Luke Johnson 🇺🇸

🚨 🗳️ "The moment of truth is here": Harry Enten's FINAL Midterms Predictions 10/30: 🚀 Dem House: 92%. HOUSE: 237 D / 198 R Dem Senate: 71%. SENATE: 52 D / 48 GOP. Trump Net Approval: -24. Congress Approval: 14%. Trump Approval on Inflation: -52. Dem Congressional Ballot Lead: +9. Governors: 83% D Majority. youtube.com/watch?v=Wur9BVrX…

🚨 🗳️ BREAKING: FINAL NY TIMES POLL: Democrats Show Strength in Final Days of Race for the Senate, New Polls Find: The final Times/Siena polls of the campaign find Democrats ahead in all seven of the states likeliest to decide the Senate. The newfound Democratic strength was powered by growing trust in the party to handle the economy — the key motivating issue for voters this year. Democrats hold a nine-point advantage on the cost of living across the battlegrounds, and they led on this crucial measure in every single state. Democrats are up in Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Maine and Ohio, have an edge in Alaska and are effectively tied with Republicans in Iowa, new New York Times/Siena polls found. nytimes.com/2026/11/01/us/po… By Shane Goldmacher and Ruth Igielnik Nov. 1, 2026, 7:53 p.m. ET Democrats are ahead of Republicans in almost all of the seven battleground states that will determine which party controls the Senate, according to the final set of polls from The New York Times and Siena University before the midterm elections. The surveys found that Democrats hold sizable leads in Texas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, and Kansas, which has not elected one since 1932. To win a Senate majority, Democrats need to defend all the seats they currently hold and flip at least four seats that are currently held by Republicans. It has been seen as an uphill battle because many of the seats they need to win are in Republican strongholds. But the new polls found Democratic candidates ahead in five states that now have Republican senators and effectively tied in a sixth. They hold leads in Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas and a narrow edge in Alaska. They are effectively tied in Iowa. In Michigan, the lone top Senate battleground already held by Democrats, the poll found the Democratic candidate leading by double digits. (It was conducted before a Democratic feud erupted in Michigan this weekend.) The surveys did not include North Carolina, where polls have long found the Democrat leading and Republicans have pared back their campaign spending. Dissatisfaction with President Trump and frustration over his management of the economy are dragging down Republicans, according to the polls. Just 38 percent of likely voters approved of the president’s job performance in the seven states in the poll, a strikingly low figure given that Mr. Trump had won five of the states by double digits just two years ago. The newfound Democratic strength was powered by growing trust in the party to handle the economy — the key motivating issue for voters this year. Democrats hold a nine-point advantage on the cost of living across the battlegrounds, and they led on this crucial measure in every single state. If the polls are accurate and these trends hold, Democrats would win control of the Senate. But there were some reasons for Democratic concern: There are still some undecided voters, and voters who decided only in the last month favored Republicans by a nine-point margin. In the Senate race in Texas, James Talarico, a Democratic state legislator, held a seven-point edge over Ken Paxton, the Republican state attorney general, 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. Mr. Paxton had the worst image of any candidate included in the survey — by far. In Maine, Senator Susan Collins, the last remaining Republican senator in New England, is trailing in her re-election campaign behind Troy Jackson, a Democratic former state senator. Mr. Jackson leads 51 percent to 45 percent among likely voters. Polls are imperfect. Six years ago, Ms. Collins had trailed in every survey before the election — and she still won re-election comfortably. But the new polls revealed a series of flashing warning signs for Republicans — about both their candidates and the broader political environment. In every state but Maine, the Democratic Senate candidate was viewed more favorably than the Republican candidate. And likely voters were unhappy with the leadership of Mr. Trump across the board, and said