Marek Naczyk

Excited to share our article just out in @BJPolS #OpenAccess. The first meta-analysis of the evidence of a causal association between economic #insecurity and #populism provides a definite answer confirming that economic insecurity is a robust cause. @ManuSeral @alexdmoise @DrMcNamara @davidstuckler @GUQatar doi.org/10.1017/S00071234240… The literature on populism is divided on the causes. Several recent narrative reviews report weak association at best. Although we found significant heterogeneity in several dimensions, all studies reported a significant causal association. A recurrent magnitude was that economic insecurity explained around one-third of recent surges in populism. We statistically tested for publication bias and found significant evidence of it. However, the causal association between economic insecurity and populism remains significant after controlling for it. Economic insecurity seems particularly relevant for explaining right-wing populism, while the results for left-wing populism appear more ambiguous. Altogether, the existing scholarship presents enough evidence to conclusively disperse any doubts about the causal role of economic insecurity in the populist backlash against globalization. Denying the role of economic insecurity is a position that cannot be defended. Of course, this does not mean that cultural factors are not important. Culture can mediate the role of economic shocks or might even be an independent primary cause. But juxtaposing economy and culture is less productive than exploring their interactions. The literature search took place early/mid 2022, which means we could not cover some new studies. We do cover, though, everything we found in the three biggest academic databases and on Google Scholar. Feedback, comments, or questions are welcome! Might be of interest to @LeoBaccini @mcopelov @SteWalter @VenturiniMiri @CharlotteCavai1 @matthewpurdy123 @thmskrr @RachelNavarre @fetzert @SattlersThomas @hvm1 @PStanig @SJWeymouth @martinmckee @cmicmeissner @AlganYann @davidautor @timvlandas @halikiopoulou @CihanTugal @MSnegovaya @CasMudde @Jacob_S_Hacker @NoamGidron @ILLSP_GWU doi.org/10.1017/S00071234240… – at Cambridge, MA