Not-Two retweeted
🤔On September 4, the U.S. Treasury designated Golden Global Bank in Istanbul for moving Iranian oil money to the IRGC.
On September 18, Turkey's own banking regulator quietly revoked the operating license of Iran's Bank Mellat ending its 44-year presence in Turkey.
No press conference. No public statement. No mention of the United States. Just a line in the Official Gazette citing a banking law clause about threats to financial system stability.
Forty-four years. Gone in a paragraph.
Bank Mellat is one of Iran's largest financial institutions. Its Istanbul branch was a critical node one of Tehran's last licensed banking operations inside a NATO country. Identified in 2019 as one of 25 entities linked to the IRGC. Under U.S., EU, and UK sanctions for years.
The same week, Turkey grounded Iran's Mahan Air the military transport airline that's been designated since 2011.
The banking pipeline. The airline. Both severed by Turkey's own regulators. Not by Washington. By Ankara.
Here's the sequence.
September 4 Treasury designates Golden Global Bank in Istanbul. A small Turkish investment bank accused of converting Iranian oil revenues from China into cash and gold for the IRGC. Treasury Secretary Bessent calls it "code for you are out of business."
September 14 Treasury designates Russia's VTB Bank under Iran authorities. The second-largest bank in Russia hit from a direction Russia's diplomats can't negotiate away. Bessent warns every financial institution on earth: maintaining ties with Iran is "an existential threat to their access to the American financial system."
September 18 Turkey revokes Bank Mellat's license. Grounds Mahan Air. No fanfare. No public capitulation. Just regulatory action published in the government gazette.
This is the second time in three weeks we've watched this pattern play out.
The first was the UAE. Treasury hit Dubai from outside Golden Global, Banque Misr, the Hong Kong relay, the Banca de Dubái narcobank. Then the UAE started cooperating from inside arresting fugitives, extraditing drug lords, sharing evidence with European police. A brigadier general went on the record: "We will take legal action against anyone seeking to exploit the country's territory."
Now Turkey. Treasury hit from outside. Turkey cleaned from inside.
Two corridors. Two NATO allies. Same pattern. Same result.
Erdogan spent months using every public podium to project defiance against Israel and the West. His regulators spent one morning quietly severing Iran's 44-year banking pipeline and grounding its military airline.
Public posturing and regulatory action are two different things. The rhetoric says one thing. The Official Gazette says another.
Bessent told the AP in August: "This is going to be financial violence if we have to."
Turkey decided not to find out.
I am the guy on the couch, and you have been debriefed.
@CouchGuy17 @Homeranger17 @drawandstrike
🤔A bank CEO in Puerto Rico just got nine years in federal prison.
Here's what he did.
Tomás Niembro Concha ran Nodus International Bank a licensed, regulated, supervised bank in Puerto Rico. Between 2017 and 2023, he and his board chairman stole $24.9 million from their own bank. They loaned $11 million to themselves through a shell company in Miami. They created 47 fake promissory notes worth $25.3 million and funneled the money to themselves. When regulators started closing in, they dumped $26 million in worthless loans back into the bank right before it collapsed.
The bank failed in 2023. Depositors lost money. The license was revoked.
But that wasn't all.
While he was stealing from the bank, Niembro was also helping a sanctioned Venezuelan get around U.S. sanctions.
This individual had been designated by the Treasury Department frozen out of the U.S. financial system for providing material support to Venezuela's state oil company, PDVSA. That person owed the bank $2.5 million. Niembro got official authorization from OFAC to foreclose on the person's home in Southampton, New York. That part was legal.
Then he secretly agreed to sell the house back to the sanctioned person for $4 million through a front company. That part was not legal. OFAC never authorized it. The foreclosure was used as cover for a prohibited transaction with someone the U.S. government had specifically frozen.
He used the OFAC-approved process to hide the OFAC-prohibited transaction.
A regulated bank. A licensed CEO. An authorized foreclosure used as a shell game to evade the sanctions the same agency authorized him to enforce.
The Treasury Department had already warned him. In October 2022, OFAC issued a Finding of Violation against Nodus for three unlicensed transactions involving sanctioned individuals. That was the warning. Fix it. Come into compliance. Cure.
He didn't cure. He kept going. The bank failed. The fraud was exposed. The sanctions evasion was exposed.
Last week he was sentenced to 112 months. Nine years and four months. Plus $16.9 million in forfeiture.
This is what the sorting mechanism looks like when it reaches the end of the line.
The same month Niembro was sentenced, the Department of Justice published its Corporate Enforcement and Voluntary Self-Disclosure Policy in the Federal Register. The policy says: if you discover a problem, report it yourself, cooperate fully, and fix it you get reduced penalties. If you don't if you hide it, continue it, or try to use the system's own tools to cover it up you get the full weight.