that they believed Democrats would do a better job handling the cost of living and foreign wars and doing what is best for ordinary people. Mr. Trump has been barnstorming Republican states in a bid to re-energize his base in the final weeks before Election Day, but the polls suggest that enthusiasm for the president is slipping even within his party. In Ohio, where 82 percent of Republicans approve of the president, the share who approve “strongly” has fallen to 51 percent, down from 63 percent in June. And in a Times/Siena poll last week, the Senate race was tied in heavily Republican South Carolina. One key advantage for Democratic candidates is that they are leading with independent voters in every state surveyed. That includes Iowa, where Josh Turek, a Democratic state legislator, was effectively tied with Representative Ashley Hinson, the Republican nominee. The polls found that the Democratic resurgence was powered by a renewed strength among younger voters and Latinos, as well as the relative weakness Republicans have among the party’s base of white, working-class voters. Mr. Trump had made gains among Latino and younger voters in 2024. But this year, his party’s Senate candidates were winning only about one-quarter of younger voters and Latino voters. Crumbling trust in Republicans on the economy — and in Mr. Trump in particular — helps to explain how Democrats are competitive in a state like Kansas. Mr. Trump won Kansas by the widest margin of any of the seven states polled, and the state has not elected a Democratic senator for nearly a century. But diesel prices that rose after the Iran war, and the administration’s decision to drop import tariffs on foreign beef, have dismayed farmers. Adam Hamilton, the Democratic nominee and the pastor of the largest church in the state, leads Senator Roger Marshall, the Republican incumbent, 49 percent to 44 percent. Mr. Hamilton also the support of 13 percent of Republicans, including James Gerety, 52, a retired National Guardsman living in Meriden, Kan., who said that he saw Mr. Hamilton as “a lot more genuine” than Mr. Marshall. “I had reservations at first, with him being a pastor,” said Mr. Gerety, a registered Republican who considers himself more of an independent. “I get squirrelly with religion being brought into politics. But Hamilton is trying to lower prices, to get us out of this war with Iran. He’s trying to bring inflation down.” Mr. Marshall has also faced criticism after The New York Times reported that he sued patients for unpaid medical debt, leading to arrests in some cases. The Times previously polled all seven states in September. The Democrats improved in six of the states in the final poll (Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas) and lost ground in only one (Alaska). White working-class voters have been the backbone of Mr. Trump’s coalition. In 2024, he won an estimated 74 percent of white voters without college degrees, according to exit polls. Now, in these seven states, Republicans were winning just 56 percent of these voters. Blue-collar white voters have proved particularly hard to reach in polls, and polling error has previously been among the highest in that demographic, a large group in all seven states. In Michigan, the lone Senate seat in the survey currently held by a Democrat, the poll showed Dr. Abdul El-Sayed ahead by a wide 11 percentage points over Mike Rogers, a Republican former congressman, who narrowly lost a Senate run in 2024. Dr. El-Sayed, who has relished political combat in a way few other Democrats do, has performed especially well with men, a group that historically tilts Republican. He is running roughly even with the group, an improvement from September. But in the Democratic primary, polls overestimated Dr. El-Sayed’s strength. And he has been embroiled in a bitter public feud with his primary rival, Representative Haley Stevens, who endorsed Mr. Rogers on Sunday in a rare cross-partisan embrace that has given Republicans hope. Still, Dr. El-Sayed is ahead by a wide margin on every issue in the poll, including immigration, a traditional Republican strength. In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, leads Senator Jon Husted, a Republican, 49 percent to 44 percent in a race that has drawn half a billion dollars in spending, with Republicans spending $80 million more on ads, according to AdImpact, the ad-tracking service. In Maine, Mr. Jackson, the