Content and analysis at @PoolGenius and @TeamRankings. Otherwise busy with four kids.
Blue Springs, MO
Joined August 2009
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Add it all up, and I had 36% as my pre-kickoff projection for Dallas in Circa, but I would lean over, despite the strategic considerations, because I think the single entries likely broke heavy Dallas over 50%.
Also some "all in" players with Dallas who liikely shoved.
Across all contests I am in where I can see pick rates on Dallas, the 38% in the World Championship was THE LOWEST of any pool. Median was 45% and several went over 50%, including those with higher concentrations of single entries.
The Dallas loss had the biggest impact on single entries remaining, with over 55% breaking to Dallas in the Splash Survivor World Championship.
Plus, a subset of the largest portfolios that went heavy Dallas and paid the price.
2) Circa's holiday pick week, and Dallas at home on Thanksgiving, should theoretically cause more to save them for that week because of contest dynamics, not present in Splash, and spread ownership out.
But
Jason Lisk retweeted
🚨 NEW: Survivor Entry Values
What is a live Survivor entry actually worth?
Our new Entry Values tool simulates the rest of the season and the entire pool thousands of times to estimate:
• Fair value
• Chance to win
• Typical payout if it wins
• Key teams remaining
• Toughest weeks ahead
• Best paths for survival and expected value
Now available for Circa Survivor and the Splash Survivor World Championship
Circa:
🔗 poolgenius.teamrankings.com/…
Splash:
🔗 poolgenius.teamrankings.com/…
Jason Lisk retweeted
When we look at back at the Circa winner entries, which group of teams will appear on the most winners for the Week 5 pick?
47%Dallas Cowboys
16%Bengals, Lions, or Jags
37%Texans + All Others
135 votes • Final results Jason Lisk retweeted
I don't workpost a ton, but I really like the new Splash/Circa leaderboards that @JasonLisk & I made.
Splash: poolgenius.teamrankings.com/…
Circa: poolgenius.teamrankings.com/…
I had a ton of fun w/ the analysis, and it was challenge to get good enough sims to run in a short enough time.
It’s been a wild start through just four weeks in the NFL. We have already had:
1) a team score 59 points in a game
2) a team gain 27 more first downs and 335 more yards than an opponent
3 a team win 3 games with 3 different starting QBs
How often different types of Splash World Championship entries picked Arizona:
Previously used at least one bottom-12 future value (FV) team to advance (primarily NYJ/CAR/NYG): 6.8%
Hadn't used a bottom-12 FV team, but used LV or PIT in Week 1: 2.3%
All other entries: 1.7%
Jason Lisk retweeted
The Jets ran 32 offensive plays to Chicago’s 89 today.
That’s the second worst ratio in a single game in NFL history, behind only the expansion Browns first game back in 1999 against the Steelers (28 to 90). (H/T @Stathead)
Jason Lisk retweeted
🐬 The Miami Dolphins are CRUSHING NFL Survivor Future Value in 2026
@JasonLisk explains why nobody has a high Future Value rating this year 🧵
On this week's #circasurvivor Circa show, I talk with @CrushemSports about his all-in strategy, and look at a week where Minnesota and Baltimore should dominate the contest picks youtube.com/watch?v=efIv0y3i…
Now we wait to see where he lands on Saturday.
On this week's #circasurvivor show, I am joined by @audavidb and we talk through Chiefs, Packers, and other options on Sunday, as well as a lot of strategy and projection thoughts
youtube.com/watch?v=5rEvVGRt…
Single-entry players got crushed in #CircaSurvivor with Tampa Bay, as there was a definite pattern on who went heavy where, based on portfolio size.
🤖 Made with AI
ALT Week 2 picks on Tampa Bay, San Francisco, LA Chargers, and Philadelphia in Circa Survivor, based on portfolio size entering week.
There are 8 other contestants who had 10 entries alive and picked two or more teams in Week 2, and won with all. Team Bubba (4 different teams picked) threaded the needle with 4 different winners.
There are 5 other diversifiers who need the Rams to get 10 entries through.