gangs in Europe have been doing
Nathan Mintz retweeted
Operation Epic Fury showed the F-35 was the "Tesla" of the combat package, providing sensor fusion for missions deep into Iran...(Col. Charles Fallon, 388th Fighter Wing Commander)
#AFANational
With friends like some of our senators…
The IRGC Didn't Need Spies. It Had Chris Murphy (D) on Foreign Relations.
Across 90 distinct Telegram transmissions the IRGC-aligned vanguard channel Bisimchi Media, the state-run domestic wire Khabar-e Fori, the state external broadcaster Press TV, Senator Chris Murphy was utilized as a key American informational asset.
Because Murphy sat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and had direct access to closed-door, classified Pentagon and intelligence briefings, his public disclosures, tweets, and media remarks were treated by Iran’s state and IRGC-aligned media as official American admissions of defeat (اعتراف) and operational paralysis.
Phase I: Dismantling Pre-War Deterrence & Validating Iranian Resilience
June 12, 2025... Undermining Allied Retaliation:
Immediately following Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, Murphy issued a statement blaming Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu for collapsing diplomacy and stating that allies hold zero respect for the US. BBC Persian broadcast this to show that Washington was fractured and that Netanyahu was "dragging America into an unwanted conflagration."
June 22, 2025... Debunking the Nuclear Threat
Narrative: State-run English broadcaster Press TV blasted Murphy’s disclosure from closed intelligence briefings:
“Last week, I was briefed that Iran posed no imminent threat and wasn’t close to building a nuclear weapon, and that the negotiations Israel disrupted could have succeeded.”
Adversary Value: Stripped the US and Israel of their public casus belli before international audiences.
June 24–27, 2025... Sinking the Impact of the Fordo
Bunker Strikes: Following US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, Trump claimed the program was “decimated.” Murphy walked out of a classified Senate hearing and told reporters that the strikes set Iran back by only a few months and that Fordo was not destroyed.
His line... “You cannot destroy knowledge with bombing”... was amplified simultaneously by IRGC media Bisimchi Media and Khabar-e Fori to prove that US military might was impotent against Iranian technological achievements.
June 29, 2025... Calling US Military Action an “Illegal Crime”:
On Khabar-e Fori, Murphy was quoted stating that Trump’s strikes were blatantly illegal, unconstitutional, and far worse than any offense of his first term, handing Tehran legal rhetoric to brand US actions as international law violations.
Phase II: Outbreak of Full War... Leaking Weakness & Demoralizing the Home Front
March 2, 2026... Framing the War as a Sexual Scandal Cover-up:
As fighting commenced, Murphy tweeted that Trump started the war as a distraction from the Jeffrey Epstein child sexual abuse files. Khabar-e Fori broadcast this to millions of Iranians, weaponizing it to frame the entire US military offensive as the corrupt, decadent whim of an unstable leader.
March 3–4, 2026... Leaking Classified Briefings:
“We Cannot Stop Iranian Drones”: In one of the most heavily distributed video clips of the entire archive, Murphy walked out of an executive intelligence briefing and announced:
“This is as serious as it gets. They [intelligence authorities] told us in that room that there are gonna be more Americans that are gonna die, that they’re not gonna be able to stop these drones.”
Exploitation:
Press TV, Bisimchi Media, and Khabar-e Fori turned this into a victory loop. Bisimchi Media bannered it as “Admissions of American Senator: Trump administration confesses they cannot stop Iran’s infamous kamikaze drones.” This directly undercut US air defense credibility while boosting IRGC morale.
March 6, 2026... Confirming Iran Struck Covert US Sites:
Murphy posted that “Iran... perhaps for the first time... now knows the location of our most sensitive secret regional sites.” Khabar-e Fori immediately relayed this, confirming to Iranian missile forces that their reconnaissance and strike packages had successfully compromised deep-cover US operational hubs.
March 10, 2026... “Israel Forced Us Into This”:
Exiting a two-hour closed-door session, Murphy was asked by a reporter why the US was fighting Iran. He responded flatly: “Israel forced us into this.” Khabar-e Fori and Bisimchi Media blasted the clip across the Middle East, using Murphy’s own words to argue that American soldiers were dying as mercenary cannon fodder for Benjamin Netanyahu.