Democratic challenger, has improved his image since September, though he is still seen unfavorably overall. Critically, he is running in the most Democratic state on the battleground map, and he remains much more popular than Mr. Trump. In Texas, 49 percent of likely voters view Mr. Talarico favorably, while 39 percent view him unfavorably, giving him a 10-point-edge on favorability despite an enormous, very negative ad campaign against him funded chiefly by Elon Musk, the world’s richest person. Mr. Paxton, Mr. Talarico’s G.O.P. opponent, has seen his image decline in recent months. Fifty-four percent of likely voters there now view him unfavorably, while only 33 percent view him favorably. Rey Gonzales, a 62-year-old Republican living in Houston, said that he had been troubled by the allegations that led to Mr. Paxton’s impeachment and by reports that he had been unfaithful in his marriage. Mr. Gonzales, who says he voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 and 2020 but did not vote in 2024, says he plans to support Mr. Talarico purely out of dislike for Mr. Paxton. When asked what he liked about Mr. Talarico, his answer was succinct: “Nothing.” In Alaska, Mary Peltola, the former Democratic congresswoman challenging Senator Dan Sullivan, has faced criticism after a New York Times investigation found political operatives aligned with her recruited another candidate, Dan J. Sullivan, to run as a Republican in the race to try to pull votes away from the Republican incumbent. The poll was mostly completed before the release of the story. Even so, Ms. Peltola was the only Democrat in this set of polls to lose ground since an earlier Times/Siena poll. The poll found her with a narrow edge over Mr. Sullivan, 48 percent to 46 percent. Sophia June contributed reporting. Shane Goldmacher is a Times national political correspondent.

🚨🗳️#DarlineGraham: It's an honor to be a US Senator. Not only is she unqualified, she doesn't want the job! WTF! Come on South Carolina, read this story. This is ridiculous. #VOTE Then they asked her if she was angry at her brother for “putting you in this situation.” Ms. Graham laughed. “When I get to heaven one day,” she said, “I am just going to choke Lindsey.” Gift article: nytimes.com/2026/10/30/us/da… Darline Graham Is ‘a Little Nervous.’ Can She Keep South Carolina’s Senate Seat Red? Polls show the sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham in a virtual tie with her Democratic opponent, Dr. Annie Andrews. An upset was unthinkable just a few months ago. By Emily Davies Oct. 30, 2026 Senator Darline Graham was mingling with supporters at a campaign event in South Carolina on Tuesday night when one of them tapped her shoulder and said: “Don’t lose the Senate.” She turned around and replied, “I’m trying real hard not to.” Then, inside a ballroom in Aiken, S.C., Ms. Graham continued, mostly to herself: “Man, I’m so tired. Six more days. I can do it.” If she was trying to convince herself, Ms. Graham also has some work to do convincing others. A political novice who was thrust onto the national stage in July after the death of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, Ms. Graham has found herself in a difficult spot in deep-red South Carolina as election season draws to a close. Appointed to complete the final months of her brother’s tenure, she is now seeking a full six-year term while also learning in real time how to govern — and how to campaign. She has stumbled at both. She flubbed a question about foreign policy in a televised debate, and has largely avoided questions from reporters when she’s at work in Washington. One of the Republicans she defeated in the primary, Representative Ralph Norman, has only reluctantly agreed to back her. Some of his supporters have started a write-in campaign on his behalf. Many others in the party have expressed concerns about her qualifications for the job. All of it has led to a final, nail-biting week of campaigning at a time when Ms. Graham, still grieving her brother, is effectively tied with her Democratic challenger, Dr. Annie Andrews, according to a new New York Times/Siena poll. Ms. Graham’s struggles have raised the possibility of what seemed unthinkable to Democrats and Republicans alike just a few months ago: a Democratic pickup in one of the nation’s most conservative states. “I know there’s some people out there who are thinking, ‘Well, you know, it’s a