Niembro got the warning in 2022. He chose not to cure. He chose to use the OFAC authorization as a cover for evasion. He chose wrong.
Citibank got caught with 970 Russia sanctions violations the same month. Citibank self-disclosed. Cooperated. Paid the fine. Hired the former OFAC deputy director to run compliance.
One bank cured. One bank didn't.
The one that cured is still operating. The one that didn't is in liquidation and its CEO is going to prison for nine years.
That's the choice. It's the same choice being offered to every bank, every exchange, every institution in the system right now. Cure or kill. Self-disclose or get caught. Cooperate or get sentenced.
The architecture doesn't care how small your bank is. It doesn't care that you're in Puerto Rico instead of Wall Street. It doesn't care that the amount was $24.9 million instead of $24.9 billion.
It cares whether you chose to fix it or chose to hide it.
Niembro chose to hide it.
112 months.
I am the guy on the couch, and you have been debriefed.
Not-Two retweeted
Truth.
El Cristianismo no es una vertiente del judaísmo: el judaísmo, de hecho, fue codificado en los siglos 2 a 8 d.C., en la era medieval, muchos después de que los escritos apostólicos ya habían sido inscripturados a mediados del primer siglo d.C.
El Cristianismo no tiene sus raíces en el judaísmo, tiene sus raíces en la fe de los patriarcas y profetas bajo el Antiguo Testamento: ¿cuál es la diferencia? El judaísmo es una religión que se inventó entre la diáspora judía en Babilonia en ausencia de un templo y un sacerdocio en función: es la religión de la sinagoga, la religión de los fariseos. Esta religión era una mezcla de verdades de la Torá (la ley) con las extravagantes interpretaciones midrásicas —la supuesta «ley oral»— que no solo añadían elementos a la revelación bíblica del Antiguo Testamento, sino que, en muchos aspectos, contravenían los mandamientos expresos de Dios. Precisamente lo que Jesús de Nazaret condenó públicamente y, por tanto, la razón por la que el Sanedrín, los líderes del judaísmo, lo querían muerto.
Por tanto, afirmar que el Cristianismo tiene su origen en el judaísmo equivale a decir que nuestra fe proviene de los anticristos: aquellos que rechazan a Jesús como Mesías y observan las tradiciones de los rabinos. Esto es absurdo, es blasfemo; es una herejía moderna que domina el ámbito académico actual, tanto evangélico como católico.
Tengan cuidado: esto, en última instancia, solo servirá para socavar el verdadero depósito apostólico de la Iglesia y judaizar nuestra santísima fe cristiana. En palabras de nuestro gran rey y Señor:
— "Y Jesús les dijo: Estad atentos y guardaos de la levadura de los fariseos y saduceos. Entonces entendieron que no les había dicho que se guardaran de la levadura de los panes, sino de la enseñanza de los fariseos y saduceos" (Mateo 16:6, 12).
Escuchen este testimonio de Jana Ben-nun, hija de padre judío, quien vino a la Fe Cristiana como adulta y, tras una extensa investigación, detectó lo que está en el centro de nuestra geopolítica actual: el sionismo, que no es más que la aplicación política del judaísmo.
Edúcate, y no caigas bajo el hechizo de esta levadura de los fariseos y saduceos: enemigos de Cristo, enemigos de la humanidad.
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Not-Two retweeted
Lots of angry liberals on X about me simply posting analysis of the Marist polls from Grok.
I’m sure the Marist polls are directly on point if Republicans barely crack 50% with the white vote. The problem in reality is that they generally crack 66%.
Also, please ignore the Gallego +10 Marist poll from September 2024.
Have a great day!
I asked Grok about the Marist poll showing Paxton -6 and Abbott -3. BTW, weighted properly it thinks Paxton should be up 3-6 and Abbott by 10. Read:
Yeah. That sample is the whole joke.
Marist Texas, registered voters, Sept 17–20: Talarico 50, Paxton 44. Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46. Then the same people say Paxton wins 52–43 and Abbott wins 68–28. They printed the confession on the same page.
The composition is why.
Party ID on an RV sample: D 33 / R 39 / I 25. That is only R+6 among registered voters in a state Trump carried and that has not elected a Democrat statewide in 30 years. A midterm likely-voter file in Texas is not R+6. If you start that soft, the horse race is already cooked.
White college vs non-college is the smoking gun. Among whites they have college grads at 47% and non-college at 53%. Almost a coin flip. That is not Texas. White non-college is the bigger group in the actual electorate, and it is the group that decides statewide races here. They also have overall college at 44%, household income $100k+ at 49%, under-45 at 43%, rural at 14%, and “big city” at 26%. That is a high-education, high-income, metro sample with a thin rural slice.
