I spent the last 15 months on the campaign trail across Michigan. I personally drove over 70,000 miles and visited every single county in this state.
I attended Trump rallies and NAACP meetings. I walked parade routes and ran volunteer nights. I studied the poll numbers, the results from message testing, and the polling on what voters actually care about.
I saw a lot of great people across the state working their butts off to get Republicans elected. And funny enough, most of those volunteers were boomers. The chronically online doomers want to blame the boomers in the party, when it was the boomers who did the vast majority of the volunteering while the “future of the party” sat around whining online.
I also saw a lot of people run their mouths before the convention and primaries, talk a lot of trash about Republican candidates, and then go into hiding after their preferred candidates had the snot beaten out of them by the GOP electorate.
I saw the Michigan College Republicans organize and carry out the largest volunteer deployment we’ll probably ever see, with no help from these so-called “party leaders.” (And no, I’m not talking about the MIGOP here.) They put their time, sweat, energy and money into supporting our candidates while self proclaimed leaders and wannabe leaders were no where to be found. The college and young republicans should remember which of their peers showed up to that, and which ones didn’t.
I watched several statewide campaigns that were horribly underfunded, through no fault of their own, receive no help from our party’s established “influencer” core. Frankly, if those people ever reached out, it was to insult us or yell at us about something we were doing, never once offering real advice or help. Never once did they offer to use their followings to help build name recognition, instead they either went silent or continued to bad mouth other candidates.
The people I see online talking the most about how everyone did something wrong, how they’re so much smarter than everyone else, and how they have grandiose ideas to fix the Republican Party’s problems are predominantly the latter, not the former.
Hate to break it to some of you, but posting on X and spending your days chatting with your friends in Signal groups doesn’t contribute to Republicans winning elections.
Rant over. Thanks for reading, and a reminder that those of us who were actually on the ground know and will remember who was out there with us.
Oh look the liars and frauds actually ended up being liars and frauds
The comments on Tom’s post reflect why republicans keep losing.
If you act like a decent human being and focus on real issues, and don’t feed the doomers online hate filled rhetoric and anger, they’ll start attacking you and do their best to get republican voters to stay home.
Every swing state/ district Republican that lost by less than 10% needs to file and immediately start campaigning. Bouchard, Barrett and Huizenga should either work to find their replacement or begin campaigning January second.
The Dems will not waste time making stupid decisions. Don’t waste time by not calling them out and fundraising.
#PA10
FEC: Defeated Rep. Scott Perry (R) files paperwork to run again in 2028 against Janelle Stelson.
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Nic Lloyd retweeted
Democrat voters are now calling for new Democratic leadership to release the Epstein files.
Nic Lloyd retweeted
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Nic Lloyd retweeted
To everyone fuming at @haleyforMI endorsing @mikerogersforMI: Hurt people hurt people.
Nic Lloyd retweeted
Lansing, South Lyon, Livonia, and Gibraltar. We have a state to save, and I’m going to do everything I can to help us get there!
Nic Lloyd retweeted
Hunters, anglers, and anyone else who shares a love for Michigan and its natural resources, you need to get out and vote. An estimated 400,000 hunters and anglers didn’t vote in 2024. There’s no excuse this year!
Early voting started today and runs through Sunday, November 1. Get out, vote for sportsmen like myself, and make sure you have a voice in Lansing that cares about our outdoors.
Nic Lloyd retweeted
Keep trying to run Will. You won’t escape accountability. Why did you promote and campaign with a child rapist, why won’t you tell us what you knew and when you knew it.