red state, we’ve got it,’” Ms. Graham said at the event in Aiken. “Not this time. It’s close. The polls have me a little nervous.” There are plenty of forces that could help push Ms. Graham to victory on Tuesday. A popular Republican candidate for governor, the state attorney general Alan Wilson, is attracting enthusiastic crowds. He could provide strong coattails for Ms. Graham on Election Day, especially because South Carolina voters will have the option of tapping a single button to choose a straight-party ticket. In 2024, roughly 31 percent of South Carolina voters cast ballots for a straight Republican ticket, while 20 percent did so for Democrats, according to data from the state’s Election Commission. Then there is the matter of polling, which in 2020 placed Ms. Graham’s brother in a virtual tie with his Democratic opponent. Mr. Graham went on to win re-election by 10 percentage points. This year’s surveys could be misleading, too. The Times survey found that 51 percent of voters in the polls, including 18 percent of Republicans, believed that Ms. Graham did not have the “right experience to be an effective senator.” Voters said their primary reason for backing her was to support the Republican Party. “Ladies and gentleman, Senator Lindsey Graham!” said the man introducing Ms. Graham inside the ballroom in Aiken on Tuesday. Dozens of people eating roasted chicken and vegetables put down their forks and chuckled as the senator made her way to the lectern. “Don’t worry about that,” she said to the crowd of local Republicans, who had known her brother well. “That’s a compliment.” Toward the end of her speech, Ms. Graham appeared to make a rare break from her standard address. “I actually love the job,” she said of her brief time in the Senate. “The campaign?” she said. “That’s a different story.” Before July, Ms. Graham’s most high-profile job was leading a state agency for blind residents, where she was respected by her staff and known for her high standards. With the exception of occasionally supporting her brother, who never married, in a role akin to that of a political spouse, she mostly stayed away from politics. Friends and former co-workers have said in interviews that they had never heard her discuss her views on politics or policy issues. Still, she inherited her brother’s complicated relationship with the state’s Republican base. By the time of Mr. Graham’s death, he was facing criticism from the far right for being too soft on immigration and flak from traditional Republicans for aligning too closely with President Trump. Scott Douglas, a 55-year-old Amazon delivery driver, said he became a resident of South Carolina to vote against Mr. Graham and his stances on immigration. He backed Mr. Norman in the primary and runoff elections. Mr. Douglas said he remains nervous that Ms. Graham might not prove to be as conservative as she says she is, especially once Mr. Trump leaves the White House. But he planned to cast his final ballot for her, albeit reluctantly, to avoid sending a Democrat to the Senate, he said. At a recent rally at a livestock facility in Clemson, S.C., Mr. Douglas approached the senator as she made her way to her seat. “Please do us well,” he said to her, shaking her hand. “Please do what we expect.” “I will,” Ms. Graham said. “I will.” Some of the headwinds in the race have been out of Ms. Graham’s control. Others, such as her loyalty to Mr. Trump, represent her own political calculations. The president endorsed Ms. Graham in a contentious primary and has campaigned heavily on her behalf at a time when his approval ratings are sagging. She has remained an eager supporter, even after Mr. Trump exempted Russia from a sanctions law that was championed by and named after her brother. Mr. Trump won the state by more than 17 points in 2024. This cycle, Dr. Andrews, a pediatrician, has out-raised and outspent Ms. Graham. On Thursday, the top super PAC for Senate Democrats said it was pouring $750,000 into the race, its first investment in the state and a sign of the party’s increasing optimism. To turn the tide, Mr. Trump visited South Carolina on Thursday for a second time in eight days. Ms. Graham, who got off to a slow start in the general election while her opponent blanketed the state, is in the midst of her most aggressive barnstorm to date. She has appeared at pubs and on right-wing talk shows, leaning into the issues most popular with the