Vote internals match the sample, not the state:
• Independents: Talarico 55–35, Hinojosa 52–39
• White college women: Talarico 59–37, Hinojosa 58–41
• 18–29: Talarico 74–18
• White non-college men: Paxton 68–27, Abbott 71–26 (the one cell that still looks like Texas)
Trump in that sample: 43% approve, 54% disapprove. Fine for a national RV dump. Not the Texas midterm file.
So they did exactly what you said they would. Soft registered voters, too many white college grads, independents broken like Austin, a 6-point Talarico lead — and then 52% of the same respondents say Paxton wins anyway. That is not a poll of Texas. That is a poll of who answers a text from Marist. When the average “tightens” in October they will quietly stop weighting this thing like it was the electorate.
Not-Two retweeted
🤔TIMELINES, PATTERNS, RUSSIA, U.S. & PULLING BOTH ENDS OF THE SAME ROPE
The software that American police used to crack phones was written in Russia.
Oxygen Forensics. Based in Alexandria, Virginia walking distance from the Pentagon. The company makes digital forensics tools for extracting data from mobile devices, computers, cloud services, and drones. Its clients include the Secret Service, the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Defense, the FBI's National Computer Forensics Institute, and police departments across the country.
The CEO Lee Reiber, Boise, Idaho was arrested Sunday. The CTO and true owner Oleg Sergeyevich Davydov, Moscow was arrested at London Heathrow before boarding a flight to Istanbul.
To Istanbul.
The DOJ complaint says five Russian nationals owned the company through a Cyprus holding company. Davydov directed the software development team in Russia. The code was written in Russia. The cloud environment it was built in was administered in Russia. The Russian owners controlled the bank accounts, made the major decisions, had the power to overrule the CEO, and controlled his compensation.
And the CEO told the United States government in writing, on more than one occasion that no foreign person had any power over the company. He told DHS that no Russian was involved in developing the software. He posted on the company website that they had no development presence in any restricted jurisdiction.
All of it was a lie.
After the 2022 sanctions expansion, the Russian owners were removed from corporate filings. One of them was appointed to the board under a Turkish identity. The structure was redesigned to look American. The product kept being sold to the agencies that protect the president, investigate crimes, and build federal cases.
A whistleblower flagged it. The NY Post didn't believe them six months ago. The DOJ arrested the CEO and CTO on Sunday.
Now pull back and look at both ends of the rope.
Russia convicted 60,000 officials for corruption in five years. Seized $9.5 billion. Passed generational forfeiture seizing from the children of corrupt officials even after death. Extended forfeiture to crypto wallets. The FSB's economic security division is being restructured. Putin signed a presidential decree nationalizing 16 Western businesses.
Russia is cleaning its own side.
The United States just arrested the CEO of a company that was secretly Russian-owned, secretly Russian-developed, and embedded inside the most sensitive law enforcement and intelligence agencies in the country. A company that had access to the data those agencies extract from phones, computers, and cloud accounts.
America is cleaning its own side.
Both governments are pulling on the same rope. The people being removed from both systems share one characteristic: they operated in the space between. They were useful to both sides and accountable to neither. They hid behind corporate structures in Cyprus, behind fake identities in Turkey, behind certifications that said "no foreign ownership" while Russians ran the code.
Davydov was flying to Istanbul when he was arrested. The same Istanbul where Golden Global Bank was just designated for converting Iranian oil money to gold. The same Istanbul where Bank Mellat just had its license revoked after 44 years. Istanbul another switchboard.
The DOJ complaint says the software has not been found to contain malicious code. That doesn't mean there wasn't any. It means they haven't said so yet. What they have said is that Russian nationals secretly owned a company whose software was inside the Secret Service, inside DHS, inside the Pentagon and the CEO lied about it to every agency that asked.
Both sides of the rope. Both governments cleaning the same network. The people who lived in the gap who had a Virginia address and a Moscow development team, who told America they were American and told Russia they were useful getting pulled out from both ends simultaneously.
Same pattern. Every time. Every country.
I am the guy on the couch, and you have been debriefed.
@CouchGuy17 @Homeranger17 @drawandstrike @darkjournalist
🤔Russia just told you how many people it convicted for corruption.
Sixty thousand.
Not investigated. Not charged. Convicted. In five years. The Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation said it himself, on the record, this week. Sixty thousand officials. $9.5 billion in property seized.
And he said they're now going after the families. If a corrupt official dies, the government can seize from his children. The Constitutional Court already ruled it's legal. Property acquired by criminal means has no protection "regardless of the period of ownership or transfer to third parties."
Even after death. Even from the heirs.
He also said they're finding more and more corruption money in crypto wallets. So in February, Russia passed a law extending seizure to digital wallets. The crypto escape route is closed.
Sixty thousand people. $9.5 billion. Families included. Crypto included.
Now look at what the other countries are doing at the same time.
