Executive director, @JQASociety. Coauthor of a book assessing war with Iran. Cohost of @securitydpod. Non praevalebunt. (Personal acct.)
Washington, DC
Joined April 2013
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IMO, two things right, and one wrong, here.
Right:
1. We are likely to have ongoing, serious problems and disagreements with Iran.
2. U.S. policy choices can manage issues, but are unlikely to solve them.
Wrong: the "wrong side of history" point. This is a poor basis for thinking about prospective revolutions. If the regime is overthrown, the new government will have many needs and will come knocking. We will have huge leverage and will likely prove an invaluable partner. (Witness our relationship with Syria!) This might not fully drown out revolutionaries' frustrations, but even then, it is not bad if a new Iran sees Israel as the only country that helped with overthrow, because Iran-Israel friendship would serve U.S. interests.
If the regime is partially overthrown, the result may be civil war. This would have negative knock-on geopolitical impacts in the Middle East and Europe. You would also see pressures to intervene in the civil war (again, see Syria).
If the regime isn't overthrown, you're not on the wrong side of history.
NEW COLUMN: All Democrats want to do if they gain power in the midterms is pull the US out of the Iran war. Are they risking being on the wrong side of history? politico.com/news/magazine/2…
Many there see this as part of a string of incidents that seem to be setting the table for a renewed Iran war.
Baghdad Suspects Israel Targeted Chinese Air Defense Systems Held by Iraqi Factions aawsat.news/4yr2p
Baghdad Suspects Israel Targeted Chinese Air Defense Systems Held by Iraqi Factions aawsat.news/4yr2p
It remains wild that one of Edmund Husserl’s doctoral advisees is a canonized saint. Yet at the same time not: she encountered the best of European philosophy of the day, and yet sought still more.
John Allen Gay retweeted
A patron of Europe, A Catholic Saint, a significant philosopher, and a victim of unchecked anti-Jewish sentiment that swept Europe 80 years ago.
St Teresa Benedicta of the Cross: pray for us.
2011: We need cheap lawnmower planes to provide affordable ground attack for counterinsurgency
2025: We need cheap lawnmower planes to shoot down drones
John Allen Gay retweeted
Ukrainian forces have strapped a pair of R-73 IR guided air-to-air missiles on a Czech-built Z-37T Agro Turbo, creating a cropduster fighter.
The platform is primarily a low-cost drone hunter.
Imagine the eyeball prints you could put on some PLA glasses if you borrowed one of these things and “happened” to be photographed driving around in India
This quoted post is unavailable.
Underappreciated Trump II phenomenon: the administration has repeatedly promoted the idea that the president makes peace.
John Allen Gay retweeted
Why is Trump spending a big chunk of his Friday meeting with the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia? Two reasons:
1. Zangezur corridor with US involvement is another blow to Iran, a sign that it's getting pushed out of the Caucasus just as it's been pushed out of the Levant.
Unless there’s something behind the scenes, this plan is going to fall apart in phase four
BREAKING: Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu tells @BillHemmer ‘We intend to’ control all of Gaza, but adds, ‘We don’t want to keep it.’ Wants Arab forces to take over after Hamas is removed from power.
John Allen Gay retweeted
Hezbollah ministers and their Shi'ite allies walked out of Lebanon’s cabinet meeting on Thursday in protest at talks on disarming the Iran-backed group, Reuters reported citing three unnamed political sources. The move followed a cabinet request for the army to draft a plan to to establish a state monopoly on weapons, a move Hezbollah opposes, the report added.
John Allen Gay retweeted
“Under a carefully negotiated section…Armenia plans to award the US exclusive special development rights for an extended period on a transit corridor that will be named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity—known by the acronym TRIPP”
reuters.com/world/us-secures…
I often wonder if Hamlet has, proportioned to length, a greater influence on the English language than the King James Bible. Sure seems canonical!
It will be wonderful if this works
The government’s momentous decision to place all weapons exclusively under state authority by the end of the year was, above all, a response to the aspirations of the Lebanese people.
To them, and to the Arab and international communities, our message is clear: This decision is final and resolute; there is no turning back.
The Washington Post comment section - usually VERY anti-Trump - is arguing this was overdue.
MAKING DC SAFE AGAIN: ‘At Trump’s order, agencies have stepped up law enforcement in DC’ washingtonpost.com/politics/…