March 10, 2026... “We Will Achieve None of Our Objectives”:
Murphy stated to reporters: “We are not going to be able to achieve any of our stated objectives. There is practically no way we can destroy their nuclear program... unless we launch a ground invasion.” Bisimchi Media packaged this under the headline: “American Senator Confesses: We Will Achieve None of Our Goals!”
March 12, 2026... Validating the Minab School Strike:
Following civilian casualties in Minab, Murphy declared that the strike proved Pentagon incompetence and accused Trump of lying when he blamed Iranian munitions, pointing out that only the US operates Tomahawk cruise missiles (Khabar-e Fori, Press TV). This destroyed US public-affairs denials and handed Tehran an open-and-shut case of American culpability.
March 14, 2026... Murphy’s 4-Crisis Blueprint:
Handing Tehran the Tactical Game Plan: Murphy published a thread laying out four catastrophic operational bottlenecks facing the US military:
1. The US Navy cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz:
Escorting 100 tankers a day would consume the entire US Navy, exposing American warships to thousands of swarming drones, un-sweepable mines, and fast boats.
2. Air-Defense Depletion: Gulf allies were exhausting their interceptor stockpiles, leaving regional energy infrastructure defenseless against cheap drones.
3. Uncontrollable Regional Expansion: Fronts opening in Lebanon, Iraq, and the Red Sea.
4. No Exit Strategy: Any ground assault would be “Armageddon.”
Phase III: Sinking the War Powers Vote & Fueling Domestic Disarray
March 21–23, 2026... Neutralizing Trump’s Ultimatums:
When Trump issued 48-hour and 5-day ultimatums threatening Iranian energy grids, Murphy undercut the coercive diplomacy on Press TV and Khabar-e Fori, telling the world: “He’s lost control of the war and he is panicking... This isn’t a message to Iran. It’s a panicky message to the markets: ‘No escalation until markets close on Friday.’” Tehran ignored Trump’s red lines, knowing Washington was terrified of oil price spikes.
March 24–25, 2026... Forcing the War Powers Resolution / Exposing Costs:
Murphy marched to the Senate floor to force a vote to halt the war, publicly publishing sensitive operational figures: 12 American soldiers dead, $2 billion a day spent, and no ability to defeat Iranian missile batteries (Khabar-e Fori). Though the resolution failed 53–47, Iranian channels framed the vote as evidence that half of the US government regarded the war as illegal and unsustainable.
March 31, 2026... Dismantling Secretary of State Rubio’s 4 War Goals:
Secretary Marco Rubio announced four tactical goals (destroying Iran’s air force, navy, missile sites, and factories). Murphy posted a point-by-point rebuttal explaining why the US was losing: drones made the air force irrelevant, fast boats rendered naval destruction pointless, mobile missiles remained hidden, and China/Russia would rebuild Iran’s military in exchange for transit rights through Hormuz. They headlined the analysis: “American Senator: We Are Losing Badly and Shamefully in the War With Iran.”
April 3, 2026... Sowing Mutiny in the Pentagon:
When War Secretary Pete Hegseth purged several top US generals, Murphy announced that senior military brass were being fired because they told Hegseth that his war plans against Iran were “unworkable, disastrous, and deadly”. This allowed Tehran to claim that the US Joint Chiefs were in active revolt against their own political civilian leadership.
April 5, 2026... Demanding the 25th Amendment During Active Combat:
Murphy publicly urged Trump’s cabinet to consult constitutional attorneys over Easter to remove the President under the 25th Amendment (Khabar-e Fori). IRGC channels broadcast this as evidence that the US command structure was undergoing a nervous breakdown.
April 7, 2026... Declaring “Total Surrender” in the Strait of Hormuz:
Following diplomatic exchanges, Murphy posted:
“If you accept even part of Iran’s statement, Donald Trump has agreed to cede control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran... Trump’s war on Iran ended in total surrender granting Iran control over the Strait of Hormuz.”