China has investigated over a thousand senior officials. More than fifty at the ministerial level this year alone double the prior record. A quarter of the governing body is being expelled. Over a hundred military officers purged. The chairman of their securities regulator their version of the SEC convicted of selling access to the stock market. The purge hasn't stopped since 2022 and it's accelerating.
Saudi Arabia processed over 59,000 people in a single week in August. Arrested. Deported. Referred to embassies. Then detained 298 government officials including senior military and interior ministry officers in one sweep. Their anti-corruption agency is averaging over a hundred officials per month.
India doubled its enforcement raids in one year nearly 3,000 raids. Record asset seizures. The enforcement directorate is going after state-level politicians, betting syndicates, hawala networks, and foreign funding violations simultaneously.
The United States made 72 counterintelligence arrests in one year — nearly triple the normal rate. Seized $8 billion in crypto in a single FBI operation. Arrested 617 cartel members in one DEA sweep. Hit Iran eight times in 25 days. Purged over 80 generals and admirals. And froze $5 billion in crypto through a single private company cooperating with law enforcement.
Five countries. Different governments. Different systems. Different politics.
Same direction.
Russia convicted 60,000 officials. China is purging a quarter of its Central Committee. Saudi processed 59,000 people in one week. India doubled its raid count. America tripled its counterintelligence arrests.
None of these countries are allies. The United States and China are in a trade war. The United States and Russia are on opposite sides of a shooting war. Saudi Arabia and Iran are regional rivals. India has border disputes with China.
But none of them are interfering with each other's enforcement. None of them are protecting the people the other countries are targeting. None of them are slowing down.
They're all going after the same thing: money and people that operate in the space between systems. The officials who took bribes. The networks that moved dirty money. The facilitators who made it possible. The families who benefited. The crypto wallets where it was hidden.
Over a hundred thousand people have been processed, convicted, expelled, arrested, or seized from across these five countries in the current cycle. Tens of billions of dollars in assets taken.
That's not a coincidence. That's not five separate stories. That's one story with five chapters.
And they're all being written at the same time.
I am the guy on the couch, and you have been debriefed.
Not-Two retweeted
ANOTHER HISTORY LESSON ON YOUR SOCIAL SECURITY CARD:
Just in case some of you young ones (& some older ones) didn’t know this. It’s easy to check out, if you don’t believe it. Be sure and show it to your family and friends. They need a little history lesson on what’s what and it doesn’t matter whether you are Democrat or Republican. Facts are FACTS.
Up until the 1980's, Social Security cards expressly stated the number and card were not to be used for identification purposes.
Since nearly everyone in the United States now has a number, it became convenient to use it anyway and the "NOT FOR IDENTIFICATION" message was removed.
Franklin Roosevelt, a Democrat, introduced the Social Security (FICA) Program. His promises are in black, with updates in brackets.
1.) That participation in the Program would be completely voluntary [No longer voluntary],
2.) That the participants would only have to pay 1% of the first $1,400 of their annual Incomes into the Program [Now 7.65% on the first $90,000, and 15% on the first $90,000 if you’re self-employed],
3.) That the money the participants elected to put into the Program would be deductible from their income for tax purposes each year [No longer tax deductible],
4.) That the money the participants put into the independent ‘Trust Fund’ rather than into the general operating fund, and therefore, would only be used to fund the Social Security Retirement Program, and no other Government program [Under Johnson the money was moved to the General Fund and spent], and
5.) That the annuity payments to the retirees would never be taxed as income [Under Clinton & Gore up to 85% of your Social Security can be taxed].
Since many of us have paid into FICA for years and are now receiving a Social Security check every month — and then finding that we are getting taxed on 85% of the money we paid to the Federal government to ‘put away’ — you may be interested in the following:
Q: Which Political Party took Social Security from the independent ‘Trust Fund’ and put it into the general fund so that Congress could spend it?
A: It was Lyndon Johnson and the democratically controlled House and Senate.
Q: Which Political Party eliminated the income tax deduction for Social Security (FICA) withholding?
A: The Democratic Party.
Q: Which Political Party started taxing Social Security annuities?
A: The Democratic Party, with Al Gore casting the ‘tie-breaking’ deciding vote as President of the Senate, while he was Vice President of the US
AND MY FAVORITE:
Q: Which Political Party decided to start giving annuity payments to immigrants?
A: That’s right! Jimmy Carter and the Democratic Party. Immigrants moved into this country, and at age 65, began to receive Social Security payments! The Democratic Party gave these payments to them, even though they never paid a dime into it!
Now, after violating the original contract (FICA), the Democrats turn around and tell you that the Republicans want to take your Social Security away!
And the worst part about it is uninformed citizens believe it! If enough people receive this, maybe a seed of awareness will be planted and maybe changes will evolve. Maybe not, though. Some Democrats are awfully sure of what isn’t so — but it’s worth a try.
