Founder & reigning monarch at TPM. Lapsed historian. Hand tool woodworker. ✡️ (Sign up for The Backchannel https://nitter.cf/t.co/GpsQ8cC6vk)
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Josh Marshall retweeted
lol you're lost in your own conspiracy theory like someone who can't find their way out of a paper bag
Josh Marshall retweeted
Jewish congressman-elect Daniel Biss accused the ADL of trafficking in fear and intimidation after the group questioned his record on antisemitism following his election victory.
jpost.com/american-politics/…
Josh Marshall retweeted
I feel its only responsible to acknowledge that Ken Paxton, Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick were actually among the most gracious in defeat last night. I will admit, I did not expect it and they proved me wrong.
Josh Marshall retweeted
After suspending my campaign for US Senate, I relaunched my state PAC to support 16 candidates running for state House and state Senate. Today, it took me a solid 30 minutes to text ALL of them congratulations.
100% win rate. And a Democratic trifecta.
amoreperfectmichigan.com/
Josh Marshall retweeted
Democrats had clear turnout advantages in 2026 when viewed at a county level. Looking within states (to control for state-to-state diffs), turnout relative to 2024 was 3.9 points below average in the Trumpiest counties and 6.7 points above average in the top Harris counties.
Josh Marshall retweeted
Deep South - US Senate popular vote
2008:🔴R+9.2
2014: 🔴R+23.9
2020:🔴R+11.3
2026:🔵D+6.4
The broader idea makes sense. But not the timing. By the time that Gracie Mansion meeting happened Trump was become like Mamdani's number one fan. It had been going on for months. It really was the weirdest thing. Because it was also obvious that was supposed to be the plan.
NEW
The Wall Street Journal reports that Republicans had planned on making New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani the face of the Democratic Party in an effort to paint Democrats as out of touch.
That plan was upended when Trump accepted Mamdani’s invitation to meet at Gracie Mansion.
House Republicans were “apoplectic,” and Speaker Mike Johnson later called the meeting an unforced error.
Full Story: on.wsj.com/4sFnWdQ
Josh Marshall retweeted
every couple days for the last few weeks I've watched this for like a hundred times straight.
The comments in response
In 2008 Republicans had 178 seats in the House. 41 seats in the Senate. Lost the popular vote by 10,000,000 and the electoral college 365 to 173. Writers were writing books like “The Death of Conservatism: A Movement and Its Consequences”
Two years later they picked up 63 congressional seats, 6 senate seats. Gained 679 legislative seats, control of 20 chambers, 6 governorships, and 11 trifectas.
The point of this is that what happened yesterday, has happened before, and years from now will happen again. Political landscapes change in a heart beat. Political coalitions will align and realign, you win some, you lose some. Two years from now can look drastically different from yesterday.
Josh Marshall retweeted
NBC News: Senator-elect James Talarico says he would vote to abolish the filibuster
"I believe that the majority has the right to govern in this country."
Link to article: nbcnews.com/video/shorts/tal…
The Best MAGA Midterm Crashouts, Ranked talkingpointsmemo.com/news/t… via @TPM
a few look at how much, which way, how consistently
How Much Did Polls Underestimate Democrats? A First Measure … talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog…
oh dear
Mr. Vice-President,
Please allow me to present a different perspective.
The problem was not the Iran War. It was the cease fire.
If you start a war, you need to win it and finish it – otherwise don’t start it.
This war should have been over six months ago, with the Strait of Hormuz wide open and oil flowing. The second and third tiers of Iranian leadership should have been destroyed, and we should have supported the pro-western forces who could have taken leadership. We stood on the brink of a new, more peaceful Middle East - and then we blinked. We had a chance not only to deny Iran nuclear weapons, but to get rid of the world’s biggest supporter of terrorism.
Instead, we had a cease fire, which was followed by months of will we or won’t we finish the job. Every day was a different message. There still is. Is the war over? Is it about to begin? No one knows. There is confusion and inconsistency.
In June 2025, America was not involved. This was an Israel vs Iran issue.
No one forced the United States to attack Iran then, or in February of 2026. It was a decision made by President Trump. In my opinion, it was the right decision.
Once the decision was made, we should not have stopped until the regime fell. But instead, you negotiated a cease fire that didn’t last, didn’t work and left us in no man’s land, with higher prices and our troops still deployed.
Our troops could have been home, the Navy returned to its bases, a peaceful regime in place , new alliances forged, and gas prices below $3.00 a gallon.
No, Mr. Vice President. It’s not the war. It’s the so-called cease fire.
Aside from the cope and silliness, there's actually a serious point here. In a way the ceasefire was the problem, inasmuch as Trump couldn't get a rapid victory and the whole thing has dragged on for months keeping gas and diesel prices high, getting the country bogged down in an on-again, off-again more. If Trump had been able to have a military success and leave he probably wouldn't have paid any political price at all.
But this misses the point entirely. They mostly agreed to a ceasefire because in the first days of the conflict Iran checkmated the US, establishing far more deterrence against the US than the US had against Iran. Donald Trump was never willing to mount a full scale invasion of Iran. Too much money. Too many dead Americans. But short of that truly crazy possibility the US had no way to prevent Iran from harrying ships in the Strait of Hormuz and driving a global energy and inflation crisis that threatened Trump's midterm prospects and the whole global economy.
The simple fact is that Trump lost the war in the first days if not the first few hours because he gave almost no thought to what he was trying to accomplish and what Iran could do to counter him. But he wasn't will to take the truly insane step of invading Iran or admitting his defeat. For the last eight months the US has been caught in this web of Trump's denial. They did the ceasefire because they lost. And they weren't willing to admit their defeat. To avoid the ceasefire, avoid defeat. And to avoid defeat almost certainly avoid going to war.
Josh Marshall retweeted
💥With moves lifted directly from the playbooks of the darkest régimes, Netanyahu is actively engaged in a coup d'État: Denying certified election results, threatening violence, inciting constantly against minorities & taking advantage of Israel's secret services. Its the worst constitutional crisis yet. haaretz.com/israel-news/elec…
Josh Marshall retweeted
Connecticut Republicans are on extinction alert in the state Senate, where they could lose all but 2 or 3 seats (they currently have 11).