Exploitation:
They headlined the post: "هرمز به ایران رسید" (Hormuz Reached Iran), using an American senator to certify that Iran had won the battle for the Persian Gulf.
April 25–26, 2026... Sabotaging US Negotiators:
Murphy attacked US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as “inexperienced, in way over their heads,” and corrupted by financial ties to Middle Eastern dictators (Press TV). This destroyed the credibility and leverage of the US negotiating team in the eyes of Iranian diplomats.
Phase IV: The Grilling of Hegseth & Crowning Iran the Victor
May 12, 2026... Exposing the Pentagon’s False Damage Numbers:
In a televised Armed Services hearing, Murphy confronted Hegseth over Trump’s claims that 80% of Iran’s missile force was destroyed, citing internal reports showing only 30% had been degraded. Hegseth refused to confirm the numbers. They broadcast the cross-examination to mock Pentagon battle-damage assessments.
June 2, 2026... Interrogating Marco Rubio & Mojtaba Khamenei:
Murphy pressed Rubio in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee regarding the continued closure of Hormuz, forcing Rubio to disclose that newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was directly driving the negotiation process through secret written communications
June 18–23, 2026... “Iran Won and Trump Surrendered”:
When details of an interim agreement emerged, Murphy launched a scathing critique of the White House:
“This is a multibillion-dollar ransom to Iran for nothing... Iran won and Trump surrendered! We lost the war and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz we must pay huge money to Iran.”
Exploitation:
They made Murphy’s exact Persian translation ("ایران برنده شد و ترامپ تسلیم شد!") their central victory proclamation, declaring that the highest echelons of the US Senate had acknowledged Iran’s triumph.
August 9–15, 2026... The Final Retrospective:
An “Unwinnable Catastrophe”:
In the closing weeks of the summer archive, they closed their coverage of the war by quoting Murphy’s final summary:
“‘Trump has lost this war’... every day the fighting continues, the United States grows weaker while Iran grows stronger... leading to Washington’s biggest foreign policy disaster in more than two decades.”
Make dinner parties great again
In the 1950s and 1960s, tens of millions of women traded unpaid household-management jobs for salaried ones.
When women entered the workforce, they stopped entertaining and maintaining their villages.
Energy once spent on community went to work.
Women would feel more supported if that balance returned and we stopped striving for perfectly clean houses before inviting friends over.
A messy life filled with kids and chaos is a beautiful life.
My local data point for Democratic base enthusiasm is the Boomer burnouts holding signs on PCH in South Torrance on my way home from synagogue. Normally they have 15 or 20 people out there - today they had two. I’m sure the weather ain’t helping.
The American manufacturing base is too thin: we need to make not just systems here but components as well. Time to catch up, grow and reinvent
a16z.com/the-case-for-the-am…
Nathan Mintz retweeted
REPORT: “TSA announces plan to replace Air Marshalls with ordinary Israeli men.”
Nathan Mintz retweeted
Monday: Sydney Sweeney converts to Judaism
Tuesday: Mamdani combats antisemitism
Wednesday: A plane full of Israelis stop a terror attack on their own plane.
Damn, they might really be the Chosen people.
Nathan Mintz retweeted
When I lived in Tel Aviv when I was working in tech, a crazy man started yelling in Arabic in a supermarket
We later found out he was just mentally unwell, it wasn’t terrorism
But no one knew in that moment, and instead of running away, all the men ran INTO the supermarket
Those are the same types of men who were on the FlyDubai flight today
Those are the men of Israel
If you want to make Israelis and Jews at large unwelcome in your society, you can live with what it will become
a plane full of x men
A passenger on the Dubai–Tel Aviv flight recounts:
“We are currently in Saudi Arabia.
One of the crew members attacked the pilot with a knife and disabled the aircraft’s systems. Yaniv (pictured?) and another passenger stormed the cockpit and subdued the attacker.
Luckily, there were two more pilots on board. They were the ones who managed to land the plane.”
Well, yes. Overall, the probability that a plane full of Israelis will contain a trained assault team, two additional pilots, and, statistically, at least one cardiac surgeon, psychologist, lawyer, and diamond dealer is substantially higher than 50%.