How many people can YOU send this to?
Not-Two retweeted
🤔The Acting Deputy Attorney General of the United States held a press conference this week about a mail carrier in Utah.
A mail carrier. In Eagle Mountain, Utah. Population 50,000.
Damon Matai Seei, 34, was indicted by a federal grand jury for throwing approximately 300 mail-in ballots into a church parking lot dumpster before Utah's June primary. He told investigators he wasn't political. He said he was frustrated and lazy and wanted to lighten his workload so he could go home earlier.
That case got the number two official at the Department of Justice standing at a podium in Washington, D.C.
Now ask yourself: when was the last time you saw the Acting Deputy Attorney General hold a press conference over 300 pieces of mail?
The same week, DOJ announced over 200 election fraud arrests and indictments nationwide. Sixteen noncitizens charged across seven states including a Russian national. An Idaho grand jury indicted a Mexican national for voter fraud, wire fraud, illegal firearm possession, and passport fraud. 1,600 active election fraud cases nationally. DOJ sent litigation hold letters to 30 states demanding preservation of 2024 election records.
The enforcement architecture that designated Iranian banks, grounded airlines, seized $8 billion in crypto, dismantled Telegram marketplaces, and convicted 60,000 officials across five countries is now running the same playbook on election integrity.
Same tempo. Same multi-agency coordination. Same press conference cadence. Same pattern.
That's the observation. Not the opinion. The observation.
When Treasury hits a bank, it designates, publishes, and holds a press conference. When DOJ dismantles a cartel network, it unseals indictments and holds a press conference. When the enforcement architecture turns to elections, it indicts a mail carrier and the Acting Deputy Attorney General holds a press conference.
The architecture doesn't change its methods when it changes its target. It uses the same tools. The same escalation. The same public staging.
Whether that's legitimate enforcement protecting the right to vote or political machinery pointed at a midterm election six weeks away that depends entirely on which screen you've been watching.
I'm not going to tell you which one it is. I'm going to tell you what the Federal Register says, what the DOJ press release says, and what the pattern looks like when you put it next to everything else happening at the same time.
200+ arrests. 1,600 active cases. 30 states served with litigation holds. A press conference led by the number two at DOJ. Over a mail carrier who says he was lazy.
The architecture is running. On every lane. At every level. In every direction.
You decide what it means.
I am the guy on the couch, and you have been debriefed.
@CouchGuy17 @Homeranger17 @drawandstrike @Conspiracy1717 @AstuteActual @JeskoRiot
🤔TIMELINES, PATTERNS, POST MARKS & ONE MORE RUN
Here's what everybody thinks happened on September 14th. The Supreme Court blocked Trump's Post Office ballot rule. Mail voting is safe. Story over.
That's not what I think happened.
Picture a bridge
An old bridge has a crack in it. Not a rumor the engineers who own the bridge wrote it down in their own inspection report.
So somebody designs a new bridge.
Then a court says: you can't switch bridges yet. Not this year.
So everybody drives over the old bridge one more time.
That's where we are. Here's the real version.
The crack
Last November the Post Office added a new section to its own rulebook. Section 608.11. Effective Christmas Eve.
What it says: the postmark on your envelope shows the date a machine first processed it at a regional facility not the day you dropped it in the box. They don't postmark every piece of mail. And the gap between mailing and stamping is going to widen, because they're consolidating operations into regional hubs to save money.
Their own language: the postmark is not a "perfectly reliable indicator" of the date of mailing.
The Post Office says this changed nothing. They say they only wrote down how it always worked. Fine. Take them at their word it doesn't matter either way.
What matters: the thing that decides whether your ballot counts is now officially described, by the agency that applies it, as unreliable.
Then the Supreme Court made the crack load-bearing
June 29th. Watson v. RNC. Five to four.
The Court held that federal law doesn't require your ballot to arrive by Election Day only to be cast by then. So states can count ballots postmarked by Election Day that show up inside their own grace window.
Everybody called it a win for mail voting. Maybe it is.
But look at the mechanics. Six months after the Post Office wrote down that the postmark can't be fully trusted, the Supreme Court made the postmark the thing that decides.
One detail almost nobody reported: Justice Kavanaugh dissented in that case. He was against the grace period in June. Remember that. It matters in about ninety seconds.
Then somebody designed a new bridge
A unique barcode on every ballot envelope going out and coming back. States upload voter data to a federal portal. The Post Office scans and verifies before accepting the ballot.
No postmark required. Every ballot tracked individually, end to end.
If the federal government holding that list bothers you, that's a real objection and not a stupid one. Hold onto it.
Then the court said not yet and how is the whole story
September 14th. The Supreme Court refused to let the rule take effect for this election.
Read the concurrence. Kavanaugh wrote that there is "at least a fair prospect" the rule falls inside the Post Office's own statutory authority. His objection wasn't the power. It was the calendar state and local officials don't have enough time to implement it before November.