G.O.P. base. She has also repeatedly stressed that she is becoming “very informed” on national security in the three months since she told voters during a live debate that she was “not that informed” on the issue. This week, she kicked off her travel in Myrtle Beach, S.C. a laid-back coastal town that has boomed in population with the type of firebrand conservatives who helped propel Mr. Trump to the White House. A roster of Republican officials and candidates joined her at an event hosted by Representative Russell Fry, a Republican who had challenged Ms. Graham in the primary this summer. She sat a table in the front of the room with her hair pulled back in a clip. “There were hurt feelings, we all know that,” Mr. Wilson said of the Senate primary this summer. “But here’s the reality,” he said of Ms. Graham. “This is the only option.” On Wednesday morning, Ms. Graham arrived in the ultraconservative region known as the Upstate for breakfast at a local Republican club. It was about a half-hour away from where she grew up with her brother, in the back of a bar that their parents had owned. It was also one the regions of the state where her support has been weakest, the Times poll found. Organizers had staged the event in one of the club’s smaller rooms, said Nate Leupp, the head of the Fourth District Republican Club. In past cycles, candidates have filled a space twice the size, he said. While attendees ate mini muffins and bacon, Ms. Graham sat at the front of the room conducting an interview with conservative radio hosts. They asked her if she would disagree with Mr. Trump if it was in the interest of South Carolina residents. They asked why conservatives were no longer as focused on a balanced budget as they used to be. They pressed her to give a detailed opinion about the war in Iran. Then they asked her if she was angry at her brother for “putting you in this situation.” Ms. Graham laughed. “When I get to heaven one day,” she said, “I am just going to choke Lindsey.” Emily Davies is a political correspondent for The New York Times. A version of this article appears in print on , Section A, Page 15 of the New York edition with the headline: Graham’s Sister Tries to Find Footing in Final Days of Senate Campaign.

🚨 ⚖️ MY FULL INVESTIGATION OF DONNA ARTHUR, AMY ACTON'S MOM, AND WHY NOW? Full investigation into Donna Arthur, Amy Acton’s mother: 1978 rape indictment, 1974 incest case, her own criminal & financial record, and the 2021 animal neglect file where kittens died in a 120°F car. She hadn’t seen Amy in nearly 50 years. The documents are the story. Part I: Cledith Arthur’s 1978 rape indictment of 12-year-old Amy Acton: nitter.cf/LukeAnalysis/status/21… Part II: Before Amy, "Bud" Arthur was indicted for incest with his biological daughter: nitter.cf/LukeAnalysis/status/21… Part III: Donna Arthur's criminal records including theft, evictions and bankruptcy: nitter.cf/LukeAnalysis/status/21… Part IV: Donna Arthur's animal cruelty conviction, the full court file: nitter.cf/LukeAnalysis/status/21… Please share this post so people learn the true story of the consequences of Vivek Ramaswamy's outrageous actions. More about Part I: Amy Acton’s stepfather was arrested and indicted for the rape of 12-year-old Amy. Her mother Donna fled with him. The full 38-page Mahoning County court file is in the thread. More about Part II: Cledith Arthur was indicted for incest with his own 16-year-old daughter in 1974. The sheriff could not find him. Donna later married him and brought Amy into the house. The full 40-page Trumbull County file is in the thread. More about Part III: Donna Arthur’s own record after she fled. Theft and bad-check convictions in the 1990s. A Chapter 7 bankruptcy in 2011. A 2025 eviction. And the audio of her describing 12-year-old Amy coming out of the grand jury “dressed up… almost like a little prostitute.” More about Part IV: The full Centre County, PA file, for the 1st time on X. Donna Arthur was cited for leaving cats and kittens in a locked, filthy vehicle that hit ~120°F. One passed away. Guilty finding. WHY NOW? THE 2020 INTERVIEW, THE MONEY, AND THE 48-YEAR SILENCE. Donna Arthur has not seen or spoken to Dr. Amy Acton or her brother since 1978. That is nearly 50 years. She fled Ohio with the man indicted for raping her daughter and stayed with him until he died. She has no recent personal knowledge of the events she later described. In June 2020, while Amy