$JSESOL - Sasol This one is interesting as it did R60m EBITDA on Ave. oil price around $74 - producing an EPS in the R40-50 a share. With oil around $90 + for longer than expected this scenario moves EBITDA to R75bn- 80bn and EPS to R60 -R70! Over $100-110 oil , we get to the R90-R100bn EBITDA mark and we closer to R100 EPS ( roughly). The point is simple if they not overly aggressive on their hedging this company will spew cash . The Dividend policy is 30% of Free Cash flow once Debt is Below $3bn ( $3,3bn at last report)! In these bumper years they can wipe out large Debt , normalise the Balance Sheet and resume healthy Dividends. I’m using a very static ZAR assumption around R16,50. I’m assuming some very rough calculations but I don’t think they going to have outsized Capex needs and my inputs are subject to change. But SOL should earn R60-65 a share this year! Depending on down-time or disruptions at Secunda / ORYX etc. I’ve never been a big fan of Sasol due to so many moving parts but the reality is we have a new “ supply disruption “ and though prices can drop I think a new low is In due to tensions. Restock of reserves Is one to watch. But I’m also watching Chinas adoption away from Oil and Diesel, their diesel demand is dropping 5-10% annually due to EV Adoption and most of their Energy-is converted via Coal. Infact solar as an Energy source overtook coal this year. So I’m not married to the trade I just think it’s a safe place to put some money for abit longer. Technicals ( My main thesis ) - Are all flashing buy - stock holds over 8 ema and in a bullish break out pattern tha can open up a move to R280 -320 a share! DYOR