Thomas and Alito would have let it start immediately.
Nobody on that Court said the Post Office lacks the authority to do this.
Now put Kavanaugh's June vote next to his September vote. He doesn't like the postmark system. He thinks the fix is probably legal. He won't change the rules ten weeks out. That's one consistent position, not a neutral shrug.
And here's the part that matters most:
A thing blocked because it's illegal stays blocked forever. A thing blocked because you were late is blocked until you're early.
Late fixes itself. Every single day.
So here's the hypothesis
The old system has to run one more time. In a real federal election. After its weak point was documented by the agency that operates it, demonstrated in an actual election, and after a replacement was designed and shelved over timing.
November isn't the fight. November is the test.
If mail voting runs clean, the people who say no federal redesign is needed just won the argument with evidence instead of theory. That's a real outcome and it's on the table.
If it breaks in the same specific way the Post Office already described late postmarks on ballots that were mailed on time then whoever brings that rule back in 2027 isn't speculating. They're holding a documented defect, a written warning, a designed fix, a delay, and a consequence. All in one chronological record.
In 2026 the argument was: we found a problem and want to rebuild. That's easy to call premature.
In 2027 the argument becomes: the problem was documented, a state demonstrated it, the fix was built, the fix was delayed, and then the problem happened.
Same request. Completely different weight.
We already have a preview. From last month.
This is the part missing from every version of this story I've seen.
Washington's August primary. 20,267 ballots rejected for late postmarks up from 16,131 in 2024. A 32% jump in the rate. On roughly a hundred thousand fewer ballots cast.
In 19 of Washington's 39 counties the rate more than doubled. In two it more than quadrupled.
Snohomish County ran a controlled test during the February special election mailing dummy ballot envelopes on a schedule to see what happened. Fewer than half the envelopes mailed on the morning of Election Day were postmarked in time to count. One batch sent Priority Mail, clearly marked as ballots, took twenty days to reach the facility.
Oregon is showing the same surge.
The bridge already groaned once. In a real election. Six weeks ago.
Now the part that cuts against me. Read it twice.
This is not hitting who you'd assume.
Nineteen of the twenty counties with the worst increases are small rural counties. Ten counties saw rejections go down and they're the big metros. King. Pierce. Spokane. Clark.
In two rural Washington counties that vote reliably Republican, ballots rejected for late postmarks were more than four percent of every ballot cast.
If somebody engineered this to tilt an election, they engineered it backwards.
What the numbers actually track is distance from a processing facility. Not party. Not ideology. Geography and a truck schedule.
That is the single most important fact in this entire file, and it undercuts the exciting version of my own argument. So it goes here, in the middle, not buried at the bottom.
And the Post Office's own number: through August 28th they moved 233.3 million pieces of election mail this fiscal year at 97.94% on time. That's their figure. It's on the record. Weigh it.
The boring explanation which might be the right one
The Post Office is closing and consolidating facilities to save billions. Rural service degraded as a genuine side effect. An administration pursued a policy it campaigned on. Courts applied the ordinary rule against changing election procedures at the last minute. States defended their jurisdiction.
Nobody coordinated anything. Every fact I just gave you fits that story too.
I'm not telling you which one is true. I'm telling you both fit and the boring one is not the weaker of the two.
What I'm saying is narrower than what you probably want me to say: a system can benefit from an outcome it fought to prevent. The Post Office filed two emergency applications in four days trying to stop this delay. Nobody arranged this. It happened. And it produces evidence anyway.
That's not a conspiracy. That's how repeated games work.
One thing that isn't a hypothesis
Do not mail your ballot on Election Day. Do not mail it three days before. Use a county drop box if you have one. If you're rural and you have to mail it, mail it the day it arrives.
That advice is correct whether I'm right about any of this or not.
Check me yourself. DMM Section 608.11, effective December 24, 2025. Watson v. Republican National Committee, No. 24-1260, decided June 29, 2026. Executive Order 14399, March 31, 2026. United States Postal Service v. California, No. 26A305, September 14, 2026.
Every one of those is public and searchable. Don't take my word for it. That's the entire point.
I am the guy on the couch, and you have been debriefed.
@CouchGuy17 @Homeranger17 @drawandstrike
Not-Two retweeted
BEFORE YOU BURN THE HOUSE
I keep hearing people talk about civil war like it’s weather coming over the ridge. “Burn it down! Let the whole thing break! Start again in the ashes!”
Reckless words from folks who still have a ballot sitting on the table.
Before you speak of rifles, use the piece of paper men once crossed oceans and battlefields to earn. If you curse the Republic as dead, make damn sure you showed up while it was still breathing.
There’s nothing martial or noble about surrendering early.
