British & Irish politics professor, Univ. of Liverpool. Views mine NOT Univ’s. Retweets/likes NOT endorsements: made me think/laugh. [email protected]
Joined November 2011
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Jon Tonge retweeted
It's been the long goodbye, but Carla Lockhart will quit the DUP early next week. She's its youngest MP with its biggest majority. She will join forces with Jim Allister - even if not joining his party. Double trouble lies ahead for the DUP.
belfasttelegraph.co.uk/comme…
Jon Tonge retweeted
DUP confirms:
✖️No more joint FM / dFM engagements.
✖️Will block Michelle O’Neill attending any events as First Minister
✖️Blocked a meeting with President Connolly and with Prime Minister
✖️Will block FM from attending Cenotaph on Remembrance Sunday
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwly…
Jon Tonge retweeted
Deputy First Minister @little_pengelly formally writes to First Minister @moneillsf & Head of Civil Service.
“I am explicitly and formally withholding my consent…for Michelle O’Neill to travel to Glasgow or participate in events in her official capacity as First Minister.”
Jon Tonge retweeted
DUP MP @carlalockhart has published a lengthy statement on her Facebook page.
She ends by saying if the party tries to “carve out a halfway house approach and to gaslight those who trusted us , I simply can no longer be party to that, and I will take my own course.”
Jon Tonge retweeted
For anyone interested in the full summary of this morning's judgement on the Garvaghy parade you can read Mr Justice Scoffield's ruling here 👉 judiciaryni.uk/files/judicia…
Jon Tonge retweeted
Our projection on the latest @moreincommonuk poll for the NI Assembly
☘️ SF — 29
🦁 DUP — 20
🔷 UUP — 12
🤝 AP — 9
🌹 SDLP — 9
Ⓣ TUV — 7
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 2
Jon Tonge retweeted
2/ Where the public stands on Drumcree
53% say the Secretary of State was right to block the parade. Nationalist and Alliance voters overwhelmingly support the Secretary of State’s decision (91% of SF voters, 84% of SDLP voters and 81% of Alliance voters say it was the right decision); most unionist voters disagree. 85% of TUV voters, 76% of DUP voters and 55% of UUP voters say the Secretary of State’s decision to block the parade on the Garvaghy Road was wrong. Protestants as a whole are more divided (54% wrong, 28% right).
53% say the Parades Commission was wrong to allow the parade down the Garvaghy Road in the first place. 87% of Sinn Féin voters, 75% of SDLP voters and 74% of Alliance voters say the Parades Commission determination was wrong. DUP and TUV voters take the opposite view with 73% and 74% respectively saying the Parades Commission determination was the right one. UUP voters are split with 46% saying it was the right decision and 39% saying it was the wrong decision by the Parades Commission.
• • 38% sympathise more with the Garvaghy Road residents, 21% with the Portadown Orangemen, and 41% do not pick a side (choosing both equally, neither or don’t know). Among Protestants, more do not take a side (44%) than back the Orangemen (42%).
Jon Tonge retweeted
The first test of public opinion since the #Drumcree dispute.
@Moreincommon_ poll
Sinn Féin 30% (+5)
DUP 18% (+1)
UUP 13% (nc)
TUV 11% (–1)
Alliance 9% (–2)
SDLP 9% (nc)
Ind / Others: 4% (-1)
Green 3% (-1)
People Before Profit 1% (-1)
Aontú 1% (nc)
(+/- changes since July)
Jon Tonge retweeted
The BelTel Podcast | The Upper Bann MP Carla Lockhart has been to the forefront of NI politics ever since the re-emergence of the Drumcree Parade issue.
But who is Carla Lockhart? And what are her options if she left the DUP?
tinyurl.com/mbhzvxru
Jon Tonge retweeted
Despite her senior colleagues downplaying the chances of Carla Lockhart leaving, she appears to be preparing to walk over Drumcree. Almost a decade ago, her party had 10 MPs. It now has half that number. And if 5 becomes 4, the DUP enters the danger zone.
belfasttelegraph.co.uk/comme…
Jon Tonge retweeted
NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos
📊Labour on 32% with a lead of +8 – the largest Labour lead Ipsos have recorded this parliament
📊Conservatives take second place the first time since June 2025
📊Reform UK down 3 points and Greens down 5
Jon Tonge retweeted
DUP MP Carla Lockhart has quit her position as a party officer. The Upper Bann politician’s resignation could be the start of a chain of events leading to her resignation from the DUP.
✍️: @SuzyJourno
belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/…
Jon Tonge retweeted
We've added new shadings for each party in all our maps, here you can see where our Nowcast thinks the NI parties will get their votes in May.
SF, DUP, AP, UUP
Delighted to launch @JohnDoyleDCU’s new book ‘Before the Vote: Planning for a United Ireland’ at the Political Studies Association of Ireland conf at University College Cork. The book is not so much an argument for unity as the need to plan for its possibility/probability #PSAI26
NI SOS @RhonddaBryant “I sometimes think the veneer of peace is remarkably thin”. Nonetheless, optimistic re power-sharing: “the Executive is much more resilient than some people suggest”.
Jon Tonge retweeted
‼️ Labour HOLD Holborn and St Pancras
Labour: 45.0% (-3.9)
Green: 32.7% (+22.3)
Conservative: 7.0% (-0.2)
Reform: 5.9% (-0.2)
Liberal Democrats: 3.4% (-2.4)
Restore: 2.5% (+2.5)
Workers: 1.1% (+1.1)
Jon Tonge retweeted
Pledges from Kemi Badenoch:
* Halve NICs for under 25s to help young people get work
*Half of spending cuts will go on cutting deficit
*Defence spending - including Britannia Shield
*50,000 new prison places
Jon Tonge retweeted
🚨 WATCH: Kemi Badenoch accuses Reform UK of debating "whether my mixed race children are English"
"I don't want to explain to my son when we're watching our brilliant English team play football that some people don't think that black players are English"
Jon Tonge retweeted
For election reform needs; how different uk electoral systems would transform party competition. theguardian.com/politics/ng-…
