Mike Alderson FRSA

EMBARRASSING: Donald Trump nearly loses his ENTIRE HEAD OF HAIR while climbing the steps of Air Force One on his way to a Florida rally. What the hell is happening here?

Para entender la magnitud de lo que está ocurriendo hoy en Polonia, debemos separar la crisis política real (que es grave) de la desinformación digital (que está magnificando el conflicto con imágenes falsas). ¿Qué pasó exactamente? Hoy se terminó de producir una colisión institucional directa entre sus dos máximos líderes políticos: el primer ministro de centroderecha Donald Tusk (pro-Unión Europea) y el presidente conservador y nacionalista Karol Nawrocki, quienes pertenecen a bandos opuestos. El primer ministro Tusk ordenó un operativo policial en las oficinas del Tribunal Constitucional en Varsovia. El objetivo de fondo es destituir a la cúpula judicial actual, puesta a dedo por el gobierno anterior, a la que consideran leal a la oposición y que argumentan fue nombrada de forma ilegal en el pasado. La policía rodeó el edificio luego de que estallara una rebelión interna en el Tribunal. Una de las nuevas juezas de la corte, Korwin-Piotrowska, emitió un dictamen denunciando que el presidente del Tribunal, Bogdan Święczkowski, y su vicepresidenta, les impedían ilegalmente ir a trabajar y asumir sus cargos. Basándose en esta denuncia de "obstrucción", el operativo ordenado por el gobierno intervino para suspender a la cúpula judicial. Fuera del edificio, manifestantes y policías chocaron en medio de disturbios, lo que obligó a los agentes a ingresar físicamente a las instalaciones. El presidente Karol Nawrocki -quien además tiene el poder constitucional de vetar las leyes del Primer Ministro y es aliado de los jueces atrincherados- se enteró de la redada mientras volaba en un viaje oficial hacia Senegal. Ante la gravedad de la situación, ordenó dar la vuelta a su avión presidencial en pleno vuelo para regresar de urgencia a Varsovia. Para el ciudadano común, el Tribunal Constitucional es el equivalente a la Corte Suprema en otros países: es el árbitro final que decide si una ley es válida o no. Si el Primer Ministro quiere pasar reformas clave y el Tribunal está controlado por sus enemigos políticos, su gobierno queda totalmente paralizado. Por eso es una pieza tan codiciada por los bandos en disputa. Y no es una simple pelea política; los analistas europeos lo describen como una crisis constitucional extrema. El Poder Ejecutivo (el Primer Ministro) desconoce la legitimidad del Máximo Tribunal del país (Poder Judicial) y usa a la fuerza policial para intervenirlo. Al cruzarse la línea de usar a la policía contra una alta corte, la oposición ya está calificando el acto como un "golpe de Estado" institucional. La estabilidad democrática del país está bajo una enorme presión. A pesar de la gravedad real de los hechos descritos arriba, en redes sociales (X, TikTok, Facebook) se está difundiendo una versión magnificada y distorsionada que habla de una "guerra civil" o un "motín militar". Es una crisis política y no un golpe militar: El ejército no se ha sublevado, no hay tanques en las calles tratando de derrocar al gobierno, ni el presidente ordenó un asalto armado. Imágenes fuera de contexto: Se están difundiendo videos virales de miles de personas con bengalas rojas, humo y aspecto de insurrección violenta en Varsovia que no son de hoy. Son imágenes descontextualizadas de la marcha del Día de la Independencia de Polonia del año 2017. Todo se reduce a una disputa por el poder judicial entre el gobierno de Donald Tusk y el bloque de Karol Nawrocki. Además, la crisis no se desató hoy por completo: semanas atrás, manifestantes de la oposición conservadora ya habían bloqueado los accesos al edificio para protestar por el nombramiento de nuevos jueces vinculados al actual parlamento. La siguiente etapa de la crisis se producirá con el regreso de Nawrocki al territorio polaco. Hasta entonces, es todo lo que puede informarse.