A warrior doesn’t abandon the wall because the night is long. He holds until holding is impossible. He also spends every round before drawing the blade. And exhausts every lawful avenue because once blood answers politics, nobody controls what comes next.
Honor demands you MUST vote. Not because voting is sacred. Because war is.
If the darkest hour comes, let your conscience be clean enough to say you held the line until the line itself was gone.
War is the last argument of a people who have already spent every other word.
So, have you?
Not-Two retweeted
A lot of people are getting paid to say things to keep you home on November 3
Don't be stupid
Get out and Vote Red
Not-Two retweeted
If you don't vote, you're screwing over the rest of us who want to make sure Trump and team have 2 more years to get things done.
You're not teaching a lesson to any R in office that you're pissed at.
You are screwing over your neighbors.
Get off your butt and VOTE.
Not-Two retweeted
This is what democrats do
Obamacare was giving illegals free healthcare on our dime until Vance and Oz dropped 760,000 of them. 315,000 plans canceled.
Corrupt unions got bigger forcing people onto Obamacare. Brokers got paid. The Clinton Foundation took foreign cash, sold access, and called it charity while that whole crowd protected the law that kept the money moving.
ActBlue ran the donations. Same working-class names used over and over. Thousand-dollar totals in tiny hits like regular people suddenly donated 200 times. Prepaid cards. Fake papers. They looked the other way.
Daycares. Fake clinics. Layers of fraud. We got the bill. Blue states covered for it.
Vote Red.
Not-Two retweeted
There is no such thing as right and left. Those are made up terms to keep you stuck in a false prison. The same is true with R's and D's. The is no difference between the traditional parties which is why the overall policy never changes despite the party in charge changing. I can't believe I still have to point that out.
Replying to @ColonelTowner
Define a classic liberal? We classify the left into liberal & democrat. Democrat is someone that leans left. Liberal is far left of that. I can see JA being a democrat. Democrats & Republicans are not that far off of their ideals really. Liberals are insane.
Not-Two retweeted
Anyone saying not to vote is an idiot.
Of course you have to vote if they get in meaning the democrats it’ll get even worse.
You can be upset about some policies but to not vote makes you an idiot.
Not-Two retweeted
In popular parlance this is called, "Winning"
Macron knows what's happening in the French bond markets. That's why Lagarde is moving on the Pontes (digital euro) so quickly. They need liquidity rails and they know the US will charge them both arms and legs for them unless they stop supporting Ukraine AND Iran.
So, no Manny, you aren't getting anything from Trump until you stop being middle management for Davos. We could cut off diesel exports and you'll be hanging from a lamp post inside a month.
The urgency is the signal... Macron came to Trump asking for relief now... reopen Hormuz without waiting for a larger agreement, secure the Red Sea routes without widening the war and stop the strikes on energy infrastructure before prices climb any higher...
Then he told us why... the pressure is already reaching through the energy system and directly into the purchasing power of the French people...
That is desperation spoken through diplomatic language... Europe can no longer absorb what is moving across these connected theaters and Macron knows the window is closing...
He did not come carrying a European solution... he came to Trump looking for one... that's the tell...
Not-Two retweeted
This is absolutely incorrect. I have been the Washington Bureau Chief (or Washington Political Editor — previous title) of Breitbart since October 2015. I was a reporter at Breitbart from December 2012 until then. So I’ve been here 14 years basically. I know every in and out of this fight.
We did NOT have pool access during Biden which was NOT a decision by the Biden White House but by the WHCA. So it’s actually WORSE than Vance is saying. The media themselves ganged up on us and in a totally underhanded way altered their rules to try to silence us. The WHCA is a corrupt organization and @JacquiHeinrich knows this all and yet does nothing to fix it.
Here’s the truth of what happened: We actually got our first hard badge during the end of the Obama administration. The Obama White House was actually very nice to us, and while we had clear political disagreements they were fine to work with and we did great stories from there. We had hired our first White House correspondent then, and he covered the White House and regularly attended press briefings. He also occasionally did pool coverage. It was a huge moment for us.
We had the hard badge credentialed White House correspondent up through the beginning of Biden and believe it or not, the Biden White House did allow us into some briefings. Whether they called on us was a different story. Happened occasionally. But we never had hard badge problems actually. To be clear, at some point during Biden Administration, we went separate ways with our then White House correspondent and didn’t refill the role until Trump term 2 so we didn’t have a hard badge correspondent during that time. But that was our decision not Biden White House — who to be clear and I’ve seen some of them talking about this never stripped us of that.
But there is a MASSIVE difference between access to the briefing room and briefings and pool access and that’s where the legacy establishment media are so underhanded and dishonest.
