Geopolitical Intelligence & Early Warnings • Regional Security & Global Terrorism •
Israel
Joined September 2019
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People asked why I didn't cite the Channel 14 election poll.
Last night hours after the vote ended, ch. 14 predicted 62 seats for Netanyahu bloc with Lieberman not passing the threshold.
In reality, Netanyahu got 53-55, Lieberman got 7. That was the worst poll, not even close 👇
Election update:
Netanyahu bloc down to 53
Eisenkot bloc down to 48
Still waiting for soldiers' votes to get final numbers.
Eisenkot will likely get first shot at forming a government, according to media reports.
If he fails, Netanyahu will get a chance.
After 77% of votes counted:
Netanyahu bloc 54
Eisenkot 49
Arab parties 17
As I tried to explain here, early vote count didn't matter much. Netanyahu was at 59 this morning 👇
Here's the election bottom line:
Netanyahu suffered a serious setback but not a clear defeat.
His coalition dropped from 68 seats to 50+. He lost his majority and can't form a coalition.
Bibi can aim for a unity govt or a new election if Eisenkot fails to form a coalition.
If you're following the partial vote count of the Israeli election, be aware that votes counted so far are not a representative sample.
For example, many more votes counted in Jerusalem than in Tel Aviv. So far, more votes counted in traditionally pro-Netanyahu areas.
What the updated exit polls mean:
-Netanyahu bloc can't form a government, it's too small.
-The opposition can only form a government with some support from Arab parties.
Without a game-changing move it's either some form of unity government or new election.
Exit polls revised at night giving Netanyahu bloc 52-51 seats, still far from majority. But Eisenkot bloc is down to 51-49, making it very hard to form a government. These numbers make unity government a bit more likely.
Meanwhile over 30% of votes counted.
Another big election story in Israel: Hard right Minister Itamar Ben Gvir with only 6 seats according to exit polls. Very weak showing for him. He may never be a minister again, likely to be left out of future government dominated by the center-right.
My prediction based on exit polls and initial indications: Gadi Eisenkot will be Israel's next PM, possibly forming a minority government.
Confused about Israel's election results? I'm doing a Q&A session for the next 20 minutes or so. Ask anything!
Looks like my initial prediction was accurate: Netanyahu was not in good shape.
Soon comes my next prediction: Israel's next PM and government
Political analysts estimate: Eisenkot will receive the mandate to form Israel's next government, following setback by Netanyahu bloc.
This will be a challenge, as there's no clear majority for Eisenkot bloc.
Based on exit polls, Netanyahu has no chance to form a government.
Eisenkot Bloc: 52-53 seats
Netanyahu Bloc: Around 50 seats
Arab Parties: 17-18
*According to exit polls
❗️Israel elections: Netanyahu's Likud is the largest party at 24-25 seats, at the expense of his bloc.
Netanyahu coalition suffers major blow with only 50 seats or so according to exit polls.
Looks like Netanyahu bloc drops significantly from 64 seats. Question is whether opposition can form a government. Netanyahu very likely can't.
Israel election update:
-Extremely high turnout rate.
-Anti-Netanyahu bloc going very strong.
-Bibi camp gaining strength in recent hours.
-Pollsters hint at surprises.
Big drama tonight, exit polls in 40 minutes.