An interesting story in the Times which highlights the foolishness of giving HMRC the power to take money straight out of people's bank accounts. Tax lawyer Simon Evans only found out that he apparently owed HM Revenue & Customs money when it was extracted from his bank account. Last month he got a letter from HMRC to say it had taken £2,300 out of his account because it claimed he had unpaid tax. “There wasn’t a dispute, we’d never heard from HMRC nor had our accountant who has handled our taxes for many years,” Evans said. “It turns out that HMRC had sent letters to an old address in London that we haven’t lived at in years,” he said. “This is despite the fact that all of our Companies House and tax returns are up to date with our correct address and our accountant’s address." “If we owed this money we would of course have paid it. We wanted to know if there had been an administrative oversight, but over several calls no one at HMRC could tell us what we owed, or from what period it was owed. Our accountant is still trying to get to the bottom of it." This is what happens when you give an incompetent public sector bureaucracy the power to take money out of people's bank accounts.

THE MOST INCOMPETENT WAR IN HISTORY: SARAH PAINE ON TRUMP’S IRAN DISASTER Dr. Sarah Paine, a leading historian of great-power conflict and strategy, delivers a blunt verdict on the Iran war. She calls it one of the most incompetent wars in human history. The decision ignored basic principles of assessment, put maximum costs on America itself, and left permanent damage to the country’s power and alliances. This is not hindsight—it is the predictable result of hubris meeting reality. THE CORE VERDICT ➡️ “The Iran war is probably one of the most incompetent wars in human history.” ➡️ A competent war puts the costs on the enemy and minimizes them for yourself. ➡️ This one did the opposite. THE COST CATASTROPHE ➡️ It trashed the US economy. ➡️ It blew the US alliance system. ➡️ Iran is hurting, but the collateral damage is taking down the world’s economy. ➡️ That transforms the United States from a partner into an annoyance—and for many, a primary adversary—because it is threatening their economies. ➡️ “That’s breathtakingly incompetent.” THE STRATEGIC BLIND SPOT ➡️ Any serious assessment looks at the enemy’s strengths and your own weaknesses, plus everyone else who might intervene. ➡️ That was absent. ➡️ The first thing Iran would do is shut Hormuz. Narrow seas close in wartime. Ukraine already showed this with the Black Sea. ➡️ Shore artillery, mines, and other tools stop traffic. There is no mystery here. ➡️ The big naval base in Bahrain becomes unreachable. The fallback is Diego Garcia, 2,500 miles away in the middle of nowhere. “That would be a mess.” THE HUBRIS THAT MADE IT POSSIBLE ➡️ The people making the calls are historically unqualified for the job. That makes them profoundly dangerous. ➡️ Type A hubris assumes all decisions that matter happen in the United States. ➡️ Type B hubris assumes being good at one thing makes you good at everything. ➡️ Half-court tennis: you only watch your own side and never study the other team. ➡️ The Iranians understand Americans far better than Americans understand them. THE UNFEASIBLE OBJECTIVE ➡️ Trying to “solve” Iran with 90 million people was never realistic. ➡️ Nazi Germany had roughly 80 million and required an occupation force of about 1.5 million just to hold it after the war—before counting everyone else. ➡️ The goal was unattainable. Pursuing it guarantees overextension and a bad ending. ➡️ The lesson the world takes is simple: get a nuke. The war incentivized proliferation. ➡️ This was a pivotal error. The choices that existed before are gone and will not return. “We will never be the trusted partner ever again. It’s done.” THE BOTTOM LINE The Iran war did not merely fail. It maximized American costs, destroyed trust with allies, and handed every rival a clearer reason to treat the United States as a threat to their own prosperity. Competence would have contained the problem at affordable cost. Hubris chose the opposite. This is what permanent strategic damage looks like. #IranWar #SarahPaine #StrategicIncompetence #HormuzDisaster #USHubris #AllianceCollapse #CatastrophicMistake HT: YouTube The Diary Of A CEO

NEWS: Trump admin officials want US companies to accept the Russian diesel currently crossing the Atlantic. But American firms want nothing to do with it. They’re very scared of the legal and reputational risk, industry sources tell me and @jstein_sun washingtonsun.com/whitehouse…

BREAKING: The U.S. cancels plans for a photo with top G20 diplomats after Europeans objected to standing beside Russia, AP sources say. apnews.com/article/g20-rubio…

Trump Administration Halts Funding for Key Ukraine Security Programs The INCLE program helps Ukraine’s police, border guards and other security personnel protect civilians and critical infrastructure. washingtonsun.com/foreign-po…

😁 Ushakov is outraged that Ukrainians have “once again” defied Trump and are pounding Russian oil refineries “They disobeyed and, I would even say, are ignoring these requests,” Putin’s aide said. Today, Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian oil refineries after a fairly long pause. We’ve all seen what happened in Novokuybyshevsk today.