Up until THIS administration pool access had been solely determined by the WHCA. The WHCA when Trump won the first time colluded with the Senate Press Gallery to change its membership rules — this happened early 2017 — to strip us of our voting membership which we began under the Obama administration. The Senate Press Gallery stripped us of our Capitol credentials based on a lie — that has since been rectified and we have them on the Hill again — and the WHCA stripped us of voting membership, which we had, by changing its rules arbitrarily.
The WHCA does NOT allow under these new arbitrary rules any member without voting rights to have POOL ACCESS. Pool is the key — it’s where the President and key members of the administration interact with a smaller group of press daily than the broader entire White House press corps. That’s like when you see the president taking questions in the Oval Office or something.
So we were stripped from the pool BY THE REST OF THE MEDIA during TRUMP TERM 1. Biden did not fix this during his term; Trump term 2 HAS FIXED IT, they added new media to the pool and we regularly have our White House correspondent in the pool and he asks great newsworthy questions often of the President, Vice President, and cabinet officials.
The WHCA still does not allow people like us to be voting members; it still does not allow people like us to be members of the pool. The ONLY reason we have that access is because the Trump White House has gone out of their way to add the new media components to press coverage and overrode the WHCA to add new media to the pool.
So it’s actually way more complicated than what Vance is saying— in fact the truth makes the media look even worse because it was the MEDIA who censored us thereby making all these people whining about what Trump is doing massive hypocrites (as far as I’m concerned for what it’s worth I could care less whether they have press badges and what not but the idea they are crusaders for the First Amendment is ridiculous nonsense) — but what Sam is saying here is absolutely untrue. Because of the WHCA we didn’t have pool access then. So it’s technically not Biden’s fault or Trump fault in term one, but until Trump term 2 the White House didn’t lift a finger to help us when the rest of the media ganged up on us to try to silence us. Because of what @karolineleavitt and her team did in this administration, Trump term 2 is actually genuinely the most transparent administration I’ve covered and that dates back to Obama — I covered both of Obama’s terms, Trump’s first, Biden, and now Trump term 2.
All that said, we should all be asking ourselves why a cartel of global corporations— the WHCA is exactly that — is so hellbent on silencing an outlet with approximately just under a hundred journalists with laptops. Why do they hate us so much? Maybe it’s because time and again we continually show them up and beat them to absolutely massive stories. Maybe just maybe these mega corporations like FOX, CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC, NYT, WAPO, AP, etc are using their collective corporate power through a corrupt institution to silence the one little guy who regularly kicks their asses in news. Just saying.
Not-Two retweeted
I've been harping on Effective Altruism (EA) a lot lately.
This article explains the philosophy behind EA and why I consider it so alarming and important to stop.
Look forward to my project release mapping the EA network tomorrow.
Not-Two retweeted
If you’re angry because your specific candidate didn’t win and now you’re going to sit on your couch on Election Day with your arms folded like a child, I’m just here to let you know you’re actually voting by not voting.
You’re voting for democrat socialism.
You’re voting for open borders.
You’re voting for anti-Americanism.
You’re voting for no police, jails, or tough-on-crime policies.
You’re voting for a weakened military.
You’re voting for Islamic calls to prayer over the loudspeaker.
You’re voting for Sharia Law.
You’re voting for reduced educational standards because “social equity.”
You’re voting for open corruption in our government.
You’re voting for open corruption in our elections.
You’re voting for tyranny.
So if you stay home, you’re just as much an enemy to the United States as these candidates who run on platforms that directly hurt this country. You’re a part of the problem. By not voting, you’re allowing the other side to win. That’s not okay.
Don’t stay home.
Not-Two retweeted
I am about to start publishing forecasts. Please follow my newsletter (bio) for these, which will come out as EV/Mail data comes in. I consider there to be 23 decisive seats. My map is 207 to 205 R, pending outcome of MO-5. That will move it to 208 to 204 R if it is determined the 2025 map is in place.
Here is my starting point. My color shades may mean something different than yours do.
Not-Two retweeted
This video shows why President Trump banned corrupt news outlets from the White House.
The mainstream media is the enemy of the people!
I hope POTUS airs this on Trump TV because the world deserves to see how dishonest our media is towards him!
Not-Two retweeted
Read Seth. He’s wise.
I don’t know who needs to hear this, but Democrats spending money in NH, MN, and MI doesn’t correlate to a world in which they are favorites in Trump +11 or more states and about to rip off a bunch of 20 point R House seats.
This platform is full of the worst doom-spreaders on the planet. And we wonder why people need to be on meds to control their depression and crazy.
Not-Two retweeted
None of our political problems bother me as much as the fact that it is 2026 and people still read polls and panic over what they say.
Please do yourself a favor and read about how polling is conducted. Response rates used to be nearly 40%. 2 in 5 people would pick up and talk to you.
Now it is common for response rates to be in low single digits. A handful of people out of 100 will answer. And people most likely to answer skew hard left, especially in a midterm when all they do is hate the president.
The trade is broken.