was Ohio Health Director, Donna gave a phone interview to Cheryl Sullenger of Operation Rescue. The piece was published June 3. Amy resigned on June 11. In that interview Donna repeated claims that Amy had lied about the childhood abuse, that the family was never homeless or without food, and that Amy came out of the grand jury “dressed up… almost like a little prostitute.” Those same themes later appeared in the 2026 campaign ad. Operation Rescue is an anti-abortion outlet. Sullenger was convicted in 1988 of conspiracy to bomb an abortion clinic and served federal time. The 2020 interview was framed around Amy’s COVID role. Whether Donna shared those views, was sought out because of them, or both, is not established in the public record. What is established is that she had no contact with her children for decades and then resurfaced to attack the daughter she left behind. The financial record runs through the same period. Donna has prior theft and bad-check convictions (1995–1997), a 2011 Chapter 7 bankruptcy, multiple landlord-tenant losses, and a 2025 eviction judgment in Cumberland County. The animal-neglect case itself noted she was living in a vehicle with the cats. The campaign says it did not pay her for the ad. Even if that statement is accurate, payment can be routed through a friend or third party. The public record does not prove a payment. It does show a woman under repeated financial pressure who gave two high-profile interviews attacking a daughter she had not seen in nearly half a century. The core credibility problem is simple: Donna had no recent knowledge. The 1974 and 1978 indictments, the flight, the 48-year estrangement, the animal-neglect file, and the financial judgments are all public. They do not depend on her memory of events she did not witness. The documents are the story. The rest is inference. And we were happy to see this story today: "Controversial Ramaswamy ad with Acton’s mother off the air": thehill.com/homenews/campaig… Whether because Vivek’s polling is taking a dive and threatening to drag the entire Ohio GOP ticket down with him, or because figures like Mike DeWine told him days ago to take it down, or because of public pressure and reporting like ours that highlighted how cruel and vile it was to force Amy Acton and her family to keep reliving her stepfather’s despicable acts, we are glad the ad is off the air. Voters need to show politicians that there is a line of decency that should not be crossed. Those who cross it should be punished at the ballot box. --Luke Johnson, #LukeCrew @LukeAnalysis #LukeCrew #AnimalNeglect #AnimalCruelty #DonnaArthur #VivekAd #ActonAd #AmyActon #OHGov #OHPol #VivekRamaswamy #BuyMeACoffee #SupportJournalism #SupportIndependentJournalists #Investigation #InvestigativeJournalism #Election #OhioElection #Midterms #AnimalNeglectStatute #CledithArthur #NolleProsequi #Eviction #Bankruptcy #Theft

🚨 💸 Trump on Kim Jong-un: "We fell in love. He wrote me beautiful letters." Meanwhile, North Korea just pulled off the biggest crypto heist ever: $6.3B. Why do you love this communist criminal dictator? "How North Korea perfected the crypto heist": axios.com/2026/10/31/north-k… The world's biggest crypto heist is the latest feat by North Korean hackers who have spent years perfecting an arsenal of financial theft, social engineering and sophisticated cyberattacks. The suspected North Korean hackers behind the $6.3 billion Binance theft appear to have combined familiar hacking tactics with extraordinary speed and automation — raising fresh questions about how AI could supercharge their already sophisticated operation. Donald Trump on North Korea's Kim Jong Un: Rally, Wheeling, WV 9/29/2018: "I was really being tough. And so was he. And we'd go back and forth. And then we fell in love. OK? No, really. He wrote me beautiful letters. And they're great letters. We fell in love."

⚖️ Who's behind the new bogus James Talarico Fling story? It ran on Townhall. And the chief strategist? Why it's our old pal Brad Parscale, who ended up ripping Trump off for millions. 1. Salem Media Group (via subsidiary Townhall Media). 2. Brad Parscale. 3. Midland, Texas.

🔥 📺 #VOTE WATCH: Howard raged in NETWORK: "All I know is that first you've got to get mad! You've got to say I'm a human being goddamn it! My life has value! Yell, I'm as mad as hell and I'm not going to take this anymore!". Send a message to politicians. No excuses. #VOTE!