HydroMetLLC (@HydroMetLLC) profile picture

Saving the world from biased and unreliable hydromet forecasts. Specializing in QPF, QPE and streamflow.

At the surface
Joined April 2021
#LakePowell has now seen its highest 60-day fall inflow volume since it opened. At ~2M acre-ft, we are approaching a typical, 60-day peak snowmelt volume. #cowx #nmwx #utwx #azwx #SuperElNino #coflood
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Stats from long-record streamflow gages of recent, incredible event in San Juans. Looks like October 1911 event still holds the #1 position at most sites. But, back-to-back Oct/Nov 2026 event volume is probably unparalleled in USGS era. #cowx #coflood #nmwx @CoyoteGulch @edmillard #ElNiño
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Back-to-back years w/incredible October rain in the San Juans. Both years were extremely unusual w/low snowpack & near-record low summer flows. Yet both had almost in-sync Oct. rainfall that has actually created a new (but subtle) Oct. peak in the long-term stats. #cowx #coflood
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Heavy rain fell near Conifer, CO yesterday afternoon. Several gauges caught over 3 inches in just over 1 hour. This is a 0.1% Annual Exceedance Prob. event ("1 in 1000yr") using Atlas 14. Note this is ~5 miles from another 0.1% event in Evergreen on 6/24. #cowx @NWSBoulder
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A rare, heavy rainstorm occurred near Evergreen, CO last night. Data from a Personal Weather Station, below, suggests a ~0.1% ("1 in 1000-yr") Annual Exceedance Probability event at the 1-hr duration and possibly ~0.01% at 2-hr. #cowx #coflood
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There's a 1-hour QPF of 5.6 inches in Colorado today from the RRFS FV3 system. Storm total amount of 9 inches. This would be a 1 in 10,000 year intensity. The FV3 core appears to have many issues w/QPF, so use caution given upcoming changes w/NCEP. #cowx
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Today in #cowx, almost all NWP showed a 10-30F bust in 2-m dewpoint temp at 6-hr lead time at DIA. Even at 1-2 hour lead time, there were consistent 5-10F busts. It's a hard-knock life as a met.
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Heavy rainfall moved through the Denver Metro this afternoon (Mon, Jun 1st). This @mhfdfws ALERT gauge in Aurora picked up 2.05 inches/30-minutes & 2.44 inches/1-hour. Both intensities are a 1% Annual Exceedance Probablity. #cowx #COflood #mhfdrain
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Re: "Rio Grande goes dry every year", kind of. Here's the 1896-2026 flow data at Otowi Bridge (sw of Taos). While the river frequently sees low flows, it's extremely rare 'til about late June. Plus, this year's daily avg peak is 831cfs, which is 20% below previous low. #nmwx
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Precipitation chances increase today after a week of drier #cowx. Heavier rainfall is possible over the Northeast Plains alongside a severe threat, while NW Colorado should see an extended period of PM precip.
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Just another day in #cowx with a 15 degree F range in dewpoint temperature guidance. At 6-hour lead time.
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Quick analysis of snow depth versus elevation shows near linear dependence until about 7-8k feet, beyond which snow depth decreased again. We often see that same elevation range emerge as the "winner" in heavy rainstorms too, such as the 2013 Front Range flood. #cowx
❄️❄️This late season winter storm brought significant snowfall to the region: The Denver metro averaged between 4 and 8 inches with the highest totals located on the south and west sides of the metro! The mountains saw 1 to 2 feet of snow with Estes Park recording over 30 inches!
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Some interesting guidance from our large CAMs wx model ensemble on today's #cowx and #wywx snow-storm. First, there's a very large gradient in "Precip hours" highlighting preferred terrain-dynamics combos. Second, probability of exceeding 1.5in liquid in 24 hours has distinct mesoscale bullseye in Cache La Poudre basin.
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Hey #cowx and #wxtwitter, we are searching for a summer intern (meteorologist) to help advance our hydro-meteorological forecast operations and other R&D projects. Check out the attached posting, and please share with others that may be interested!
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Plenty has been said about the incredibly low Colorado snowpack for early April. Most data has used the <45-year @USDA_NRCS SNOTEL record. Looking much further back at several >85-year SNOW COURSE sites reveals the same thing: unprecedented low values. #cowx
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If you are a meteorologist, hydrologist or just a casual weather/water geek, consider giving to the CoCoRaHS 2025 Year-End Fundraiser! It's one of the best volunteer-driven networks ever created with 1,000s of high quality measurements per day. #CoCoRaHS #cowx give.colostate.edu/cocorahs-…
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(1/3) The recent San Juan River flow at Pagosa Springs has been near unprecedented levels for October. This shows the 1935-present daily avg. data. The peak flow during this event was at least 5x higher than the snowpack-related peak earlier in the year. #cowx #coflood
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(2/3) The peak from the past storm was likely the highest since a major flood in 1911. However, the double peak nature of this storm is notable. Here's a USGS paper that discusses the 1911 event, which focused on the adjacent Animas River. #cowx #coflood co.water.usgs.gov/projects/C…
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(3/3) The driver of this recent event was moisture of subtropical origin that spiked Precipitable Water (PW) levels far beyond anything measured over past ~70 years in Oct. This shows the estimated Denver PW, which was on the fringe of the main moisture surge. #cowx #coflood
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