Neil Howe

Great new book by Nicholas Tobias, The Monastery of the Damned: From the Ivy League to the French Foreign Legion. Amazon: amazon.com/Monastery-Damned-… Here is my blurb on the back cover.

Amazon just added THE FOURTH TURNING IS HERE to its Black Friday/Cyber Monday deals. Hardcover edition is discounted Nov 28–Dec 1. Perfect moment to pick up a copy.

Gen X vs. Millennial Investors. Full interview with @KeithMcCullough : demographyunplugged.com/p/in…

Well, I can officially cross “Jeopardy! clue” off my generational bingo card.

Trump's first 100 days have been unprecedented—even compared to FDR’s whirlwind start. Watch my FREE 60-minute webcast on what it all means: demographyunplugged.com/p/tr…

In January, we predicted that South Korea’s 2024 TFR would be around 0.74. The official reading just came in at 0.75. If you want accurate demographic analysis before it hits the mainstream media, subscribe to Demography Unplugged: demographyunplugged.com/p/by…

Last year, 26.1% of 10th graders reported consuming alcohol in the last 12 months. That’s a -4.5 percentage point decline YoY and a whopping -39.1 pp decline since 1997. My analysis: demographyunplugged.com/p/te…

The average age of first marriage for Trump states is 28.4, while the average age for Harris states is 30.3—a striking difference of 1.9 years. Full analysis: demographyunplugged.com/p/ch…

US life expectancy 2023: 78.4 Years While the 2023 figure rose almost a full year over 2022, it remains -0.4 years below the 2019 level. We are 3 years past the worst of the pandemic, yet life expectancy is no better than it was in 2009. My full analysis: demographyunplugged.com/p/by…

In the first half of 2021, traffic deaths spiked +17.5% YoY. While deaths have declined over the last three years, they remain +10.0% above pre-pandemic levels (2019). Full article: demographyunplugged.com/p/ar…

Malaysia: In 2023, Malaysia’s fertility rate (1.7) increased for the first time since 2014. But the increase may only be a temporary blip in the overall declining trend.

Australia: In 2023, Australia’s TFR hit 1.50, the lowest reading ever recorded. The TFR for foreign mothers (1.34) continues to be quite a bit lower than for native-born Australians (1.69).

UK: In 2023, England and Wales’s TFR hit 1.44. That’s the lowest reading ever recorded since the UK began tracking such data in 1938.

US: In Q2 2024, the total fertility rate for blacks and whites essentially converged (≈1.54). This is primarily due to a significant decline in fertility among black women. The high TFR among Hispanics is probably due to the Census underestimating the total Hispanic population.

Q4 2023 mortality rate was revised upward +2.2%. Now the CY 2023 rate stands at 750.4 deaths per 100K, still +4.9% above 2019 (715.2). We’re 3 years past the worst of the pandemic, yet the death rate is no better than it was in 2009. Full article: demographyunplugged.com/p/by…

A big thanks to @adamtaggart for having me on Thoughtful Money. We had a great discussion on the “Fourth Turning" and the fault lines that divide our society. If you liked the interview, check out my newsletter: demographyunplugged.com youtu.be/85g2FrR_7wo?si=MiAD…

Here is an excerpt from the piece:

(4/4) South Korea: In 2023, South Korea’s net migration significantly increased (+37.5% YoY) due to a large surge in migrant workers. The government increased the number of foreign worker visas from 88K to 110K, an all-time high.

(3/4) Germany: In May, we predicted that Germany’s 2023 TFR would decline (from 1.46 in 2022) to roughly 1.37. It turns out we were right: The official reading came in at 1.35.